Power games in the region
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Power games in the region

Competing forces are at work over the enormous and dangerous problems in the South China Sea.

On a positive note, Asean, after years of effort, has developed a code of conduct for the region.

Their idea is to avoid "incidents" between or among the military forces of the many countries in conflict. But others are less optimistic.

The Philippines has requested the presence of more US forces. China's new leadership has ordered yet more military strength because of territorial disputes.

The Asean plan has much merit. Whether the bloc's 10 member nations can convince China of that fact is another question entirely. All 10 Asean foreign ministers finally agreed on the code of conduct, which they will refer to as a COC. It was signed off last week in an informal get-together in Hua Hin, where Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa said: "We are all set to go to Beijing." That step begins on Aug 28, at official ceremonies hosted by China to mark 10 years of partnership with Asean.

China has been opposed from the start to even working with Asean over its South China Sea problems. Half of the Asean members _ Indonesia, Brunei, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines _ claim some of the huge territory, as well as Taiwan, which claims the same legacy rights as Beijing. But China has until now rejected all approaches from Asean or other groups. The Chinese insist all disagreements must be discussed _ or contested, in some violent cases _ on a bilateral basis.

That obviously works in favour of bigger and brawnier Beijing. And that is the reason the Philippines, and to a lesser extent Vietnam, are openly requesting a larger and more public show of force by the United States. Eric John, the former US ambassador to Thailand, led a delegation to Manila last week. The two sides will almost certainly negotiate a deal under which more US forces spend more time in and around the Philippines and its disputed waters.

The word "China" has not been uttered in the talks. But President Benigno Aquino's office said a bigger US presence would help to build the Philippine military's capabilities. The only external threats to the Philippines are from China, Taiwan and Asean neighbours, in the Spratly Islands group. Manila hopes to sign a deal before the end of the year. There will be no US bases, as there once were, but an increased US presence will get China's attention.

Or it already has. Just as Asean ministers prepared to sign the COC deal in Hua Hin, Chinese President Xi Jinping called on the country to strengthen maritime forces. "In no way," said Mr Xi, "will the country abandon its legitimate rights and interests."

China faces other territorial disputes outside our region, most notably with Japan. It also is clearly disturbed that India, with a formidable maritime force, has clearly leaned towards Asean in the Spratly and other disputes in the South China Sea.

Countries such as Thailand can play key roles in solving the problems. With no direct interest in the territorial standoffs, Thai diplomats and other officials can use their good offices to urge non-military means at every step of such disputes. With all sides apparently bent on increasing their naval strength, the chances for even accidental violence will increase.

Asean's COC holds a promise of peace, and deserves strong support from all regional countries.

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