All credible sources indicate that since Operation 1027 was launched at the end of October, the State Administration Council (SAC) has lost approximately 469 military bases in various parts of Myanmar.
Intense fighting over the past 11 weeks has been concentrated in five major border areas, namely northern Shan State, Chin State, the Sagaing Region, Kayah State, and Kachin State. The resistance forces have so far captured at least 30 townships and districts.
Operation 1027 is an ongoing joint military operation conducted by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a military coalition composed of three ethnic armed organisations.
No fewer than 16 of these bases were in northern Shan State and were seized by the alliance comprising the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).
Fifteen other occupied areas have been taken by other resistance groups, including the United Wa State Army, the Kachin Independence Army, the Chin National Front, the Palaung State Liberation Front, All Burma Students' Democratic Front, People's Defence Forces and various militia groups.
For the SAC, the present situation does not augur well, as fighting continues to intensify amid growing pressure from Myanmar's people on the regime's brutality and dysfunctional economy.
This has prompted one important question: Will the Tatmadaw continue to wage war against the resistance fighters through air raids and rocket attacks?
These attacks have so far caused thousands of civilian deaths and displaced nearly two million others inside Myanmar.
But it does not mean the Tatmadaw will collapse anytime soon. Within Asean, however, policymakers and experts have drawn up scenarios regarding the Myanmar crisis, and none of them predicts the regime's total collapse.
Akin to Thailand's, their latest assessment remains the same -- the SAC will remain despite its weakening forces and recent territorial losses. A safe exit strategy would be to end its current isolationist policies and open dialogue with other stakeholders, including Western countries.
Under these circumstances, it will be sooner rather than later finding out what the SAC's next step will be as its sixth emergency rule extension will expire at the end of this month. Nay Pyi Taw has insisted that it will hold a general election this year. With another extension of emergency rule, the election could be further delayed should the current crisis prevail.
The SAC has enacted a new political party registration law and called for both existing and new political parties to register. Only 13 new parties came forward, and another 50 already existed. A total of 40 parties, including the National League of Democracy (NLD), were dissolved as they failed to meet the deadline. Nonetheless, according to Section 3 of the parties registration law, the Union Election Commission remains open for applications from new political parties. If the SAC wants the election to go ahead, ways must be found to ensure the defunct NLD can take part. The party won the 2020 election but was ousted when the military seized power on Feb 1, 2021.
This weekend, the Lao-PDR Asean chair is holding a foreign ministerial retreat, the first of a series of meetings, in the former Lao capital, Luang Prabang, to discuss the bloc's agenda on political/security, economic, and social/cultural issues.
One top issue discussed will be the Myanmar crisis. Asean leaders will review and update the implementation of the Five-point Consensus (5PC). For the past three years, the bloc's peace plan has been under fire for its sluggish progress. However, over the past few weeks, there have been some positive developments in planned humanitarian assistance for displaced people in Myanmar and along the Thai-Myanmar border.
At the very least, the long-awaited needs assessment for humanitarian assistance proposed by the Asean Secretariat in February last year has been completed through the collaboration of the Asean Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Management (AHA) and Myanmar's Task Force. The next move will be the prepositioning and distribution of humanitarian aid related to non-food items, in particular medicine and life-saving devices. Last year, these two organisations worked together to distribute non-food items to 1,500 displaced people in Si Sai township in southern Shan State under the control of ethnic armed groups.
The issue of humanitarian assistance was also raised during the visit to Nay Pyi Taw last week by Alounkeo Kittikhoun, Asean's newly appointed special envoy to Myanmar.
The veteran diplomat was able to gain early access to top SAC leaders as well as other politicians and stakeholders to discuss the future implementation of the 5PC.
This spoke volumes about the level of trust the military regime has for Alounkeo. He will report the outcome of his visit to Asean leaders for their further deliberation on the bloc's next actions. Vientiane will also build on the progress that has been made during the past three chairmanships.
In a related development, the joint Thailand-Myanmar task force, which was established in early December, has made fast progress in pushing for humanitarian assistance corridors.
This week in Bangkok, the task force will meet and discuss the details of bilateral plans. Foreign Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-nukara said that the Red Cross Societies of both countries will be involved in the distribution with the AHA centre as the monitoring mechanism.
In the first phase, this project will be conducted in two locations along the Thai-Myanmar border, which have yet to be determined. At present, displaced people are widely spread along the common border adjacent to Kanchanaburi, Mae Hong Son, Tak and Ranong provinces. The chosen distribution areas would be considered safe zones agreed upon by the SAC and accessible by monitoring officials. Mr Parnpree reiterated that the distribution of aid must reach all needy displaced people without prejudice and be undertaken in credible and transparent ways.
The Thai initiative will also be discussed at the retreat. If the bilateral arrangement goes ahead as planned, it will complement the Asean assistance plans.
In Davos last week, Mr Parnpree urged Asean to take a more active role in tackling Myanmar, especially the humanitarian crisis. In addition, it could provide further impetus for additional distribution locations and the broader engagement of external partners, such as specialised UN agencies in the process.
At the moment, only one foreign organisation, the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation, has been allowed to distribute humanitarian aid inside Myanmar. Earlier, the SAC was adamant that the distribution of aid must go through its designated international airport and seaport.
It remains to be seen how Nay Pyi Taw will proceed with the 5PC, especially during the Lao chairmanship. Judging from the new Asean envoy's handling of last week's meeting with the SAC, there could be further progress on the bloc's peace plan.
Nay Pyi Taw keeps saying that its 5-point roadmap complements the Asean 5PC. Now, it is time to demonstrate this, in particular on Item 4 regarding humanitarian aid.
At the annual Asean ministerial meeting in Jakarta last May, the SAC submitted a 5-page report to the Asean chair outlining what had been achieved and done under the 5PC. But the report was not given full attention due to Myanmar's recalcitrance and continued violation of human rights against its citizens. The chair was more focused on reaching out to all concerned stakeholders.
Interestingly, the report also included 5,698 casualties supposedly caused by resistance forces in Sagaing, Mandalay, Yangon and Magway Region. They supposedly included civilians, children, monks, nuns, administrative and government staffers, teachers, health workers, doctors and nurses. In contrast, over the same period, the number of killings committed by the Tatmadaw was higher at more than 6,000, according to various tallies by Western rights organizations. Since February 2021, the SAC has released a total of 72,570 imprisoned people, including the latest group of 9,652 freed early this month.
A new Asean chair and the current situation in Myanmar can provide the window to proceed with long-awaited humanitarian plans and open an inclusive dialogue. The so-called track 1.5, which the previous Thai government began early last year, remains relevant as it has helped to broaden dialogue and confidence-building measures with the military regime and other stakeholders.
It is hoped under the Lao chairmanship, without jeopardising the 5PC process, additional stakeholders can be invited to future meetings at different venues within Asean.