Next year is looking increasingly certain to be an eventful one on the political front as more credible signs are pointing to an early election sometime in the middle of 2022.
However, the man who will make that decision is not giving anything away.
During the vaccine shortage saga that began at the onset of the third outbreak of Covid-19 at the beginning of April, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's leadership was in a precarious state.
The vaccines that trickled in from overseas on account of limited orders was thought by many critics to be one of the last nails in the government's coffin as the rapidly multiplying fatalities caused by the pandemic put immense pressure on the administration. Gen Prayut was blamed for what has been ridiculed as a spectacular vaccine policy blunder.
Gen Prayut was put under a great deal of duress both in and outside of parliament. The youth-led protests cited the alleged vaccine policy mismanagement to step up pressure on the government, while the opposition moved in at the most opportune time to launch a no-confidence motion over the vaccine issue in early September.
But the premier's political fortunes began looking up when vaccines started rolling in and the heightened virus containment measures began paying off. Daily caseloads would soon dip and the downward spiral of infections has since continued.
As the pandemic crisis showed some semblance of being brought under control, floods ravaged large swaths of the Central Plains region and the Northeast. The catastrophe instantly put the government on the spot for being slow to respond to a natural disaster that it saw coming and had plenty of time to prepare for.
The negative publicity over the floods was effectively overshadowed by Gen Prayut's announcement of a Nov 1 reopening of the country's tourism industry and the resumption of the commercial air links.
Amid some caution about the border reopening triggering a pandemic resurgence, many including those in the tourism, service, hospitality and retail sectors welcomed the news with open arms. These industries, heavily starved of business for almost two years because of Covid-19, supported the prime minister's decision to put the economy back on track.
An observer said November came and went with rather depressing developments for the anti-government protesters. Their campaign was reportedly losing strength after many of their young core leaders were remanded in prison again for violating their bail conditions. In addition, the movement suffered deep internal conflicts over cash donations which some co-leaders refused to declare.
A prominent anti-government activist was reported to have said that it was pointless trying to oust Gen Prayut as the administration has only a little more than a year left. The government's term expires in March 2023.
Although threats to Gen Prayut's leadership were ebbing away, speculation on the timing of the next election has not. Observers say a prime minister choosing the best time to dissolve the House and call an election is a matter of employing the right tactic.
Traditionally, a prime minister would do so when the government has slumped into an irreversible crisis or when it is basking in popularity.
An election could provide either an escape from serious dire straits or a way of prolonging a government's life, the observers say.
Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam earlier warned the cabinet to brace for election calls after the business of amending two laws vital for implementing the dual-ballot election system is over, possibly in July next year.
The two organic laws -- the Political Parties Act and the MP Election Act -- are to be revised to reflect the constitutional amendments reverting the single-ballot election to a dual ballot system, one for electing constituency MPs and the other for the party list.
Citing convention, Mr Wissanu, a noted law expert, said he expected political parties to clamour for an early election shortly after the revision of the two laws is over.
He was taken aback when he was asked by reporters about the chances of a House dissolution before the laws were enacted. "It would be a mess. Let's pray that doesn't happen," he said.
However, Gen Prayut sees himself still firmly in the top seat well beyond July next year. In fact, he has vowed to stay in office until at least the 2022 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit which Thailand will host in Phuket in early December next year.
He also dismissed the opposition's claim that the government was so beset by problems that it would soon be ready to throw the towel. The premier insisted that was "pure imagination".
Government spokesman Thanakorn Wangboonkongchana said that Gen Prayut would not entertain the notion of the House of Representatives being disbanded before the two organic laws related to the election method are fixed.
Straight in at the deep end
Asmall political development quietly came to pass last weekend when the Democrat Party held an assembly to fill a key post left vacant by Nipit Intarasombat, according to political observers.
Dech-it: Thrust into poll position
After almost three decades with the Democrats, the veteran politician from Phatthalung quit early this month for good, prompting the party to a find new deputy leader who would be in charge of political affairs in the southern region, the party's home turf.
During the assembly last Saturday, first-time MP for Songkhla, Dech-it Khaothong, comfortably defeated veteran politician Chinnaworn Boonyakiat, receiving 60% of the votes to become deputy leader.
His victory over Mr Chinnaworn, a nine-time MP for Nakhon Si Thammarat, took his career to new heights and spoke volumes about his growing clout in the country's oldest political party, according to observers.
Mr Dech-it gained wide recognition following the March 2019 general election when he was first elected as an MP. And while the Democrats lost their long-held political dominance in the South, Mr Dech-it captured the largest number of votes of any candidate in Songkhla.
The Democrats' win in the provincial administrative organisation (PAO) chairman election in Songkhla in December last year was also attributed to him.
The Songkhla MP joined hands with Democrats, Thaworn Senneam and Niphon Bunyamanee, in backing Paijen Maksuwan who defeated Col Suchart Chantrachotikul of the "Songkhla Pracharath" group in the contest.
Since then Mr Dech-it has reportedly earned the trust of party secretary-general Chalermchai Sri-on who, along with Mr Niphon, vouched for him for the deputy party leader post.
According to observers, Mr Dech-it's rise to the post comes with challenges following the party's catastrophic defeat in the March 2019 general election.
Following his appointment, Mr Dech-it announced that he will reclaim the South for the party by looking to win at least 35 constituency seats out of 57 in the next general election.
However, his first task is to prepare for two by-elections in the southern region that the Democrat Party cannot afford to lose, observers say.
They will take place in Chumphon's Constituency 1 and Songkhla's Constituency 6 to find replacements for Democrat veterans, Chumpol Julsai and Thaworn Senneam, who have been stripped of their MP status.
The Constitutional Court ruled early this month that the pair, along with three list MPs, could no longer be MPs after being convicted by the Criminal Court in February this year.
A royal decree calling for the by-elections within 45 days of the previous MPs losing their status will be issued following the Constitutional Court's ruling.
As for the list MP slots, they will be filled by the next people on the list of the respective parties.
Political observers believe the by-elections will be a major test for the new deputy party leader particularly if the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) decides to run.
The PPRP appears to be consolidating its base in the region, winning the by-election in Nakhon Si Thammarat in February which was held to replace Thepthai Senpong, a Democrat whose MP status was revoked by the Constitutional Court.
The ruling party's decision to contest the poll outraged several Democrats who saw it as a violation of political etiquette between coalition allies. Mr Dech-it has warned the PPRP to stay out of both upcoming by-elections.
"We hope the PPRP will adhere to political etiquette and not field candidates in the elections to compete with us. But if it does, I'm ready to fight and collide head-on.
"By-elections are known to be extra-ordinary and those in power will mobilise all their resources. But I think locals understand the dynamics and it will not be a hard decision for them," he was quoted as saying.
It is reported that Mr Dech-it plans to field his wife, Supaporn Kamnerdphol, to contest the by-election in Songkhla, and she has been prepped for months. Ms Supaporn is currently vice-chairman of the Songkhla PAO.
The Songkhla poll is expected to be a three-horse race between the Democrat Party, the PPRP and the Kla Party under the leadership of ex-Democrat Korn Chatikavanij, who is also a former finance minister.
According to observers, Mr Dech-it has apparently begun campaigning to help secure a Democrat Party victory and maintain its active presence in Songkhla.
One of his sons, Saksith, is politically active in Songkhla's Constituency 3 -- the support base of Wiratana Kalayasiri who died of cancer in November 2019. The late Democrat contested the previous general election but lost.