Thailand's key economic driver has cruised past the first six months but it could see a big speed bump ahead on the road to year's end.
Foreign visitors entering Thailand reached 11.4 million from Jan 1 to June 11, according to the Tourism and Sports Ministry. The figures already surpass the total number of arrivals last year when the country registered 11.15 million.
Thailand's hopes are much higher -- with a goal of welcoming at least 25 million foreign vacationers by the end of this year. The ministry expected 5 million of them, or one in every five, to come from China.
Some 1.13 million Chinese travelled to Thailand in the first five months and the country still needs almost 4 million more Chinese holidaymakers for the remaining seven months.
Although it appears to be an uphill task to strike the 5-million-figure target, tourism authorities believe the goal is still within reach as they always bank on a strong pickup of the Chinese when the tourist high season begins again every year.
That might not be as easy this year.
Thailand is one of the countries relying on big spenders from China to splash the cash during their vacations in the kingdom. Tourists from China accounted for 11 million out of 40 million foreign arrivals in 2019 before Covid-19 slammed its door on global travel and China closed its border, letting only a handful of people outside.
Chinese tourists slumped to merely 13,000 in 2021 and 273,000 last year. Despite the border closure, Bangkok, Pattaya, Phuket and Chiang Mai were among the top destinations favoured by the Chinese in travel surveys if they were allowed to go out again.
When the Chinese government fully reopened the border in January, Thai authorities and tourism operators greeted the decision after waiting for so long for "revenge tourism" from the Chinese after Covid-19 grounded them for so long.
The world also hoped the return of the world's second-largest economy would give the global outlook a lift due to the Chinese's appetite for imports -- from foods to fuel, machines to merchandise.
Tourism is the only reliable engine to keep the Thai economy going this year as exports are on the decline and could come to a standstill this year due to weak demand from trading partners.
The tourism market contributed to almost 20% of GDP, the biggest chunk of that from foreign spending and the rest from domestic travel prior to the Covid outbreak.
But things may not go as planned for Thailand this time.
China's economy has not posted a strong rebound since its reopening in January. Jobless rates are on the rise and exports to other overseas markets have not picked up because of weak orders from the United States and Europe.
Rising tension between Washington and Beijing strains world trade amid uncertainty about a US recession looming ahead. That prompted the People's Bank of China to project growth to be only about 5% this year, which is tepid by Chinese standards.
The problems in China could hurt the pockets of Chinese planning holidays abroad including Thailand. They could defer or even scrap their vacation schedules this year if the economy gets worse.
RBH Bank research admitted the possibility of weak outbound tourism by Chinese in the global market in the second half due to its economic slowdown, according to the Business Times of Singapore.
It will not be that bad if Tourism Authority of Thailand authorities spare Plan B to boost foreign arrivals from other countries in case the Chinese are not in the mood to travel and spend money overseas amid growing worries over the economy at home.
The TAT has promoted more visitors from India and the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, this year, after Bangkok and Riyadh restored normal ties.
But the visitors from the two regions may not be enough to fill the gap left by the Chinese.
If TAT officials really need another contingency plan, one girl can help them out. They should convince Lisa of Blackpink to come back more often. Lalisa "Lisa" Manoban has made Ayutthaya and Thai attire more popular after the Seoul-based singer posted her images at the ancient capital on Instagram in early June during a break from a Bangkok gig, as part of the band's world tour.
With more than 95 million fans following her on @lalalalisa_m, her Thai tourism promotion could give some Blink army members appetite to follow her footsteps by visiting the places in Thailand she posts on social media.
Or the TAT may need to pray for China's recovery instead.
Saritdet Marukatat is a Bangkok Post columnist and former Digital Media News Editor at the paper. Contact Saritdet at saritdet@yahoo.com