Party power games won't help economic recovery
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Party power games won't help economic recovery

The power game in the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), with the change of the party board looming, has captured huge media attention. It has occurred amid speculation the economic team, led by Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, would be ditched.

Mr Somkid keeps denying he is the leader of the government's economic team but it is undeniable that he's a key man behind economic policies and measures rolled out by the Prayut Chan-o-cha government in tackling with the country's worst economic hardship.

The speculated change in the economic team at a time when the economy has fallen into an abyss raised questions whether the team has not met government's expectations.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council lowered its GDP forecast to a contraction of at least 5% this year. Other economic agencies warn of five or six million of job losses. Another question that comes up: Will the dismissal of the economic team, if it happens, mean a change in economic policy and direction; or is the whole thing just about party politics, with factions competing for power and the outcome that the Somkid team has to go?

A cabinet reshuffle is common for any administration. However, a change of economic team at such a turbulent time when the country is trying to recover from the economic crisis is worrisome.

Is the economic policy a failure and if so what will the new team, if there is one, do to win investors' confidence? During the transition, if the new team cannot come up with a clear policy and direction, the economic recovery could be set back.

The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has intensified the slump as a result of a 2019 trade war which caused several million job losses and pay cuts.

The PPRP power games coming at such a difficult time have caused public resentment, with politicians thinking about their personal interest and power when many people are struggling.

More importantly, the shenanigans look like a repeat of the political games which have dragged Thailand into a never-ending series of military coups since 1932. Political stagnation has bored the younger generation who decided to go for "new politics" when casting their ballots in the 2019 election even though it was not clear how those options would provide a solution to national problems.

But the economic crisis should be a turning point for Thailand to adapt and tackle global economic fluctuations. This means depending less on exports, creating a balanced economy and strengthening the local economy.

We should take a look at the 400 billion baht economic recovery plan. Of particular interest is a plan to set up a fund for farmer rehabilitation, worth 55 billion baht, by the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives. This is the country's largest public investment under the sufficient economy principle.

If successful, the farming sector which is considered the poorest in the country will be strengthened and become the main engine driving the economy. Then, Thailand will be stronger from the inside. This will be the country's first big agricultural reform and the most important experiment in accordance with sufficiency economy.

The rehabilitation project is divided into three smaller ones that will be implemented in a three-year time frame.

First, a short-term project to strengthen food security at community level, following the basics of sufficiency economy and new theory. To create food security with sustainable farming for farmers and their families affected by Covid-19 pandemic, the first step is to provide them with professional knowledge. The project aims to help around 300,000 farmers to be independent.

Second, a project to strengthen community economies, based on the second and third phases of sufficiency economy and new theory. The second step is to create inter-dependence among villagers while the third is to create a community network, to support small and micro community enterprise in terms of production and marketing.

The project aims to support 16,000 communities. Under the project, each community enterprise will receive financial support of up to 50% of the investment, or one million baht maximum.

This means the project will require 16 billion baht for the first year and another 16 billion baht for the second, totaling 32 billion baht.

Last, a project to strengthen the economic foundations, to drive the third phase of sufficiency economy and new theory, which is to link the dots in the network, comprising cooperatives, the agricultural sector, farmers, village fund, community financial organisation development, small and micro community enterprise, and farming operators.

This is to build security in careers and community revenue as well as the product supply chain. The community will also be equipped with knowledge to provide agricultural services, community tourism and other services.

A total of 7,255 communities will receive financial support up to 50% of the investment. The total budget for the project is estimated at 21 billion baht.

The coronavirus pandemic hit the country hard, with job losses and an economic slump that will force the economy to adopt a "new normal" culture, with less reliance on external factors such as exports and tourism.

The path ahead is tough and what's more worrying than the economy is the resurgence of old politics, which we need to leave behind.


Wichit Chantanusornsiri is a senior economics reporter, Bangkok Post.

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