A deafening silence
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A deafening silence

New year, new rallies but holiday break could see protesters' momentum lost, argue observers - Contenders for the vacant role of chief whip begin whispering campaigns, with outspoken MP Veerakorn Kamprakob among favourites

Several predictions have been made about the country's political climate remaining placid at least for another month or until after the New Year.

Prayut: Trusted to defend monarchy

The nation has not witnessed a mass anti-government rally since the Constitutional Court handed down its ruling on Dec 2 that cleared Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha of a charge of conflict of interest arising from his tenancy of the army house he has been occupying since before the May 2014 coup which he led.

At the rally, its co-leaders told the protesters they would meet again after the New Year and the appointment was confirmed recently by a protest co-organiser who promised a prompt return of the rallies at the beginning of next year. He said protesters would come back more robust and be ready to "escalate" their demands to a level so high they would "shoot through the roof".

Some analysts, however, were left wondering why the protest steered by the Ratsadon movement has to wait for weeks before making their next move, which marks a departure from their usual pattern where they staged frequent mass rallies throughout Bangkok over the past several months.

Theories abound which might explain why the protest organisers are taking a break. One theory said that organisers needed time to sort out an internal conflict which opponents of the gleefully speculated had reached boiling point last week when protest co-leader Parit "Penguin" Chiwarak announced on his Facebook page on Dec 11 that volunteer security guards at the rallies will be replaced with professionally trained ones.

He said professionals would better protect protesters from the authorities, describing security guards as the "main weapon" in their political campaign.

Various groups of volunteer guards were deployed at previous rallies including the "We Volunteer", aka Wevo, as well as the outfit known to comprise vocational students and members of the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.

However, some of the guards from different units or even within the groups themselves did not get along and many also felt since the protesters have declared that there is no ultimate leader commanding the movement, they had no one to report to, according to a political observer.

A red-shirt figure who took part in providing security to the anti-government protests was quoted as saying he suspected professional guards may be hired from a firm set up ahead of time to specifically supply personnel at rallies.

However, the guards may be the least of the protesters' concerns. Some critics said by being absent from the political scene, protesters were letting Gen Prayut and the government score points from the hugely popular co-payment scheme which subsidises half the cost of purchases at small shops, known as Kon La Krueng. The programme recently entered its second phase and is expected to inject 45 billion baht into the economy from January to March next year, according to the Fiscal Policy Office.

The observer said the more strength the government gains, the tougher the time the protesters will face in maintaining their movement's momentum.

The movement, according to the observer, may not be moving in the same direction with a number of sub-groups, most notably the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration and the Free People, working under the Ratsadon umbrella.

Any rally that does not present a unified message loses its leverage, said the observer.

However, it may not be so much the composition of the movement as its strategy that is causing a setback.

The protesters have made three core demands -- that Gen Prayut step down as premier, the constitution be rewritten and reform of the monarchy be pursued.

The observer said protesters were appearing to attach more priority to reforming the monarchy than their other demands, and this was a major blunder.

According to the observer, the demand for reform by the protesters has drummed up large-scale support not only for the higher institution but for Gen Prayut too.

This is because pro-monarchy camp is tacitly rallying behind the prime minister as they believe him to be the best person to protect the crown.

Wirach: Could face trial next month

Job opening for PM's 'bodyguard'

The search for a new chief government whip is said to be under way after the Office of the Attorney-General (OAG) decided last month to indict Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) MP and incumbent chief government whip Wirach Ratana­sate over a graft-tainted deal to construct futsal courts at schools in the Northeast.

The OAG has up to 60 days in which to complete drafting the charges before indicting the politician in the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions.

Speculation is rife that the case will be brought to court some time next month.

Once the court accepts the case for deliberation, Mr Wirach -- who stands accused of engaging in policy-oriented corruption by unlawfully interfering in budget matters and diverting funds meant for school repairs to futsal field construction -- will be suspended as an MP.

That means he can no longer serve as the chief government whip and PPRP leader Prawit Wongsuwon is reportedly looking for someone to replace him if and when Mr Wirach is forced to step aside and stand trial.

Many PPRP members expect to see one of the party's old hands with solid experience in the parliamentary system succeed Mr Wirach who is known to be close to Gen Prawit.

Mr Wirach defected from the Pheu Thai Party and led his group to join the PPRP in last year's general election.

Among the potential candidates Gen Prawit may be looking at is Nakhon Sawan MP Veerakorn Kamprakob, a former PM's Office minister who serves as chair of various House committees, according to a highly placed source in the party.

The chief government whip's job is to ensure good communication is maintained with and between the coalition parties as well as the smooth handling of parliamentary business.

The post requires its occupant to be in command of exceptional political skills and finesse. And it will be even better if the person is well-versed in law and parliamentary regulations.

It has been reported that another PPRP MP for Nakhon Sawan, Nirote Sunthornleka, has emerged as a front-runner for the post.

The three-time MP drew public attention in September when he rose to defend Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha from a grilling from opposition MPs in a general debate.

The MP raised eyebrows when he criticised the choice of clothing worn by Move Forward Party MP Amarat Chokepamitkul at one point in the debate. He claimed her attire did not conform with House rules and suggested that she go home and get changed.

From this debate, he became known as Gen Prayut's "defender".

However, critics and many PRPP members doubt that he would be a good fit for the role of chief government whip.

Some ruling party members liken his outward character and speaking style to those of controversial PPRP MPs Sira Jenjaka and Pareena Kraikupt and critics wonder whether he will be up to the job especially when the opposition is gearing up for another no-confidence motion against Gen Prayut early next year.

The planned censure motion -- the second such move in parliament against the current administration -- is expected to focus on the government's handling of the faltering economy and alleged corruption.

The opposition has already vowed to be merciless with the government.

Sutin Klungsang, chief opposition whip and an MP for the main opposition Pheu Thai Party, insisted the opposition bloc was preparing the no-confidence motion for submission to parliament next month.

In the meantime, the opposition parties are compiling ammunition to be used in the grilling of cabinet ministers to be targeted.

Mr Sutin was tightlipped on who will be in the crosshairs this time. However, it is expected Gen Prayut will be the prime target on account of him being government leader. Knocking him out will also bring down the entire cabinet.

Other possible targets are Deputy Agriculture Minister Capt Thamanat Prompow over his handling of the land reform programme.

The debate is predicted to be another tough session for the government and will need a strong chief whip to help it survive the onslaught.

But with a blessing from Gen Prawit, Mr Nirote is strongly tipped to walk away with the chief whip job.

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