The US presidential primaries form a lengthy contest to determine the presidential candidates for the Democratic and Republican parties. The events stretch a full six months from Jan 3 in Iowa to June 26 in Utah. Though the news media will do their best to portray the primaries as a multi-faceted horse race worthy of close attention, the results are almost certain.
President Barrack Obama will stand for the Democrats. Former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, will stand for the Republicans.
Moreover, I'd advise that you not pay too much attention to the campaign rhetoric. Words uttered in the primaries tend to have only a modest impact on the policies of the eventual winner.
Now, just a few details.
The primaries are numerous and complex. They are organised separately in each of the 50 states by the local branch of the national parties. Some 20 parties appear on the ballots in multiple states, but the only two who will really matter are the Republicans and the Democrats.
The primaries select delegates to the respective national conventions (the Republicans on Aug 27, the Democrats on Sept 3.) In effect, that gives us 100 different contests according to 100 different sets of rules.
Confusing? Only two of the major candidates were able to figure out how to qualify for the Republican ballot for the important Virginia primary. (They needed a petition signed by 10,000, including 400 voters from each of Virginia's 11 districts.)
In truth, the primaries aren't very representative of the American public and their views. Typically, less than 20% of voters participate (only 6.5% showed up at last week's widely reported Iowa caucuses) and those tend to be the most avid supporters of each party: the more conservative of the Republicans and the more liberal of the Democrats.
Thus, Republican candidates spend their primary campaigns trying to appeal to the most conservative of their brethren.
In the presidential election come November, they traditionally broaden their message to appeal to independent voters. The same would apply to the Democrats, except that as a sitting president, Mr Obama can afford to focus now on the general election, and of course on running the country.
Thus, don't pay much attention to the noise emanating from the Republican primaries. (Similar fluff would be coming from Democratic circles if their primaries were being contested.) Though most of the campaign is focused on domestic issues and on the economy, Republicans have been talking tough on China and trade issues. The concerns are real, but most of the talk is for show to a domestic audience.
Take Newt Gingrich who declared that "The Palestinians are an invented people". That is about as historically accurate as it is outrageously irresponsible. But it goes down well with the fervent supporters of Israel whom Republican candidates hope to woo.
Where will this all take us?
The papers will tease readers with sports analogies, "Santorum has momentum coming out of Iowa". "Ron Paul set to continue strong in NH".
Don't pay attention. Not a single independent analyst gives either of them a significant chance to succeed at the convention, though they could influence the national conversation along the way.
Polls are not very reliable this far in advance. Perhaps the best read is given by Intrade, an online pool which allows people to bet US$5 or so on a specific outcome. The current Intrade betting is 80% for Mr Romney to get the Republican nomination, versus 5% or less for his rivals.
There may be some drama along the way. Thus far, the Republican primaries have been characterised by the conservative Republican base's unease with Mr Romney's conservative credentials (in truth he has few).
Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich and now Rick Santorum have each enjoyed brief spurts of popularity as the "not Romney" in the race.
Perhaps Jon Huntsman will have a similar spurt starting in today's closely watched New Hampshire primary (disclosure: I vote in New Hampshire).
But the overwhelming odds are that the Republicans will gradually, by April or so, realise that their most important goal is to select a "not-Obama" and the strongest candidate for that role is Mr Romney.
What will be the outcome of the Romney-Obama contest and what will be its import for Thailand? Those are subjects for a future column.
(Intrade currently tips Mr Obama at 51%).
Robert W Fitts is Director of the American Studies Programme, Institute of Security and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University.