The year 2024 ended on a rather perplexing note, with a big question mark hanging over what the government has achieved after spending more than 100 days in office.
The 35-member Paetongtarn Shinawatra cabinet marked its first day in office on Sept 4 last year after being endorsed by the King.
It is the second Pheu Thai Party-led administration since the 2023 general election. It succeeded the cabinet headed by Srettha Thavisin, who was dismissed as prime minister by the Constitutional Court, which judged him guilty of a gross violation of ethics for appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister.
Ms Paetongtarn was one of two prime ministerial choices Pheu Thai had left to pick. The other candidate was Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney general.
Mr Chaikasem's name was initially floated as a more credible candidate for the premiership to be put forth for a vote in parliament. However, less than 24 hours later, his candidacy was dropped after Pheu Thai members held an internal meeting where they overwhelmingly selected Ms Paetongtarn, the youngest daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, touted as the party's patriarch, to replace Mr Srettha.
Ms Paetongtarn's rise was smooth sailing. The coalition parties, mainly from the conservative camp that supported the Srettha administration, switched their allegiance to her government.
Critics had a field day speculating on the new, relatively young and inexperienced prime minister's ability to direct state affairs.
It was clear the government was not given a honeymoon period. In fact, its first real test came days after the government's formation with the most destructive floods to ravage the far North in recent years.
Chiang Rai was the worst affected, and the floods could not have come at a worse time for Ms Paetongtarn.
Despite having been elected by parliament as prime minister on Aug 16 last year, she refrained from visiting flooded areas, reasoning her premiership was pending royal endorsement and that she had to wait for her premiership to be formalised.
The government's emergency response was called into question by opponents who cried foul over what they described was a "vacuum of top leadership" needed to surmount disaster-battling challenges, which required the diversion and mobilisation of a national-scale budget, manpower and logistics.
The saving grace for the government came in early September when a "spin-off" of Pheu Thai's flagship digital wallet scheme was rolled out.
Instead of disbursing digital money, however, the government decided to tweak its policy and offered 10,000 baht to vulnerable and disabled state welfare card holders.
The first 3 million out of a total of 14.5 million received their wallet scheme money on Sept 4 last year, according to the Finance Ministry.
The money transfers, made via the PromptPay payment system, attracted criticism for abandoning the digital platform payment and catering to welfare benefits rather than improving the economy, as was the goal of the stimulus scheme the government declared before parliament.
Critics said the government could find itself in hot water for failing to honour the digital money handout pledge.
Also, it could not rightly claim credit for the "welfare" money handout since it was rooted in the original digital wallet scheme, conceived long before Ms Paetongtarn was sworn in as premier.
By early December last year, the government announced it was an opportune time to update people on its achievements.
On Dec 12, Ms Paetongtarn outlined the government's achievements to coincide with its 90th day in office.
However, people were left baffled by the premier's speech, which was light on achievements but heavily focused on plans in store for this year.
A source said it had turned into what sounded like a campaign rally where a new round of promises was being offered.
Admittedly, Ms Paetongtarn described her first 90 days in office as "easing into the job", during which she had to find her feet and look to the needs of the people.
She added that she was learning the ropes as prime minister and spelt out the government's goals for this year.
Her message revolved around introducing "tangible opportunities" and making concrete achievements through the execution of practical policies.
The prime minister also sidetracked to a plan to dissipate two decades of political and social conflicts.
Delving into attainable goals and learning from the flood disasters, she said the government was looking to amend laws so people can dredge waterways to link to a wider web of water drainage channels to fight floods. Soil from the dredging can also be sold to generate income for households, she suggested.
"This year will be the year of opportunities for people," she said.
Other promises include battling recurring PM2.5 fine dust pollution and opening the door to the production and sale of local craft beer to break the monopoly of big brewers.
Yet more included reviving the one-district-one-scholarship project initiated during the Thaksin Shinawatra administration in 2004, targeting students wanting to study at leading overseas universities, launching the "Housing for Thais" project to provide high-quality, affordable housing to people with 99-year leases and expanding the 20-baht flat-rate fare on electric trains.
Question marks about unity
The energy portfolio is widely believed to have attracted interest from heavyweights in the ruling Pheu Thai Party, and in recent weeks, rumours have intensified that Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga might be removed in a cabinet reshuffle.
His position in the government was seen as precarious until former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, widely seen as Pheu Thai's de-facto leader, recently stepped in with a message that may have put Mr Pirapan's mind at ease.
When asked about Mr Pirapan, leader of the United Thai Nation Party (UTN), during a visit to Chiang Rai, Thaksin spoke in favour of bringing household electricity costs down. He also stressed that all monopolies must be dismantled so that people will have lower living costs.
Pirapan: Job safe for now?
Several analysts interpret Thaksin's remarks as a guarantee that Mr Pirapan's job is safe, at least for now. And with Mr Pirapan's position in the government secured, the UTN has a chance of avoiding the same fate as the fragmented Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and Democrat Party, according to analysts.
During the course of Paetongtarn Shinawatra's cabinet formation, the PPRP and the Democrats experienced their most severe internal conflicts.
Former PPRP secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow led a group of 20 MPs in joining the Paetongtarn government while the PPRP under the leadership of Gen Prawit Wongsuwon was booted out of the coalition.
The Thamanat faction, which was granted three cabinet seats, eventually broke free from the PPRP and officially joined the Kla Dharma Party.
The faction's move to Kla Dharma while retaining its members' seats was made possible by the PPRP's decision to expel the group after months of tension. This was believed to be part of a deal to stop more damning information being released about the alleged involvement of a close female associate of Gen Prawit in agricultural land encroachment.
The Democrat Party, which was brought in to fill the void left by Gen Prawit's group, was also polarised, with quite a few old-guard MPs not happy with the party joining the Pheu Thai-led coalition due to different ideologies and policies.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, believes the UTN is unlikely to suffer the same fate as the two other parties, although some argued it might end up splitting, particularly after the retirement of former prime minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, who founded the UTN.
Mr Pirapan reportedly faces resistance from business and policy-making leaders as well as party financiers who are less than happy with his push to reform the energy sector and reduce energy prices, which is also suspected to be linked to the rumour of him being axed from the cabinet.
Talk about the likelihood of the UTN losing financial support from the energy sector also followed former energy minister Supattanapong Punmeechao's resignation from the party.
With key figures turning their backs on the party, some observers predict the UTN will shrink or become fragmented and that energy businesses will shift their support to the Pheu Thai Party.
However, Mr Thanaporn told the Bangkok Post that he was not ready to count the UTN out yet.
He expects the party to avoid the fragmentation that has plagued others, even though Gen Prayut has retired from politics.
Gen Prayut, who was nominated as the party's "No.1" prime ministerial candidate, is credited with helping it secure nearly 5 million party-list votes and win 13 party-list seats in the 2023 general election. This conservative voter base, however, is now being targeted by multiple parties.
Since the last election, the UTN has been seen as lacking unity, comprising three factions led by Mr Pirapan, party secretary-general Akanat Prompan, and another stalwart Suchart Chomklin, who currently serves as deputy commerce minister. Some party MPs are reportedly exploring opportunities with other political groups.
"Even though Gen Prayut has stepped away from politics, the party insists it carries his 'DNA'. Anyone predicting the UTN will fade into history after Gen Prayut's retirement might be mistaken," the analyst said.
As the next election approaches, the UTN will rally around Gen Prayut's legacy and emphasise its role in upholding his vision to secure voter loyalty, he said.
He added that no party MPs are likely to defect because the other political parties that some may consider joining are already controlled by those with established strongholds.
Mr Thanaporn said that the UTN currently supervises two economic portfolios, the Energy Ministry and the Industry Ministry, held by Mr Akanat, which gives it an opportunity to deliver its policies and woo votes.
While the UTN may not attract financiers as wealthy as some of its previous supporters, it exudes confidence that it can still bring new backers ahead of the next polls, he said.
"Defection is not easy and I believe the party's situation is not as bad as some have made it out to be," he said.