China might be a good mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a number of Thai political experts have claimed.
The Institute of Security and International Studies (Isis) of Chulalongkorn University Political Science Faculty yesterday held an online seminar called "The Russia-Ukraine War and Prospects: Impact for World Order and Implications for Asia".
During the seminar, Assoc Prof Jittipat Poonkham, the director of international affairs at Thammasat University's International Studies Programme, said there are three likely scenarios at the moment: a short war, long war or diplomatic solution.
He said all parties are obviously keen to avoid a prolonged conflict that could potentially escalate on a global level and even raise the threat of nuclear retaliation.
"Yet, there has not been much progress in the third scenario, for example, the current ceasefire negotiations are going slowly. Fortunately, we have got some good news as both countries agreed to a temporary ceasefire in some areas to allow civilian evacuations."
He said the key question is whether Western countries will offer a face-saving deal to Russia in light of the prevailing anti-Russia sentiment.
"However, China is becoming more important than ever and it could be a reliable and powerful mediator in the Ukraine-Russia war. Beijing has economic and political leverage with both countries," he said.
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of Isis Thailand, said the situation would depend on the battlefield dynamic which is, at present, very fluid and liable to change at any time. Therefore, China could play a vital role in mediating between the two countries.
"We know Putin visited Beijing to see Xi Jinping during the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. So I think there might be some discussion or understanding, and China could play a mediating role with more leverage than any other major power."