The Suu Kyi-Don meeting in Nay Pyi Taw on July 9 has given hope of "a fresh opening" to the political peace process for Myanmar as well as the implementation of the Asean Five-Point Consensus (5PC). At the upcoming Asean-related summits in early September, the 5PC will be reviewed in full with all the updates and outcomes of a myriad of efforts by the Asean chair and other Asean members to recalibrate the Asean 5PC.
At this juncture, it is pivotal to readjust the 5PC to reflect the reality on the ground. It is a new calculus out there. There could be the so-called 5PC Plus that would make the peace process more effective and deliverable. While the 5PC remains the foundation of the bloc's peace efforts, there should be new elements added to deal with the growing complexity of the armed conflict. In the past two and a half years since the 5PC was launched, new players have emerged, including armed military groups such as the National Unity Government (NUG) and People's Defense Forces (PDFs), as well as thousands of local militias. Since 1948, ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) have been fighting central power. As such, their roles remain crucial.
Today the political conflict inside the country has reached a critical point for two reasons. First, it could become a full-blown civil war as the fighting between the military junta and resistance forces continues unabated. Assessments of the ground situation might vary, but all stakeholders agree if the conflict continues, the toll on civilians will continuously increase.
With the implementation of the Burma Act (Burma Unification through Rigorous Military Accountability Act) -- legislation passed by the US House of Representatives in April last year aimed at piling pressure on Myanmar's junta government, US humanitarian and non-lethal aid has already become a major disruptor in the ongoing peace process. Myanmar's armed resistance groups asked Washington for half a billion dollars in aid. That is a lot of money. Last year, Washington provided US$136 million for humanitarian and development aid.
With bigger aid packages, non-lethal or otherwise, the increase in the armed conflict will certainly reach a crescendo, which will subsequently turn the civil war into a proxy war. Indeed, the Myanmar crisis today is a hybrid of a civil war as well as a proxy war.
In retrospect, the 5PC was Asean's collective response to the quagmire left in the wake of the Tatmadaw power grab on Feb 1, 2021. The plan was launched 83 days after the coup, while the military junta issued its own five-point roadmap within two weeks of the coup. Now, efforts are being made by Asean and the State Administrative Council (SAC) to synergise the two frameworks and jump-start an unconditional ceasefire and humanitarian assistance.
At the recent Asean annual meeting, the joint communique said clearly that at the upcoming summit, the Joint Coordinating Council will review the 5PC. So far, the chair has already met with representatives from the NUG, EAOs, and other stakeholders. Jakarta has been tight-lipped about the results of their engagements.
However, the outcome of a 90-minute meeting on July 9 between Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai has already produced some progress. Last week, she was transferred to a VIP compound, which is considered a positive development. At the retreat, Mr Don stressed to his Asean colleagues that it was imperative to ensure that the two primary stakeholders -- Ms Suu Kyi and Senior Gen Min Aung Hlaing should settle their differences first and foremost. All impartial efforts must be garnered to help bridge the divide between these two key protagonists. Thailand believes that a workable political solution is possible between them.
That helps explain why Thailand has been engaging Myanmar and keeping channels of communication open at three levels after the February coup. Thailand has held bilateral talks with Myanmar to discuss and manage their common concerns over the porous 2,401-kilometre border, most of which remains non-demarcated. In addition, Bangkok also convened a 1.5-track ("tracks" represent iterations of Multi-track Diplomacy theory) meeting with participation from countries that share common borders with Myanmar and some Asean representatives. The past two meetings, in Bangkok and New Delhi, enabled all participants to build trust and confidence as they exchanged views and attempted to work out common solutions on arms, human trafficking, and narcotics smuggling. Thailand, India, Bangladesh and China have expressed serious concerns over these existential threats. The third meeting is now scheduled to be held sometime in August in Vientiane. Laos will also take up the next year's Asean chair. Indonesia will pass the baton on Sept 7.
Although Thailand is still in political transition, the caretaker government has not lowered its guard concerning its diplomatic policy and approach to Myanmar as the armed resistance inside Myanmar continues to impact border security and the livelihoods of communities straddling the two countries. As of last week, nearly 9,000 fleeing Myanmar citizens crossed over to Mae Hong Son province in the North. They were allowed to stay in five temporary shelters in Mae Sariang and Khun Yuam districts.
As far as the post-election situation is concerned, it is certain that Pheu Thai will lead the formation of the next government with the foreign affairs portfolio under its control. Indeed, the newcomers will wade through the same water, and it is unlikely there will be a major shift in policy, especially on issues related to border security and safety, humanitarian assistance and temporary shelters.
The new government will need to be more assertive in persuading all stakeholders at the negotiating table. Some well-known personalities who helped shape the Myanmar policy of past Pheu Thai governments will be included in the foreign policy team.
Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has yet to appoint a new special envoy to Myanmar. This time around, the UN chief might again consider experienced diplomats from the region, especially Thailand, which has first-hand experience of the region and Myanmar.
The SAC has realised that the internal situation is getting worse as the economy continues to falter. With more outside pressure and increased arms aid, Nay Pyi Taw needs to look for an exit strategy now.
Without quick and constructive moves, trust and confidence will be further eroded. The latest development regarding Ms Suu Kyi's transfer is a good start. The Suu Kyi-Don meeting showed that if all involved work in good faith, an effective and sustainable political solution is possible. To do so, there must be a leap of faith from all sides.