US midterms could ease protectionism

US midterms could ease protectionism

Trump may have to tone down tariffs

President Donald Trump faced White House reporters early Thursday (Thailand time) to discuss election results. (AP photo)
President Donald Trump faced White House reporters early Thursday (Thailand time) to discuss election results. (AP photo)

Although the results of the US mid-term elections may not greatly affect Washington's foreign policy, pundits expect they will work to tone down the Trump administration's highly protectionist trade policy.

The Democrats won control of the US House of Representatives and pledged to hold the Republicans, who retained control of the Senate, accountable after a tumultuous two years in the White House.

Despite the mixed results, US President Donald Trump's first tweet after the results came out heralded a celebratory mood. "Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!" he tweeted.

However, analysts said yesterday's results would not only provide a check on Mr Trump's power but also spur more debate on America's policies for the Asia-Pacific.

Thammasat University political scientist Prapat Thepchatree said the results were expected given the president's dwindling approval ratings as more voters sought change.

"US foreign policy might not be directly affected but when it comes to trade, the new checks-and-balance equation might put a break on President Trump's extreme protectionism and the [Sino-US] trade war," Prof Prapat said.

Officials at the Kasikorn Research Centre said US economic policy would continue to adhere to the philosophy of reciprocal benefits when dealing with other countries, but no more "pressuring measures" were likely to be added.

Although 2019 could be a tough year for many economies, the trade war should ease by 2020 which will benefit Thailand's international trade, they said in an article released yesterday.

Mr Trump and his fellow Republicans consolidated their control of the US Senate in Tuesday's midterms, following a divisive campaign marked by fierce clashes over race and immigration.

But they lost their majority in the House, a setback for Mr Trump after a campaign that became a de facto referendum on his leadership.

Democrats will now head House committees that can investigate the president's tax returns, possible business conflicts of interest, and any links between his 2016 election campaign and Russia.

They could also force Mr Trump to scale back his legislative ambitions, possibly dooming his promises to fund a border wall with Mexico, pass a second major tax-cut package, or carry out his hardline policies on trade, Reuters reported.

Chulalongkorn University political scientist Panitan Wattanayagorn said the Trump administration's efforts to develop policies directed at Asia would be harder to pass through Congress.

"We also have yet to see the changes if President Trump decides to reshuffle his cabinet," he said.

"His Indo-Pacific policy, [foreign] loans and legislation might become more complicated and [fiercely] debated in the House. The Democrats might favour free trade more than the president does, although he still has the power of veto," Assoc Prof Panitan said.

Kriangkrai Tiannukul, vice chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said the 2018 mid-terms would affect the global economy and international politics.

"The business sector was hoping to see this balance in Congress because it can rein in Trump's power and it will have a positive effect in terms of directly and indirectly impacting global trade and Thailand," he added.

The Kasikorn Research Centre added that legislation which requires Congress' approval may struggle to find a footing unless Mr Trump is prepared to accommodate the views of Democrats.

America's trade policy toward China will continue as per the status quo, researchers at the centre said, adding this could hurt the global economy next year.

This could cost Thailand trade benefits of US$3.1 billion to $4.5 billion, or 0.6-0.9% of Thai GDP, they said.

"The results of the mid-terms will affect any bills aimed at stimulating the economy, especially the budget bill, which will require more negotiations with the Democrats," they added.

"This and other factors will affect fluctuations in the value of the US dollar as well as the direction of the US economy, which could slow down significantly."

US stocks were on course to open higher today.

After an initially muted market reaction globally, futures for the three major Wall Street indexes powered higher along with global stocks.


Kornchanok Raksaseri And Lamonphet Apisitniran are Bangkok Post reporters.

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