History doesn't bode well for Prayut

History doesn't bode well for Prayut

As the country prepares to go to the polls on March 24, many who look back at history find it hard to be optimistic. Bangkok Post graphics
As the country prepares to go to the polls on March 24, many who look back at history find it hard to be optimistic. Bangkok Post graphics

It's been nearly five years under military dictatorial rule, and now finally the Thais will go to the polls for the first time on March 24.

After the Election Commission announced the date, one could almost hear an audible cry of joy going up around the country.

I don't share the delight, though. I have a foreboding that this election thing, after such a long absence, will not have a pleasant ending.

Who knows, we may not even have an election on that date. You don't need to be reminded how many times we have been deceived -- lied to, actually -- about an election date that kept shifting.

Last time we were told the election would be held on Feb 24. Both Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha and Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, as well as the junta's legal genius Wissanu Krea-ngam, all vouched for the date. Then what happened?

Some observers have warned the new date might not allow enough time for the EC to announce the results, given the complexity of election rules under the new constitution which are expected to spawn numerous complaints.

If the EC cannot finalise the results by May 9, the election will be null and void. The entire process would be reset to zero, and who knows when a new election will be called?

Some other observers believe that the powers-that-be might not want an election at all and will try to create situations that could provide an excuse for the military to intervene again.

Even if an election takes place and a new government is appointed, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that something might happen to cause it to collapse prematurely if the real power-holders decide they are not satisfied with the new executives.

These scenarios may seem pessimistic or far-fetched. But events during the past four and a half years have proved that the military regime is willing to do anything to ensure its grip on power regardless of public opinion. They are desperate and know no shame.

Look at the four ministers who just resigned to lead the new Palang Pracharath party. They have acted as if they are doing the nation a big favour by stepping down at such a late date. Ex-Commerce Minister Sontirat Sontijirawong boasted that the four have set a precedent for ethical conduct because no politicians have resigned while in office to engage in political campaigning before.

Thanks, but no thanks. There really is no favour here, not after having installed mechanisms to ensure maximum leverage for the military-supported party and hastily implemented several vote-generating projects.

Meanwhile, the junta supremo himself continues to keep people guessing whether he will accept a nomination as a prime ministerial candidate from a party.

What's there to guess, really? It has been such a charade it's gotten boring. We even know the name of said party, don't we? The name that happens to coincide with the regime's major populist campaign. The general also continues to function with full authority as prime minister, disregarding the long-held tradition that the sitting government perform its duty in an acting capacity as soon as an election is called.

Judging by his performance since taking state power, his refusal to abide by traditions or laws is par for the course. He has shown that he will go to any lengths to hold on to his power.

In a way, his tenacity may be seen as fear for his future. Now that is a surprise considering that he has spent all this time in office meticulously paving the way to his re-assumption of power after the election.

What's there to fear? History must have weighed heavily in Gen Prayut's mind. No military regime in modern Thai history that has tried to extend its power through popular elections has enjoyed a happy ending.

In the early 1970s, Field Marshall Thanom Kittikachorn resorted to staging a coup against his own government because the then-parliament became too unruly. But the popular uprising of Oct 14, 1973, toppled his government, forcing him to go into exile.

In 1992, Gen Suchinda Kraprayoon went back on his pledge not to take the prime ministerial post following an election that was held after he staged a coup. A popular protest ensued and he was forced to step down.

In 2006, Gen Sonthi Boonyaratglin grabbed state power but gave way to Gen Surayud Chulanont to become prime minister.

His later attempt to enter parliamentary politics by setting up his own party was overwhelmed by the People's Power Party (PPP), a reincarnation of Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai Party.

Will history come back to haunt Prayut Chan-o-cha? That's a question that he must be contemplating. The answer will decide the course of Thai politics in the foreseeable future.


Wasant Techawongtham is a former news editor, Bangkok Post.

Wasant Techawongtham

Freelance Reporter

Freelance Reporter and Managing Editor of Milky Way Press.

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