The main opposition People's Party (PP) must realise by now its cherished alliance with the ruling Pheu Thai Party has faltered and is moving ever closer to breaking, according to observers.
As the next election -- in less than two years -- time approaches, both parties know all too well that they must keep ahead of one another. The rule of thumb is to wage a war of attrition, and it is apparent the PP has been at it for quite some time.
The party has been spurred into taking Pheu Thai's threat to its prospects at the next general election seriously by its run of defeats in a series of provincial administrative organisation (PAO) chairmanship races last year.
These elections were called after the chairmen in the respective provinces resigned and sought an early re-election.
The chairmen of the remaining PAOs have served out their tenures and elections in these provinces are scheduled to take place on Feb 1.
The PP has not won a single PAO chief election in provinces where it fielded candidates, nor have candidates aligned to the party. Even though the PP managed to avoid a crushing defeat in several provinces, such as Udon Thani, and did, in fact, have better support than in the 2023 general election, the party could use some local poll victories to boost the morale of members and supporters, according to a source.
Some observers agree the PP may have experienced a growing sense of anxiety, especially since most of the PAO poll victories went to Pheu Thai.
However, it has been argued that general elections and PAO chief contests are worlds apart, both in form and voting patterns. In general elections, many parties vie for seats in various constituencies that make up a province, so the level of competitiveness is substantially high, the source noted.
Also, advance and inter-constituency voting are available in general elections which come with people's heightened eagerness to exercise their voting rights.
In comparison, there is no early vote in PAO chief polls. For many of those living or working outside of their hometowns where they are registered to vote, making the journey home to cast ballots is a costly inconvenience.
The PP's social media finesse may have been effective in maintaining its voter base in the cities, but success in the PAO chief polls hinges largely on a candidate's campaign policies on local, non-urban issues. A lot of voters live in rural or upcountry areas and are less enthused about what goes on in social media, according to the source.
The source said that even though local polls present no credible gauge as to how a party will fare in a general election, the PP cannot afford not to augment its support base when it has the chance and expect a landslide victory in the next poll.
The party would be complacent to think some people's disenchantment with what they see as Pheu Thai's lacklustre achievements in government will translate into votes for the PP at the next election.
It would be dangerously unrealistic to anticipate such a flip now that Pheu Thai has populist policies in store, including the next phase of the 10,000-baht cash handout.
At the same time, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra has been out and about in the provinces, helping resurrect Pheu Thai's network of red-shirt supporters. The movement weakened significantly during the more than 15 years Thaksin was away in self-imposed exile.
A number of hard-core, ideologically driven individuals have hung up their red shirts and switched to the PP. The source said Pheu Thai might find it less hard to woo back moderate red shirts, who were the mainstay of the movement.
Thakin has also been aggressively trying to reconnect with powerful political families in the provinces. This strategy may have been the principal reason Pheu Thai won in most of the recent PAO chief polls.
Pheu Thai's growing strength in local politics is set to give it a much-needed edge in national polls through a vast mobilisation of popular support and systematic and collaborative electioneering.
While Pheu Thai is doing well in preparing for the future, the PP has struggled to compete for wider voter attention. The source said the party had placed a heavy focus on issues that do not resonate urgency with most people on the ground, such as constitutional amendments and sorting out referendum rules.
The PP, however, has visibly been more assertive in keeping Pheu Thai in check.
The PAO chairman contests set the stage for Thaksin to speak out against the PP, only to be met with an instant retort. At a campaign rally in Chiang Mai last month, Thaksin reportedly took a swipe at the PP for being bent on creating equality.
"But in the eyes of [the People's Party], equality of status takes priority, unlike the kind of real-deal equality of life opportunities which Pheu Thai is offering everyone," he said.
The PP has been trying to hit Pheu Thai where it hurts the most -- Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The premier was accused by the main opposition party of avoiding answering its questions during an interpellation session in parliament early last month.
Ms Paetongtarn said she was unable to attend the session as she was preoccupied with announcing the government's achievements after 90 days in office.
Frustrated, the PP reminded Ms Paetongtarn that she must pay heed to accountability.
Opposition whip chief Pakornwut Udompipatskul said a no-confidence motion would be submitted against the government during the current parliament session.
PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut has confirmed the censure debate will take place in March and warned the government will be grilled over 20 censure issues, possibly including alleged policy-oriented corruption.
Delving into a medical mystery
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is back in the spotlight, hitting the campaign trail to support Pheu Thai candidates running in the Feb 1 provincial administration organisation (PAO) chairman elections and sharing his vision for the country's future.
While the ruling party's alleged de facto leader is working to revitalise its support base, the controversy over his extended stay at the Police General Hospital (PGH) shows no signs of letting up.
Critics continue to question whether his six-month detention in the PGH's premium ward was a medical necessity or a convenient way to avoid serving time in prison.
The controversy is poised to intensify now that his daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is leading the coalition government and overseeing the Royal Thai Police (RTP), according to political observers.
Thaksin was sentenced to eight years in prison across three cases upon his return from self-imposed exile on Aug 22, 2023, before royal clemency cut the prison term to one year.
He was transferred from a Department of Corrections (DoC) facility to the PGH on his first night and stayed at the PGH for about six months up until he was paroled and discharged from the hospital on Feb 18 last year.
He officially completed his one-year prison term on Aug 31 and has been engaging in various activities since.
According to observers, Thaksin's critics, who strongly suspect his medical conditions were fabricated, are unlikely to lay the issue to rest, especially after the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) released its findings last year that the DoC and the PGH helped Thaksin serve all his jail time in hospital.
These findings paved the way for the justice system to initiate an investigation and take action against doctors involved in any ethical breaches. Currently a group of state officials have found themselves caught in the crossfire over Thaksin's extended hospital stay.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) has launched a probe against 12 officials, including DoC Director-General Sahakarn Phetnarin and PGH chief, Pol Lt Gen Taweesilp Wechawitarn, who stand accused of facilitating Thaksin's extended stay.
The anti-graft agency has accepted the case for investigation with the entire panel of commissioners supervising the process, and appointed advisers and a secretariat to oversee the fact-finding process.
The Medical Council of Thailand (MCT) has also launched its own inquiry into the ethics of doctors who were consulted during Thaksin's treatment in hospital. The investigation panel headed by Dr Amorn Leelarasamee has requested full details of Thaksin's admission, diagnosis and treatment, as well as the names of all the doctors who treated him.
Also requested were copies of all the correspondence pertaining to Thaksin's transfer from the DoC hospital to the PGH, records of surgery, details of medication prescribed, X-rays and lab test results from the day Thaksin was admitted to the day he was discharged.
The MCT is expected to take 45 days to thoroughly review Thaksin's medical records. However, due to the data privacy law, these records might remain confidential and unavailable to the public.
Jatuporn: Targeting Thaksin
Former red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan is hopeful that the outcome of the MCT's ethical probe will provide evidence to support the NACC's investigation.
Mr Jatuporn has placed full confidence in NACC commissioner, Ekkawit Watchawanku, a former Supreme Court chief justice who is leading the inquiry.
He believes the NACC investigation will widen to include those who allegedly helped Thaksin dodge serving his sentence without spending a full day in jail.
If it is discovered that Thaksin was not genuinely ill, the 10 individuals who visited him at the hospital should also face accountability for aiding misconduct and concealing information, Mr Jatuporn.
Ms Paetongtarn should anticipate pressure and brace for intense scrutiny over what looks likely to be a hot potato landing in her lap.
According to Mr Jatuporn, anti-Thaksin groups will submit a letter to Ms Paetongtarn next week to pressure her into taking action as she oversees the RTP.
Early this week, these groups rallied outside the RTP headquarters calling on national police chief Pol Gen Kitrat Phanphet to address the matter.
The former red-shirt leader said that the 12 officials under investigation should ask themselves whether aiding Thaksin is worth the irrevocable damage to their reputation and the potential legal consequences. The doctors involved risk having their medical licences revoked and may even face imprisonment.
"They should carefully consider what may be in store for them for helping Thaksin who defied the court's ruling and undermined the country's justice system," he said.