Thoughts on Asean
While the domestic concern for Thais is the upcoming general election on March 24, broadly speaking it is a relatively small geopolitical event.
We must not lose sight of the bigger picture: The trade war and battle for supremacy between the US and China, and its effects on Thailand and Asean. Look no further than the newly elected Malaysian government cancelling the China-backed rail and pipeline projects, endorsed by the Najib-led government. China and the US will each put pressure on Dr Mahathir's government with different interests in mind.
In Dec 2018, Abhisit Vejajiva gave an interview to Nikkei Asian Review, suggesting that Asean nations -- with Thailand's turn as its chair -- should negotiate with China and its Belt & Road Initiative as a bloc. Moreover, he added that the advertising revenue of the tech giants must be taxed for the benefit of the region. I agree to both and will add that it will be a long time before Asean can enjoy similar benefits as those of EU, while minimising its costs to avoid a Brexit-like scenario.
Perhaps by 2050, Asean will have adopted a single digital currency, become cashless, and use E-Asean passports. Politically speaking, by 2050, today's generation of politicians will have either retired or "expired", leaving room for compromise and mutual cooperation within each nation and between Asean nations. Asean must learn from today's Brexit to avoid "Singxit" or "Thaixit" in the event of us merging with other Asean nations in deeper ways than today.
Last but not least is striking a balance between non-interference principle vs ceding some autonomy for Asean collective interest. The last point will be a hard nut to crack partly due to Asian values. When there is domestic violence in your neighbourhood, most Thais will treat it as their neighbour's private matter. So too will they treat a genocide in their neighbouring country as a private matter. That said, success in climate, economic and food securities in the future will heavily depend on global cooperation.