As the reopening of the economy has become imperative, living with the Covid-19 pandemic has become a reality. But the balance between risks and opportunities must be calibrated with transparency and accountability. As Thailand's Covid numbers seem to be more than meets the eye, the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has the responsibility to keep the public squarely informed. While moving on alongside Covid is unavoidable, the public needs to know that Thailand's virtual strategy now is to rely on vaccinations and immunity from catching the virus itself as infections and fatalities will rise.
As an open economy with two thirds of its GDP reliant on the export of goods and services, particularly tourism, Thailand should try to do all it can to create trust and reassurance for other countries to see that we have done well in Covid control and management. Accurate, reliable and objective criteria and data are needed to build trust among stakeholders at home and abroad. As these data become available, a clear approach and attendant guidelines need to be communicated in a convincing fashion to engender trust.
The Prayut government's decision to reopen the country by halving the number of days required for state quarantine for international travellers from 14 to seven days after Oct 1 and to waive it altogether a month later is a welcome measure. But the government needs to back it up with objective criteria and reliable data that are convincing to stakeholders.
Reopening Thailand to the world is one side of the story. How Thailand is perceived abroad is the other. For example, a major benchmark is what kind of curbs international travellers to Thailand face when they return home. As the host country, Thailand can put out Covid numbers as it sees fit but the true test is how other countries perceive Thailand's Covid numbers. If Thailand is regarded as a high-risk country by others, foreign tourists will be less likely to come as they may face quarantine restrictions when they go back.
The United Kingdom's recent decision to put Thailand on the "red list" is a case in point. While many people may feel it is unfair as Thailand seems to be doing better with declining daily caseloads, the absolute numbers of infections and deaths do not present the full picture, particularly on the evolving dynamics of pandemic management and on Thailand's performance in comparison with other countries.
Take, for example, the ratio of daily tests per one thousand people, the positive rate (the share of tests returning as positive), and the vaccination rate. These metrics are used internationally to consider how well countries are monitoring and managing their pandemic situation. More importantly, these statistics are available on websites like "Our World in Data". When these criteria are considered, the real situation in Thailand may be far more worrying than what the government would like us to believe.
The World Health Organization (WHO) uses these metrics as an indicator of the severity of the pandemic. According to criteria published in May 2020, a positive rate of less than 5% is one indicator the pandemic is under control in a given country.
It is alarming to see that Thailand ranks among the highest in Southeast Asia, with a positive rate of 26% compared to Singapore's 1.2% just two weeks ago. Although Thailand's positive rate has been on the decline since its peak of nearly 40% last August, it is still far from the 5% threshold recommended by the WHO.
A ratio like the positive rate is a good metric to compare situations across countries. Because it indicates how adequately countries are testing relative to the size of the outbreak, it shows how different countries properly monitor and control the spread of the virus. Countries with more outbreaks need to do more testing, not less.
It is therefore worrying that Thailand's daily test rate has been on the decline since July 2021. From the peak on 21 July 2021, when one in one thousand was tested, the rate for Thailand declined to 0.76 per thousand people on Sept 16, the latest available data on Our World in Data.
With the Covid-19 task force's focus only on the absolute number of daily infections, this could raise doubts whether the government is trying to present just one side of the story to appease negative sentiment and to lift confidence. The declining rate of testing seems to coincide with the plan to reopen the economy in 120 days, announced in mid-June.
The low number of tests compared to other countries in the region also does not help strengthen trust in Thailand's pandemic management. Compared to other countries in the region, Thailand is among the countries with the lowest rate of testing. Singapore, for example, continues to test more than 10 people per one thousand daily, despite its high vaccination rate. At the peak of testing, which varies across countries, Singapore examined approximately 15 people per thousand, Malaysia 5, and Vietnam 4, whereas Thailand has yet to exceed one per thousand.
Low testing and low vaccination rates are not the way to control the pandemic, let alone to build sufficient international trust. While Thailand's vaccine procurement and its mixture of vaccine types have been debated, the country's distribution of vaccines also merits consideration. A current hot topic in many Western countries is the booster shot rollout to keep up immunity antibodies as the risk of increasing infections rise as wintery weather will soon arrive. Both the US and the UK each launched their Covid vaccine booster campaigns in September to provide a third dose to people with underlying health risks, particularly the elderly.
Critics of the plan in both countries raise concerns that the booster shot should not be widely rolled out as many people remain unvaccinated. As of September 29, over 65% of the UK's population had been fully vaccinated, while the US equivalent is slightly lower at 55% due partly to anti-vaccine sentiment.
On the other hand, Thailand's ratio of booster doses administered per 100 people, as of Sept 22, was 0.89% compared to 0.69% in the US. If we compare the vaccination rate per population, Cambodia already has 78% coverage (65% full and 13% partial), the US is at 64% (55% and 8.4% respectively), while Thailand only has 42% of its population vaccinated (only 23% fully and 19% partially). Having booster shots going to frontline workers is one thing, but undoubtedly the privileged few are having access to boosters while many people are still not being vaccinated at all. Thailand should be less focused on the third booster shot and pay more attention to overall coverage from the first and second doses.
Overall, Thailand is showing few infections because it is testing fewer people, while the well-connected few can access a third shot -- and their preference is an mRNA vaccine like Pfizer -- while many people have not even had a first dose.
Reopening the economy is understandable but controlling and manipulating numbers with subjective and privileged vaccine access comes with risks that the government is not telling the people.
Pavida Pananond, PhD, is a professor of International Business at Thammasat Business School, Thammasat University, and Thitinan Pongsudhirak, PhD, is professor at the Faculty of Political Science and director of its Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University.