A political party will need at least 70,000 votes to win a seat in the upcoming election while small parties with no hope for constituency MPs will need 1.75 million party votes if it wants to propose prime minister candidates.
Election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn wrote on Facebook on Monday about his calculations based on the 2017 constitution and data from the previous election.
Mr Somchai foresaw 35 million people casting the ballots based on 50 million eligible voters and the 70% turnout rate of the previous election.
“Based on these numbers, each party would need to win 70,000 [party] votes to get a seat,” he said.
However, with the introduction of the mixed member apportionment (MMA) system, things get more complicated.
A larger party which already has 200 constituency MPs but falls short in terms of party votes, with fewer than 14 million, may not get any party-list MPs, he warned.
“Every 70,000 votes above 14 million will give it one party-list MP. For instance, if it gets 16.1 million party votes, it will be allowed 30 party-list MPs based on the 2.1 million additional votes it has, or 230 MPs in all,” Mr Somchai explained.
Small parties counting on 25 party-list MPs so they can propose PM candidates without any hope of getting constituency MPs must get 1.75 million party votes.
“This means you need to field candidates in as many constituencies as possible because you won’t get any party-list MPs unless you go for constituencies.
“Whoever says politics involves only people’s participation may need to think again,” writes Mr Somchai. (Bangkok Post file photo)
“Assuming they field candidates for all 350 constituencies, they need to win 5,000 votes in each on average.”
In terms of expenses, the application fee for each constituency candidate is 10,000 baht so a party would need 3.5 million baht if it runs in all 350 constituencies.
For campaigns, large parties may use 1.5 million baht for each constituency while smaller ones may spend 100,000 baht each, or 35 million baht in total.
“All in all, a party would need at least 40-50 million baht, which still gives it no guarantee it would get the minimum 5,000 votes per constituency.
“Whoever says politics involves only people’s participation, not money, may need to think again,” Mr Somchai wrote.
The 2017 constitution stipulates 500 MPs -- 350 from constituencies and 150 from party lists. But unlike in previous elections, a voter gets only one voting ticket. The candidate he chooses will get a constituency vote while his party automatically gets a party vote.
The charter also introduced the MMA system. The candidates with the most votes in a constituency are still the winners but the party votes for all candidates will be counted.
These party votes will then determine the total seats a party may get. In Mr Somchai’s example, if a party gets 7 million party votes, it has a quota of 100 MPs.
The number of constituency MPs it wins will then be deducted from this quota. If the party already has 90 constituency MPs, it gets another 10 party-list MPs.