That old medical check-up excuse
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That old medical check-up excuse

Exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is interviewed by Agence France-Presse in Hong Kong on March 25, 2019. AFP
Exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is interviewed by Agence France-Presse in Hong Kong on March 25, 2019. AFP

There are two lingering questions in the minds of many Thais that hopefully will be unravelled this month.

The first query is: When will Thailand get its 30th prime minister? And the second big question is: "Will fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra ever return to Thailand after he just broke his promise to return on Aug 10?"

After over 15 years of living in exile, Thaksin has said he would return to Thailand over 20 times. But somehow, the latest promise gained more credibility as it was told by his youngest daughter Paetongtarn, one of the Pheu Thai Party's candidates for prime minister.

For the first question, there are still many uncertainties over how successful the Pheu Thai Party will be in lobbying for the support of senators and MPs to garner the minimum 375 votes required for its primary candidate, former real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin, to be approved.

First of all, the Pheu Thai Party must decide which parties it will invite to join its coalition to form a government. Prospective parties include Bhumjaithai, Charthaipattana, Chart Pattana Kla and the Democrats, but the Move Forward Party (MFP) will be excluded.

At this stage, Pheu Thai has reservations about forming a government with the Palang Pracharath (PPRP) and United Thai Nation Parties, as per its promise not to work with parties considered remnants of the military junta.

Without these two parties, a Pheu Thai-led government will only have a thin majority in the House, meaning the coalition will have a harder time in passing laws, unlike the disbanded eight-party coalition with the MFP, which commanded a comfortable majority with 312 votes.

Still, the Pheu Thai Party needs support from senators in the selection of a prime minister in parliament.

But will most senators give their vote without demanding anything in return, now that Pheu Thai has dumped the MFP and made it clear it won't touch the lese majeste law?

It is clear that PPRP leader Prawit Wongsuwon still wields influence over several senators. Although he does not openly admit it, it is an open secret that he yearns for the top executive post at least once in his lifetime after playing second fiddle to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha for eight years.

And because of his frail health, this will be his last chance.

Mr Srettha's path to the prime minister post may not be smooth, particularly in the wake of talks of a secret deal between Pheu Thai and the MFP, which may cause hesitation among the senators that Pheu Thai wants to court. Despite the fallout between the parties, pundits from the conservative camp warn that Pheu Thai may bring the MFP in to give its coalition majority support.

If the Constitutional Court rejects the Ombudsman's petition on Aug 16, parliament can proceed with selecting a prime minister as planned. Then, we will see whether Mr Srettha will be elected or not. Under the parliament meeting regulation no 41, a party can only nominate a PM candidate once.

If the court issues an injunction to suspend the prime minister's selection process, it is likely that House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha will follow and suspend the process until there is a new ruling from the court. This means more political uncertainties and more political manoeuvring.

For the second question, about Thaksin's return, it should be made clear again that, as a Thai citizen, he can return any time he wishes and no one can stop him. The only concern stopping him from returning is his 10-year jail term for three convictions that he will have to serve upon setting foot on Thai soil.

For a man like Thaksin, who has been living a comfortable and luxurious life abroad for 15 years, with swanky mansions and a private jet, returning home only to be locked up in prison without knowing whether he will be royally pardoned is daunting.

He explained that he "would like to come back home to pick up his nieces and nephews at school like a grandpa" defies any common sense; under Thai law, he is supposed to serve a third of his 10-year jail term before he can seek a royal pardon.

Unless a special deal is worked out before his return, Thaksin's return is tantamount to sailing back to Thailand and putting his head on the chopping board. With his massive fortune, isn't it easier and more sensible for him to take his nephews and nieces to study at posh schools overseas?

Without a government with a Pheu Thai prime minister in place, it will be too risky for him to return. Hence, the sudden postponement of his return for at least two weeks.

The court decided on Aug 3 to postpone making a decision on the Ombudsman's petition to Aug 16, resulting in an indefinite postponement of the parliamentary session for selecting a prime minister, originally scheduled for Aug 4.

Many have lost count of how many times Thaksin has talked about returning, only to change his mind after.

The political situation still remains fluid and fraught, with uncertainties beyond the control of Thaksin, the Pheu Thai Party or individual senators. Someone behind the scenes still calls the shots. The problem is that his political aspiration has not yet been fulfilled.

Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.

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