Significant developments are poised to unfold in politics this week, casting a spotlight on the 250-appointed senators and their pivotal role in determining the nation's trajectory. Their choices will either propel the country forward or set it back for more than half a decade.
The Constitutional Court is set to rule on Wednesday on the legality of parliament's rejection of Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat's renomination. This ruling holds the power to reshape the prime minister selection process.
The Pheu Thai Party has endorsed Srettha Thavisin, former CEO of a prominent real estate company, as its candidate for the position, contingent upon the outcome of this ruling. Even if the court dismisses the petition, uncertainties linger regarding Mr Srettha's ability to win the 375 votes needed to ascend to the role of Thailand's 30th prime minister.
Some believe senators may withhold their votes from Pheu Thai's candidates, leaning towards the "conservative" camp as it attempts to secure the premiership. Anutin Charnvirakul, leader and PM candidate of the Bhumjaithai Party, or Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, leader and PM of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), are potential beneficiaries of this inclination.
Pheu Thai is counting on backing from the MFP, aiming to secure its 151 votes in favour of Mr Srettha, to reduce its dependence on the Senate in getting the required number of votes. However, complications have arisen as key figures within MFP oppose this overture, stemming from Pheu Thai's recent decision to sever ties with MFP in their prospective coalition government. Without MFP's support, senators hold the decisive role of determining whether Mr Srettha can amass sufficient parliamentary votes to claim the prime ministership.
Should senators opt to reject him and other Pheu Thai's candidates, following their previous rejection of the MFP -- the party which won most votes in the election -- the political sphere risks regressing into a detrimental cycle experienced for half a decade.
Thailand's political history is marred by instances where parties which won elections have faltered in securing prime ministers, often due to the influence of undemocratic forces. The cycle began 66 years ago when the Sahaphum Party, led by Sukit Nimmanhemin, secured 44 MP seats after winning the election. Despite its substantial vote tally, external interference, notably from military authorities, led to Lt Gen Thanom Kittikachorn assuming the prime ministerial role.
Fast-forwarding to the present, Pheu Thai is anticipated to win over 300 votes through political alliances, including from conservative factions such as the PRRP, United Nation Party, and Bhumjaithai Party. However, the party's quest for the premiership also necessitates support from senators.
Failure to win enough votes there would shift its premiership prospects to the third-winning party, Bhumjaithai, with Mr Anutin as the prime ministerial candidate, or even the fourth-winning party, the PPRP, with Gen Prawit as the candidate.
Although Pheu Thai has faced allegations of betraying the "progressive" camp by including "conservative" parties in its prospective coalition, the possibility of conservative parties, which governed the country for nine years but failed to win the election, assuming the premiership should be averted. That would retard democratic progress by over half a decade. Senators must take responsibility for their decisions and anticipate any unforeseen ramifications that may follow.