The odds had been stacked against the government when bets were placed on the chances of it surviving the political consequences of the charter amendment fiasco.
The issue has since blown over and the government has emerged largely unscathed.
But it turns out a potential death-trap has manifested itself in the form of a draft referendum bill which, if it meets with the same fate as the charter amendment bill, could spell doom for the government.
The amendment business was highly anticipated because it was adopted as an election manifesto pledge by many political parties including the coalition Democrat and the Bhumjaithai parties. They counted on the amendment bill materialising and being passed without a hitch.
In fact, the two parties made a charter rewrite their condition for joining the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP)-led administration.
On the streets, the Ratsadon protesters heaped pressure on the government to “democratise” the current constitution it chided as being the fruit of military dictatorship. The movement has incorporated charter changes in its protest demands although critics noted the protest leaders rarely touched on the subject during the months-long rallies.
The other demands are Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s immediate resignation as prime minister and reform of the monarchy.
This month, the charter amendment bill came and went. The ill-fated bill, a combination of two drafts proposed by the opposition and the government, was dropped in the third and final reading because it failed it garner enough support from both chambers.
So why did the bill meet its demise? Observers agreed most lawmakers dreaded the prospect of getting into trouble with the constitution by going ahead with the final vote on the bill. Their fear was justified by an earlier Constitutional Court’s ruling that the amendment bill via Section 256 of the constitution would involve replacing the current charter, in which case a referendum before and after the charter is rewritten would be required.
Several parliamentarians argued the bill was not meant for wholesale amendment and to adopt it as though it was would contravene the constitution, which is an offence.
It was believed that killing the bill would give the protesters a major pretext for revving up their rallies. However, the dwindling movement has yet to show it can regain traction.
Some government members have moved to pacify political tensions stemming from the sinking of the bill. They insisted the referendum requirement could be tip-toed around if the charter is modified section by section and this could be done as soon as the next ordinary parliamentary session reconvenes.
Political observers said it appeared sectional amendment was the only available recourse. However, it also means the referendum bill, admitted for deliberation to parliament in parallel with the amendment bill, is destined to be made useless even if it were to see the light of day.
But the observers maintained that the referendum bill could deal the government a crushing blow if it fell short of enactment.
The referendum bill, currently in the second reading stage, risks being voted down in the end because the changes made so far to Section 9 are feared to be unconstitutional. The changes, put forth by the opposition, authorise parliament and the public to initiate a sign-up campaign calling for a referendum to be held on any issue. Some senators insisted the authority went beyond the limits of the constitutional framework.
The crux of the matter is that the fate of the referendum bill is thought to be tied to that of the government since it sponsored the legislation. Also, the bill is deemed a crucial piece of legislation and its failure to be passed would likely compel the government to follow the customary practice of resigning or calling a fresh election in a show of responsibility.
Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, who is the government’s strongest hand in legal affairs, has reportedly appealed to coalition parties to vote in favour of the referendum bill. He made the plea during a recent cabinet meeting.
Mr Wissanu admitted the opposition’s defeat of Section 9 might be problematic and suggested government MPs unite to help the bill in the third reading. They could then initiate another bill to immediately amend the referendum bill to return it to its original version.
Back in the fray
The public has seen plenty of action from the youth-led movement for more than a year. But the anti-government campaign is likely to be reset now that veteran political activist Jatuporn Prompan is entering the fray.
The chairman of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) has recently announced a plan to lead a campaign against Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and chosen to kick-start his movement tomorrow at 4pm at Santiporn Park off Ratchadamnoen Klang Avenue.
According to the red-shirt leader, it is high time Gen Prayut, who has been running the country since the May 2014 coup, was removed from power by means of a popular uprising for a number of reasons; he has failed to implement national reforms, held onto power longer than he had to, and the worst of it all, lacked the will and sincerity to push for a charter rewrite.
In his Peace Talk programme broadcast on Facebook on March 31, Mr Jatuporn stresses Gen Prayut is “the core of all the problems the country faces and his ouster will enable those problems to be resolved”.
Mr Jatuporn’s move comes just as the youth-led movement is weakening with several young protest leaders being detained pending court hearings on multiple charges related to their roles in the street protests.
His show of intent to return to lead mass rallies has many political observers speculating that street protests will involve older crowds and a change of agenda; from demanding reform of the monarchy to zeroing in on toppling the government.
Mr Jatuporn has made it abundantly clear that issues related to the royal institution, which are one of demands pressed by young protesters, are not on the table.
However, there are doubts that Mr Jatuporn’s new political battle will come to fruition even though no one questions his experience in political activism.
The red-shirt leader was among student activists rallying pro-democracy demonstrators at Ramkhamhaeng University in the 1992 May uprising to oust the Suchinda Kraprayoon administration. The huge protests of May 17-20, 1992 erupted following the 1991 coup.
Mr Jatuporn also spearheaded anti-government protests in 2009 and 2010 against the Abhisit Vejjajiva government which ended in bloodshed. The red shirts wanted a House dissolution and targeted the elite bureaucracy, or amataya, in their campaign.
Despite being a prominent actor in the country’s key political events, Mr Jatuporn has been away from political actions for several years and might be already past his prime, according to political observers.
What’s more, his critics do not forget his connections with fugitive prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who has lately burst onto the scene via the audio-based social networking app, Clubhouse. Mr Jatuporn is known as a long-time ally of Thaksin and this could make supporters of charter amendments turn away.
Some even have suspicions about the supposedly “convenient” timing of Thaksin’s growing appearance in chatrooms and Mr Jatuporn’s move to launch a mass campaign against the government. However, sources in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) insist no connection has been made between the pair at this point.
According to the sources, Mr Jatuporn has limited his political activities and been “soft” on Gen Prayut all through these years largely thanks to Seksakol Atthawong, a former red-shirt leader who is a vice minister to the Prime Minister’s Office.
It is believed Mr Seksakol, who is known to have earned the trust of Gen Prayut and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, has been tasked with dealing with various political groups to ensure their activities will not pose serious challenges to the government.
Some political observers believe Mr Jatuporn’s move will only add something of a jolt to the scene now the momentum of the youth-led demonstrations has substantially weakened.
Mr Jatuporn himself has admitted that the task of mounting a campaign against the government is not easy. He said it will need support from the rival red shirts and the yellow shirts who previously belonged to the now-defunct People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and the pro-military People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).
“I hope the red shirts, the PAD and the PDRC who agree with the campaign will join and announce their stance before we turn [the forum tomorrow] into a demonstration to oust Gen Prayut.”
Tomorrow’s event at Santiporn Park, which is organised by a support group for relatives of the Black May 1992 victims, could offer a glimpse into the Mr Jatuporn’s potential campaign to end Gen Prayut’s prolonged stay in power.