Mercury could hit 50C by 2084

Mercury could hit 50C by 2084

Thailand could see temperatures hit 50C in the next 60 years, with the number of days where the mercury climbs above 40C rising from nine to 75 each year, a leading climate scholar said on Wednesday.

Assoc Prof Seree Supratid, director of the Center for Climate Change and Disasters at Rangsit University, posted on his Facebook page claiming the mercury will peak on Monday before dropping a week later during the Songkran holiday.

Sukhothai is expected to see the highest temperatures in the years to come, said Assoc Prof Seree, adding the province could expect temperatures to climb to 49C by 2084. The current provincial record is 44.5 degrees, logged in 2016, he added.

The hottest provinces after Sukhothai over the next six decades will likely be Phichit (48.74C), Chai Nat (48.48C), Nakhon Sawan (48.08C), Maha Sarakham (47.85C), Khon Kaen (47.58C), Roi Et (47.56C), Lampang (47.19C), Lamphun (47.13C) and Nakhon Ratchasima (46.19C) while Bangkok will see 44.9C, said Assoc Prof Seree.

His forecast is based on world leaders being unable to keep their promises made in the Paris Agreement (2016), which saw them commit to keeping the rise in the global average temperature to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels.

The agreement aims to limit greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming leading to extreme weather such as the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, between 2050 and 2100.

If the Paris Agreement is achievable, the forecast for Thailand would be 44.75C in 60 years, Mr Sukothai claimed. If it is partly achievable, a realistic level would be 46C, he added.

Meanwhile, the number of days above 40C will jump exponentially from nine to 75, said Assoc Prof Seree.

The Meteorological Department said the heat will reach its peak from today until Monday, with downpours expected on April 9-11.

The highest temperatures have been posted in Kanchanaburi (42.3C), Lampang (42C), Ubon Ratchathani and Surin (both at 40.9C), and Pathum Thani (40.7C).

Seree Supratid

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