Uncertainty is unhealthy for investments and the prime minister is being urged to exercise his leadership by spelling out whether or not the current economic team will stay put in the next reshuffle.
Some economists have predicted the economy could get a lot worse before it gets better even though the Covid-19 transmission in the country appears to be under control.
And when the economy, which was languishing well before the pandemic struck early this year, takes a battering, so will politics and the government's success in containing the outbreak which has won Thailand global plaudits, will be all but wiped out.
The economists cautioned people not to be fooled by a "mirage" conjured up in the past few weeks as most Covid-19 restrictions have been eased and people have gone about their daily lives as usual. People hit the holiday trail during the long weekend last week and public spending appears to have surged, creating the impression of a struggling economy finally being lifted and on its way to a full recovery.
However, the economists said the main engine of the economy -- tourism -- which accounts for 6-7% of the country's GDP, has not even begun to show signs of life. Thailand would have welcomed 40 million overseas visitors this year, according to official figures, had it not been for the coronavirus, which looks certain to put a huge dent on that number.
Although the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand last week removed its ban on international flights imposed in April to stave off the Covid-19 transmission, it is not business as usual for the tourism sector. Borders in many countries remain shut and even where they have been reopened, people affected financially by the pandemic are likely to delay all but essential travel.
On other fronts, the pandemic has taken its toll on domestic business, with many companies either faltering or going under. Those left standing are finding it increasingly difficult to keep paying their workers due to weak purchasing power and orders which are drying up.
Economists said the impact of the virus around the world is unprecedented. Unlike the Tom Yum Kung financial meltdown of 1997, which centred on the financial sector, the current crisis is being compounded by a second wave of outbreaks in some countries.
The longer the pandemic goes unabated outside of Thailand, the less likely that local businesses will be back on their feet any time soon, thus raising the prospect of an upsurge of unemployment, according to a source familiar with the state of the economy.
People are looking to the government for assurances and hope of a firm and practical policy to stabilise the economy in the months ahead. The country is entering its post-pandemic recovery period with hundreds of billions of baht promised by the government to kick-start economic revitalisation programmes.
However, the air is thick with scepticism over who will provide the guiding hand in the recovery. Will it be the same economic team led by Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak? Or will the ruling Palang Pracharath Party have its way and replace the current team with people it has groomed for the economic minister posts?
These questions breed uncertainty, sapping public confidence about the country's path to economic revival, according to the critics. Even though Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has asserted that he has encountered no problem working with the Somkid-led team, he has stopped short of declaring who, if anyone, will remain in the next reshuffle.
The critics insist unless the premier is unequivocal about the team's fate, there will be room for speculation, conjecture and interpretation, all of which would bode ill for public confidence in the next crucial phase of the recovery.
Also, the government's achievement in taming the spread of the coronavirus may come in handy in beating the economic odds.
The economists believe Gen Prayut fumbled in applying the best policies to contain Covid-19 at the onset of the outbreak. However, he soon enlisted the help of the country's top medical experts to work out containment measures and advise on their implementation.
Now that the priority has swung to rejuvenating the economy, the prime minister should do the same and consult with people in the know in the economic and financial sectors to design a comprehensive recovery plan and ensure its execution.
But before that, Gen Prayut should send out a clear signal over the government's economic team, said the economists.
Krungsivilai: Yellow-carded by EC
Real friends hard to find?
Real friends may be hard to come by in politics, which could be why the Move Forward Party (MFP) has decided to stand in the by-election in Samut Prakan on Aug 9.
The MFP's decision to jump into the race may also increase the defending champion's chances of re-election.
The Election Commission (EC) called the by-election in constituency 5 of Samut Prakan province after Krungsivilai Suthinphueak of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) was yellow-carded over suspicion of involvement in vote-buying. He was investigated after a close political aide handed out cash at a funeral in his constituency during the run-up to the March 24 general election last year.
The case reached the Supreme Court's Election Cases Division which found the cash giveaway to be a conduit that could have motivated the receiver to vote for Mr Krungsivilai in the poll. The act constituted a breach of the Elections Act. The court also ordered a by-election to be held.
Technically, a yellow-carded MP can register as a candidate in a by-election and the ruling PPRP has given its mandate to Mr Krungsivilai, a well-known star of the silver screen of yesteryear, to enter the competition in the hope of reclaiming victory.
He will be up against not one but two potential candidates from the largest parties in the opposition.
It had been anticipated that only one of either the MFP or the fellow opposition Pheu Thai Party would be vying for the MP post. So, eyebrows were raised when Pheu Thai and the MFP made it known separately that they would send their candidates into battle.
Political analysts conceded they failed to see how either the MFP or Pheu Thai would emerge victorious in the Aug 9 poll. Having both parties in the same race and therefore cutting into each other's share of the vote would likely place them at a disadvantage.
In last year's general election, Mr Krungsivilai beat his nearest rivals from the now-defunct Future Forward Party (FFP) by about 8,000 votes and Pheu Thai by about 10,000 votes, which is not a terribly wide margin given the fierce competition, according to the analysts. After the FFP was dissolved by the Constitutional Court over a loan irregularity, the party was reborn as the MFP.
If either the MFP or Pheu Thai step aside in the Aug 9 poll, it could be a game-changer and might send the PPRP packing.
For example, if Pheu Thai doesn't take part in the by-election, its supporters are predicted to be inclined to vote for an MFP candidate, which could hand Mr Krungsivilai a decisive defeat, judging from the March 24 vote tally. In last year's poll, Mr Krungsivilai won with 41,745 votes, followed by Pheu Thai's Salinthip Sukkawat with 33,007 votes and the FFP's Traiwat Imjai with 31,430. Ms Salinthip and Mr Traiwat command over 60,000 votes between them.
Wiroj Lakana-adisorn, the MFP spokesman, said the party would definitely give both the PPRP and Pheu Thai a run for their money. The MFP said it is eager to add to its representatives in parliament to expand its capacity to work for the national interest.
The MFP has reportedly selected Isarawut Na Nan, a Samut Prakan-based businessman, to stand under its banner.
At the same time, Pheu Thai unveiled Ms Salinthip as its candidate. The party members in Samut Prakan are being sounded out over Ms Salinthip's potential candidacy before the party executive board decides on July 10 whether to officially let her contest the by-election.
A source in the MFP said the party was rather disappointed that Pheu Thai had not agreed to stand aside. The MFP announced it would run in the by-election before Pheu Thai debuted its candidate because it had thought the main opposition party would make way for the MFP. But Pheu Thai went ahead and declared it would seize the opportunity for Ms Salinthip, who served as MP in the constituency before Mr Krungsivilai dethroned her, to prove her worth.
A source in the PPRP said Mr Krungsivilai is being given solid backing from a high-profile politician in Samut Prakan. The politician has teamed up with Suchart Chomklin, a Chon Buri MP and a senior member of the ruling party, to help Mr Krungsivilai secure the electoral victory. If Mr Krungsivilai is re-elected, it might bode well for Mr Suchart's chances of landing a cabinet post in the next reshuffle. Mr Krungsivilai and Mr Suchart belong to the same faction in the PPRP.
Also, Mr Krungsivilai's win would also be an image booster for Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon who was recently elected as the PPRP's leader.