Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will be abroad for much of the next week at the annual Asean summit taking place in Singapore. The main meeting is scheduled for Thursday, but there will also be the usual flurry of official meetings with major partners, as well as unscheduled but vital one-on-one discussions on the sidelines. Then, on Saturday and Sunday, most of the Asean leaders plus many others will meet at the Apec Summit at Port Moresby.
These are the most important international gabfests of the year on the Asean schedule. This year's gathering in the Lion City is especially notable for Prime Minister Prayut and the Thai delegation. Current Asean chairman and prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, will hand the gavel to Gen Prayut. That's the signal that Thailand is to be Asean chairman again, in 2019.
This is a doubly tough responsibility. The last time Thailand held the Asean chair, 10 years ago, it presided over the most shambolic, disorganised and downright dangerous year of the group's diplomatic history. While he had won the premiership with the blessing and help of the military, then-premier Abhisit Vejjajiva was not only unable to provide safety even for the top Asean dignitaries while in Thailand -- he himself came under mortal threat.
Thailand's role as Asean chairman in 2008-2009 was ignored and actually undermined by street protesters clad both in yellow and red. From mid-2008 to the end of the year, the anti-Thaksin People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) blockaded streets and then seized control of both Bangkok airports. When judges unseated the government and the military put in Mr Abhisit, it was the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship that ran amok.
In April of 2009, all security broke down and the red shirts showed the ugliest possible face of the country to Southeast Asia and the world. They violently stormed the summit site at a Pattaya hotel. Leaders fled the mob by helicopter. It took six months before the Thai government could organise a replacement summit, tense from start to finish because of a threat of more violence that never materialised.
The only outstanding and obvious achievement of Gen Prayut's 54-month regime has been to end all imminent threats of such violence. That, in fact, took place within the first two days of his seizure of power. And in isolation, the end of discourteous, sometimes violent, always threatening mobs on the street is undoubtedly a good thing. There is a question, however, of whether people of ill will intend to restart such behaviour next year. For while his regime has prevented mob action since mid-2014, it has done so very little to convince the nation to voluntarily eschew such divisive activities.
Experts believe that Gen Prayut can assure Asean and Apec summit participants that the coming Thai chairmanship will be vastly different from the last one. Just last week, Bangkok Post Oped contributor and respected Chulalongkorn University political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak credibly predicted such an outcome, writing: "Thailand is unlikely to suffer from paralysing protests."
Any thinking and nation-respecting citizen would agree that when the military regime finally agrees to return the people's rights to free speech, press and assembly, every Thai must use these precious rights responsibly. Street-blocking political action is rarely justified, and the country should abandon the notion of using violence-threatening mobs against political opponents.
The last time Thailand was Asean chairman, the country erupted into violent chaos that shamed the nation around the world. Gen Prayut, whatever his personal ambitions, must now attempt to be a statesman. The country cannot afford another year of violence while serving as Asean chair.