A survey of opinion in Cambodia published by Gallup in August shows the impossibility of trying to gauge the views of the public under a dictatorship determined to stamp out any trace of dissent.
The survey finds high levels of confidence in Cambodia's military and financial institutions, both scoring 82%. "In many ways," Gallup concludes, "the Cambodia that Hun Manet is inheriting is a stable one, with widespread confidence in institutions and satisfaction with key services."
Hun Manet took over as prime minister from his father Hun Sen in August. Gallup does not present the findings as being an opinion poll. It has no choice, as opinion polls are banned in Cambodia. Gallup does not have the right to ask questions concerning approval of leadership, or the government, or confidence in the judicial system. There is no way in the survey for respondents to express criticism of the government, or support for the opposition.
Private polls carried out by the government showing the real prospect of the defeat of the ruling Cambodian People's Party by the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) in the 2018 national elections were a key reason for the dissolution of the CNRP by the country's politically controlled supreme court in 2017. The national election of July 2023, like that of 2018, took place with no recognised opposition party being allowed to run.
Cambodia has more than 60 political prisoners who are in jail but have done nothing beyond criticising the government, a fact which Gallup neglects to mention despite its obvious connection with the reliability of the opinions expressed. The danger is that Gallup, as an internationally respected polling organisation, is creating credibility for a violent dictatorship by allowing its name to be used.
Glimpses of reality appear in the survey results. The proportion of Cambodians who say they have health problems sufficient to reduce their normal activities, at 29%, is higher than for any other Southeast Asian country, including Myanmar. Hun Sen never created a system of national healthcare during his decades in power, and the country's elite have long preferred to travel abroad for their health needs.
Among the poorest 20% of Cambodians, inability to afford food reached a record high of 87% in 2022. Gallup says there is no other country in the world which has greater inequality between rich and poor in terms of ability to pay for food. The reported "satisfaction with key services" identified among people who are terrified of legal or extra-judicial reprisals if they are identified as having criticised the government should be seen in this light, but Gallup does not draw the obvious inferences from its data.
There is a solution to Gallup's dilemma. The only Cambodians who are even partially free to express their opinion are those who live outside the country. By far the largest concentration of Cambodians living abroad is in Thailand, with about 2 million people having crossed the border in search of work. This group is representative of Cambodian opinion, sharing the conditions of poverty of those back home, while frequently moving back and forth across the porous border between the countries.
Many Cambodians in Thailand are working to try and service microcredit loans taken out by their families back at home. Some lenders require a family to have a member working in Thailand as they know there is no way a loan can be repaid otherwise.
Cambodia has one of the highest levels of microfinance debt relative to incomes in the world. The ombudsman at the World Bank's International Finance Corporation is currently investigating lending practices among Cambodia's largest lenders. Research from the human rights group Licadho has found that forced land sales and child labour are associated with excessive Cambodian microfinance loans.
Microfinance does not feature in the Gallup survey, but responses from Cambodians working in Thailand as to their confidence in microfinance lenders and their ability to repay their loans would be valuable and actionable data for foreign investors in the industry.
Thailand is by no means a safe sanctuary for Cambodians. The Thai government routinely has Cambodian dissidents arrested and sent back to face their fate, and opposition supporters such as Phorn Phanna have been beaten up by Khmer-speaking men hired by the Cambodian government to keep dissident voices quiet.
Despite this prejudicial environment, a genuine opinion poll among the Khmer community in Thailand, whether carried out by Gallup or another recognised polling company, is a realistic project, which would shine the most accurate light currently possible on the opinions of ordinary Cambodians.
Sam Rainsy is co-founder and acting leader of the Cambodia National Rescue Party.