A storm of hardship seems to be brewing for farmers and consumers. With the Russia-Ukraine war already disrupting global food security and prices, El Niño is threatening to provide an extra headache for those closer to home.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon (though climate change is said to increase its intensity) that warms the water surface in the Pacific Ocean and disrupts typical weather patterns that bring monsoon rains to Thailand.
The result? Less rainfall and drought that disrupts the normal agricultural cycle, especially since rice cultivation will commence next month.
Late last month, secretary-general and deputy director of the Office of the National Water Resources (ONWR) Surasri Kidtimonton warned that El Niño will lead to "rainfall that is about 40% less than normal, which poses a high risk for water shortages".
As a result, the ONWR has recommended farmers plant crops that use less water and can be harvested quickly, such as millets, which need 650-1,200 litres of water for the same amount of harvest that would require 2,500 litres for rice.
And El Niño isn't a problem that can be wished away, either. Mr Surasri added: "What's worrying is the El Niño phenomenon may extend right through to 2025. We have to plan nationwide water management prudently." So the writing on the wall is clear, it's time to take immediate action to ensure sustainable water use.
The provinces hardest hit by El Niño are those in the Central Plains region, which is effectively the country's rice belt. The situation is already bleak in these areas with low water levels in reservoirs in four dams -- Bhumibol in Tak, Sirikit in Uttaradit, Kwae Noi Bamrung Dan in Phitsanulok and Pasak Jolasid in Lop Buri -- currently at 39% of capacity.
As a result of El Niño's disruption, the Thai Rice Exporters Association has estimated a reduction in the country's rice output by 1-2 million tonnes from the normal range of 20 tonnes of milled rice per year.
So one impact will be a hit on the country's economy. But what's worse is how this will affect people's livelihoods; many are already struggling to adjust to the rising cost of living.
Thailand is the world's second-largest rice exporter behind India, which recently banned all exports of non-basmati rice. This move has put pressure on other leading rice exporters in the form of higher demand.
But rice is also a staple of Thai cuisine and with increased demand and less supply, prices for domestic consumers will certainly rise. In fact, Thai rice prices have already spiked.
In a monthly update last week, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) under the UN said that over the span of two weeks, Thailand's rice prices saw the sharpest rise with quotations of Thai 100% B white rice increasing by US$38 (1,300 baht) to $562 per tonne.
Restaurant owners are feeling the pinch of higher prices as well and it's only a matter of time until they pass it on to the consumer, unless the government steps in to control rice prices.
In the meantime, action is needed to improve water resource management strategies. It's time to move away from focusing on only supply-side management where there is an emphasis on constructing dams and water distribution systems, since El Niño has shown that rain is not always guaranteed.
There should also be a focus on demand-side management and holistic approaches to water conservation that leads to the efficient use of water. Some demand-side management projects have been introduced, such as a small-scale hydroelectricity project that can better regulate the water supply and a groundwater pricing system in some areas that charges users on volume of water used.
Furthermore, investments in research and technology should be made to gain insights into adaptive strategies that can respond to evolving climate patterns. Cutting-edge innovations, such as precision agriculture and water-saving irrigation systems, can reduce water consumption while maintaining agricultural productivity.
Also, by providing incentives to industries to adopt water-efficient practices and promoting sustainable agricultural methods, the damaging effects of El Niño can be mitigated if not avoided altogether. Hopefully the next government will embrace a forward-looking approach that leads to sustainable practices to counter El Niño disruptions and ensure a water-secure future for a healthy economy and populace.