During a New Year briefing, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Sơn told the media that the diplomatic sector will continue to focus on strongly developing the identity of Vietnamese "bamboo diplomacy" in 2024.
He further said that despite global headwinds with unprecedented and daunting challenges, Vietnam's foreign policy, adhering to the "bamboo diplomacy" concept, has carved out various achievements in recent months.
Apparently, Vietnam is making a big splash on the global political stage. The culmination of last year's events saw Vietnam strategically host US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping within a short interval, symbolising the delicate balance in the Southeast Asian nation's foreign relations.
Positioned between two major powers vying for influence, Vietnam's nuanced approach underscores its adept navigation of geopolitical complexities.
As global dynamics evolve, Vietnam's role as a diplomatic fulcrum exemplifies the artistry of its "bamboo" strategy, enabling harmonious engagement with competing superpowers. While this "bamboo diplomacy" has proven highly effective so far, the lingering uncertainty revolves around the extent to which this strategy will continue to produce favourable outcomes in the days ahead.
At the recent 32nd National Diplomatic Conference in Hanoi, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong highlighted the intrinsic connection between Vietnam's diplomatic tradition and the symbolism of Vietnamese bamboo. Describing this tradition as having "firm roots" and "flexible branches", Mr Trong emphasised the adaptive and flexible nature of Vietnamese diplomacy.
Rooted in the core principles of being "firm in objectives, flexible in strategies and tactics", Vietnam's diplomatic strategy mirrors the resilience and versatility of bamboo. Such a flexible yet firm statecraft underscores Vietnam's ability to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape with steadfast objectives while employing adaptable strategies and tactics.
The concept of "bamboo diplomacy" was coined by General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong in 2016 and has become a defining strategy for Vietnam's statecraft since.
Mr Trong, in his second term leading Vietnam's Communist Party, introduced this diplomatic approach to address the challenges of an evolving geopolitical landscape. Since 2021, Vietnam has actively implemented this policy, showcasing a nuanced balancing act.
A glaring example is its stance on the South China Sea, where Vietnam has been in direct conflict with China. While expressing shared concerns with the US regarding Beijing's assertiveness in the South China Sea, Vietnam maintains substantial economic ties with China. Notably, last year, Vietnam's diplomatic finesse was evident in its unprecedented double upgrade of relations with the US in September, followed by a commitment to forge a "shared future" with China in December. This strategic manoeuvring reflects Vietnam's adept use of bamboo diplomacy to secure its interests amidst complex global dynamics.
In an era marked by intense great power competition and an uncertain global future, Vietnam stands out as a notable success story in skillfully navigating the delicate balance between rival powers. The intricate dance between major players on the world stage demands extreme diplomatic finesse, and Vietnam has adeptly achieved this delicate equilibrium.
Vietnam strategically embraced the concept of a "community of shared future" with China, a move calculated to avoid upsetting Beijing. This diplomatic manoeuvre not only preserved crucial relations with China but, at the same time, Vietnam cautiously navigated the delicate dance of upgrading relations with the US and Japan, well aware of potential repercussions from a watchful China.
The US had persistently advocated for this elevation, pressuring Vietnam to choose a strategic timing to avoid provoking Beijing. The timing was crucial to avert Chinese displeasure. During Mr Xi's visit, Hanoi and Beijing inked 36 cooperation agreements spanning infrastructure, trade, and security, underscoring the complex diplomatic landscape where nuanced decisions are vital to maintaining a delicate equilibrium. Vietnam has been skillfully manoeuvring its balancing act, leveraging trade as a pivotal component of its strategy. Despite a historical rivalry, the US now stands as Vietnam's primary export destination, while China remains a crucial partner for imports. With this newfound diplomatic equilibrium, Vietnam, strategically positioned in global supply chains, anticipates a substantial influx of foreign capital.
In an era marked by a widening divide between the West and the China-Russia alliance, Vietnam's reliance on "bamboo diplomacy" also faces challenges. The emerging Cold War 2 dynamics make bamboo diplomacy harder to implement and appear insufficient to navigate the complexities of this evolving geopolitical landscape.
As the conflict in Ukraine reshapes global strategies, Vietnam's bid to maintain neutrality amid superpower rivalries is becoming more complex. The prospect of political shifts in the US, from a Biden administration to a potential return of Donald Trump, adds an element of uncertainty for Vietnam. Congressional displeasure or specific issues could strain Vietnam-US relations, prompting Hanoi to carefully navigate potential obstacles. Against the backdrop of the South China Sea dispute, Vietnam aims to avoid taking sides, maintaining a delicate balance.
Apparently, this stance has a short shelf-life, and it will lose its relevance soon. The existing fabric of global politics is marked by complexity and unpredictability, pointing towards the inevitability of strategic competition among major nations.
The imperative for Vietnam lies in adapting to these intricate geopolitical dynamics while safeguarding its national interests. In light of heightened competition between the US and China, Vietnam faces a formidable task, prompting the need for a fresh and adaptable safety net in this era of geopolitical flux.
In this multipolar landscape, developing countries face heightened risks, compelling Vietnam and its Southeast Asian counterparts to tread cautiously amid evolving global and regional dynamics.
Imran Khalid is a freelance contributor on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan.