From today, Thailand will let fully vaccinated tourists from 63 countries and territories enter the kingdom without mandatory quarantine, as the government bids to resuscitate the economy.
The reopening policy was pledged by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. On June 16 --when the daily caseload was soaring and government had fumbled over vaccine procurement -- the prime minister vowed the country would reopen in 120 days.
At that time, many wondered whether the prime minister had set himself an unattainable goal. That doubt was valid. Today, the government has to some extent accomplished its plan. However, the proof is not in the punctual delivery, but what follows next.
The workload involved in reopening will be considerable. The country's vaccination rate is worryingly low. The vaccination rate of first jabs is only 59% of the population, with 43% having received their second jab and 3% a booster jab, much lower than the original target of 70% vaccination before reopening.
Daily infections remain high at 8,000-10,000 and some tourist areas such as Chiang Mai, Chon Buri and Bangkok are still struggling to curb infections.
As most countries are reopening their borders to travellers or learning to coexist with Covid-19 after almost two years of lockdowns, opening the borders is not a choice for Thailand but a necessity for its economic survival.
Three Covid-19 scenarios were sketched out by the Public Health Ministry after the reopening. First, daily infections drop to lower than 5,000 cases by January next year if Covid-19 protocols are observed and the infection rate declines by 25% from that before lockdowns.
The second scenario is infections will be stable at around 10,000 cases per day as moderate Covid-19 protocols are exercised with an 15% infection rate.
The worst scenario is a spike of infections to 40,000 cases daily by January due to all parties letting their guard down.
Everyone hopes the last scenario will not happen. Therefore, the government needs to strike a careful balance between letting economic activities resume and maintaining Covid measures, without upsetting the welcoming atmosphere.
The government will need to dedicate more resources to the high-risk sector, which is night entertainment venues.
Although the government has not allowed nightspots to resume operations in the initial stage, it must relax rules to promote tourism and help local businesses in the longer term.
There are three key areas for diminishing risk in the post-reopening wave. They are transparency in transmission data, crackdowns against illegal entry and other activities that contravene Covid preventive measures, and above all, active cooperation from the public.
In terms of healthcare, the government needs to boost bed availability for patients with serious symptoms in tourism areas, particularly the 17 provinces under the tourism pilot campaign in which quarantine for international visitors will be lifted from Nov 1.
The post-vaccination infection wave in countries like the United States, United Kingdom, Israel and Singapore with close to 70% vaccination or higher inevitably leads the imagination to terrible consequences in Thailand where almost half of the population have yet to receive even the first shot. Caution is a priority, even as the country reopens.