The fall of Laukkai in Myanmar's Kokang Self-Administered Zone to rebel forces is one of the most significant developments in the conflict in Myanmar since the coup took place in 2021. Why? It shows the State Administration Council's (SAC) inability to protect its territory from the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which launched a fierce offensive dubbed "Operation 1027" at the end of October last year, threatening the junta's hold on the northern Shan state, which borders China, and other remote areas in the region.
The alliance's latest territorial gain will undoubtedly have an impact on the attempt to promote an inclusive, Myanmar-led solution to the crises, as outlined by the Asean Five-Point Peace Process (5PC). Any hopes for a dialogue between all stakeholders will be dashed if any side insists on a triumph on the battlefield. At the same time, if the SAC fails to retake the ground it lost to rebel forces, the long-awaited election will surely be postponed.
This in turn, will have an impact on the overall region. The ongoing conflict has pushed thousands across the border into Laos, with which Myanmar shares a 238-kilometre frontier, and Thailand.
Laos, as the current chair of Asean, will host a retreat for the region's foreign ministers in Luang Prabang later this month to discuss its plans for Asean this year. On top of its agenda is resolving the deteriorating situation in Myanmar, and to do so, the bloc will need to recalibrate its plan to implement the 5PC.
Currently, the bloc's efforts have been focused on providing humanitarian assistance to affected citizens who were displaced within the country and along the long border Myanmar shares with India, China, Bangladesh, and Thailand. Although there is no official number of displaced individuals since the conflict began, several estimates put it as as high as over 1.5 million.
Over the past four months, security issues have been put on the back burner. However, now that the lower House has given its first nod to the 2024 Budget Bill, the Srettha Thavisin administration can start to focus on national security issues and other pressing matters, including the crisis in Myanmar.
The appointment of Pol Gen Roy Inkhapairoj as the new secretary-general of the National Security Council (NSC), also came at the right time, as the country is mapping out a comprehensive strategic plan to respond to the Myanmar quagmire. Pol Gen Roy has no time to lose, as he, too, will reach retirement age later in the year. Therefore, he must come up with a strategy that is meaningful as the situation in Myanmar continues to deteriorate.
In the worst-case scenario, the SAC and its government apparatus will collapse. Both analysts and pundits have said that the junta's downfall is imminent, but truth be told, Myanmar is still a long way away from being considered a failed state.
While the SAC has lost some ground in recent weeks, Nay Pyi Taw still has around 300,000 troops fighting against about 65,000 resistance fighters, many of whom are new recruits. Given the advantage, the SAC could still retake the territories it has lost.
The previous Asean chair deployed what it called the "quiet diplomacy" tactic, maintaining communication with all stakeholders in the crisis, including the National Unity Government (NUG), the junta's archenemy.
There is a growing recognition that this process should continue. The so-called "Track 1.5" dialogues initiated by Thailand should also continue, as it allows for informal engagement with various groups.
Under the Srettha government, Thailand must be more proactive in engaging with all stakeholders in the Myanmar conflict. Bangkok must also consult countries that share a border with Myanmar, including China and India. However, the government must remember to adhere to the bloc's cardinal principle of non-interference.
As far as Asean's reaction is concerned, Laos has acted quickly by appointing veteran diplomat, Alounkeo Kittikoun as the chair's special Asean envoy to Myanmar on Dec 22. As a former UN envoy and former minister of the PM's office, Mr Alounkeo will play an active role, as stipulated in the 5PC, to facilitate the peace process. The new chair has made clear it will build upon the achievements made by preceding chairs, namely Brunei, Cambodia, and Indonesia, on the 5PC.
Over the past three years, the situation in Myanmar has hampered the implementation of the 5PC. The so-called five-point consensus called for the immediate cessation of violence in Myanmar, constructive dialogue among all parties concerned to seek a peaceful solution in the interests of the people, mediation to be facilitated by an envoy of Asean's chair, with the assistance of the secretary-general; provision of humanitarian assistance through Asean's AHA Centre and a visit by the special envoy and delegation to Myanmar to meet all parties concerned.
Limited progress has been achieved on points 3,4 and 5. But the Asean Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre) and Myanmar's Red Cross Society began working together to provide humanitarian assistance last year, so this year, we can expect to see more progress within Myanmar.
Under the Lao chairmanship, we can expect to see more focus on enhancing connectivity and resilience within the region. Only by crafting a holistic approach which takes into account Asean's three central pillars, namely political/security, economic and socio-cultural, will it be able to reach its goals.
Apart from intra-Asean matters, at the first informal foreign ministerial meeting in Luang Prabang later this month, on the top of the agenda would be the crisis in Myanmar and the way forward.
Last month, Laos' Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith outlined nine priorities that would increase the relevancy of Asean and its ability to face future challenges.
Laos will follow the lead set by past Asean chairs; but it will add more emphasis on economic aspects in an effort to boost the bloc's post-pandemic recovery and promote the further integration of the 670-million-plus individuals living within the Asean Community. Laos is aiming to transform itself into a hub for transport and supply chains. Unsurprising, perhaps, Laos is the first country in mainland Southeast Asia to have a high-speed train line, which has now become a highly visible symbol of the country's vision for the future.
With Asean members' support, Laos will be able to carry out its chairmanship with integrity and with the bloc's interest at heart. Note that it would be Mr Saleuxay's second time as the chair. He experienced a baptism by fire during his first term in 2016, as he had just been appointed foreign minister.
It serves as a reminder that Asean convening and convincing power does not depend on the rotational chair's geographical and population size. It depends on the Asean Way guided by the chair.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a veteran journalist on regional affairs.