The opposition Move Forward party is doomed after the Constitutional Court last week ruled the party's campaign to amend Section 112 shows it is attempting to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.
The prospect that the party will escape the penalty of being dissolved and its executive committee banned from contesting elections for 10 years by the Constitutional Court appears slim.
Worse, the party's 44 MPs who signed up to approve the party's bill to amend the lese majeste law may be banned from politics for life. They include the likes of Pannikar Wanich, a former MP of the now-defunct Future Forward Party.
On Feb 1, a day after the charter court's ruling, political opportunist Ruangkrai Leekitwattana, a member of the Palang Pracharath Party, submitted a petition to the Election Commission asking it to dissolve Move Forward Party and impose a political ban on its executive committee. The EEC must lodge the case via the court.
Meanwhile, Thirayut Suwankhesorn, the man who petitioned the court to order the Move Forward Party to cease all campaign activities related to the lese majeste law, also submitted a petition to the National Anti-Corruption Commission to probe the conduct of the 44 Move Forward MPs for alleged violation of ethical standards over their approval of the bill to amend Article 112, which is pending in the House.
If the NACC finds there is sufficient ground to the charge, it will forward the case to the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders to seek their political banishment, probably for life. Also among the 44 MPs who signed are Pita Limjaroenrat, the former party leader, and Chaithawat Tulathon, the current party leader.
Nonetheless, it cannot be assumed that all 44 MPs harbour the ill intention to undermine the revered institution or overthrow the constitutional monarchy simply by signing up to the bill because MPs' main job in parliament is to write bills to be deliberated.
Hence, the NACC should not lump them all together to demand a political ban as requested by the petitioner.
It appears "the forces" behind these two petitioners want to ban MFP and its key members via legal mechanisms, executed by charter-mandated independent organisations such as the Constitutional Court, EC and NACC, in the hope to getting rid of progressive parties, such as the Move Forward Party and its predecessor, Future Forward, which are seen as threats to the conservative elite.
There is no question the MFP poses a real threat to all the major parties, among them Pheu Thai, the Democrats, Bumjaithai, Palang Pracharath and United Thai Nation, given its rising popularity among younger Thais.
A life ban seems to be the ultimate objective, and underlines the true nature of perceived democracy in Thailand.
The Constitutional Court's ruling on Jan 31 raises concerns which require an explanation from the court, particularly where it says that amending the lese majeste law can be done only through legislative channels.
Does the court mean that, from now on the lese majeste law is taboo, and cannot be discussed in public or outside the realm of parliament even if it is an academic discussion couched in a positive or constructive manner?
The Move Forward Party appears prepared for the worst case scenario if its executive committee and 44 MPs are banished from politics by the court. The party has learned its painful lesson from the dissolution of the Future Forward Party and political ban of its executives.
A new set of prospective young leaders and a new party have been kept in reserve to fill the void in case the axe falls. Yet the impacts of such a move still will be devasting, not only for the party and its members, but also for their supporters.
How this political game wraps up remains to be seen. But the desire for societal change which lies behind Move Forward's support will not be extinguished so easily. It cannot be stopped by excessively harsh punishments meted out by the courts.
Veera Prateepchaikul is former editor, Bangkok Post.