Under Thailand's chairmanship of Asean, the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia (Eria) was commissioned to examine future challenges facing the bloc over the next two decades. To this end, it has produced the "Asean Vision 2040: Towards a Bolder and Stronger Asean" report.
Ahead of the 35th Asean Summit, Prof Hidetoshi Nishimura, President of Eria, shares his views on the past, present and the future of the regional grouping in an interview with the Bangkok Post.
What impact do you think the US-China trade war will have on the future economic development of the Asean region?
It is hard to provide a full picture as the ongoing conflict continues to loom large and affects all the global trading schemes. So far, the Asean countries have weathered the storm quite well. Countries like Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand have benefited from the US-China trade war as many industries have had to relocate outside China.
What changes might occur to the global supply chain if the US-China trade war continues unabated?
Obviously, the future of global value chains will change significantly. It is a good opportunity for the countries of Asean to make necessary adjustments so they are well placed to benefit from the relocation of major industries. Countries with close proximity to China have benefited greatly from the trade war. I would like to suggest that Asean should harness ICT technology and adopt 4IR (4th Industrial Revolution) programmes. Asean should also upgrade its role in the global value chain to overcome the negative impacts of the US-China trade war.
What are the prospects for the much-discussed Japan-China cooperation with a third country?
This scheme of cooperation has great potential because Japan and China complement each other. Their cooperation would be ideal when geared towards beneficiary countries. I think Thailand has been chosen as the pilot project for this kind of cooperation between Japan and China. In future, such trilateral cooperation will mark a new beginning of economic cooperation.
How can Asean shield itself from the fallout caused by the Japan-South Korea trade dispute?
This is a difficult question. At the moment, the two countries are still locked in disputes. They are trying to resolve their disagreements which stem from historical agreements. I think both countries should learn lessons from Asean, especially the Indonesian "Pancasila" principles including civilised humanity, democracy led by the wisdom of consensus, and social justice for all. We are living in the 21st Century; they need to practice peaceful coexistence. Both Japan and South Korea are two major Asian dialogue partners of Asean, and they are crucial, therefore, for the community-building that is still going on. I believe that both countries will be able to settle their differences soon, also for the benefit of the region.
Do you think the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) could be completed under the Thai chair?
I am confident that negotiations for RCEP will wrap up under Thailand's chairmanship. Obviously, given the complexity of RCEP and its details, it would take additional time to formalise the overall agreement. RCEP is a very important tool for economic progress in the region especially at this point in time when some of the big trading countries have become more inward-looking and restrictive in their trade policies. RCEP is the symbol of free trade still being very much alive and it strengthens the overall Asean Community. Lest we forget, Asean has been a norm-setting institution throughout its existence. Therefore, the RCEP framework would represent a common tariff structure affecting half of the world's population.
You have been an experienced Asian watcher for decades. Do you think it is possible to create an East Asian Community as envisaged by the Asean plus three leaders?
Certainly, I am a true believer in the Asian Century. I must say that the current East Asia Summit is the basis for the future EAS Community. East Asia is a dynamic place which enjoys economic growth, peace, prosperity and stability. The region now may have some frictions, but I am sure these problems will be resolved. The East Asian Community has already existed in its present form since the early 1990s when the region was facing economic meltdown. All countries in the region got together to work out common approaches and policies to overcome the crisis. Since then the cooperation among the East Asian countries has increased strongly and taken many forms. The Asean community is the core of the EAS community, which is supported by the Asean plus mechanisms.
How can the Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific interface with Japan's Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision?
[The] Asean Outlook on the Indo-Pacific is a very important document. It is a guideline for dialogue partners that want to engage and cooperate with Asean in the years to come. The outlook shows that Asean's strength still rests on the grouping's leaders, who are very adaptable and flexible. Therefore, Japan's own vision of the Indo-Pacific fits very well with that of Asean. It is well known that Japan has been the key donor and a real partner in the economic development of Southeast Asia throughout the past five decades. This experience will be useful in synergising the two cooperative frameworks. I am sure Japan and Asean will be able to identify many valuable projects that will be funded and executed.
What are the five most important recommendations from the Asean 2040 Report?
There are many good recommendations contained in the Asean 2040 Vision Report. I must thank Thailand for commissioning Eria to do this report.
Most important of all, I think Asean has to be humble and proactive with a common diplomatic stance underpinned by the principle of collective leadership to further strengthen Asean Centrality.
Second, Asean has to be adaptive to the Digital Transformation and the so-called 4IR pathway.
Third, Asean has to harness new technologies, practices and policies to achieve a resilient, energy-secure and sustainable Asean.
Fourth, Asean must develop good regulatory practices and governance that can further integrate the Asean economies. Finally, Asean has to be people-centred and inclusive, so that nobody will be left behind.