There must be a lot in it for Tony Woodsome to be trying to reconnect with people back in Thailand, according to political sources.
If his frequent appearances on the audio app Clubhouse were his investment, there must be a prize he is chasing after.
Tony Woodsome, a Clubhouse alias of fugitive premier Thaksin Shinawatra, has been around in politics long enough to know a general election is looming when he can sniff one.
The sources observed that Thaksin made his Clubhouse debut earlier in the year when the youth-led protests were losing strength and not long after Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan broke away from the main opposition Pheu Thai Party and registered her Sang Thai (Nation Building) group.
His talk programmes on all things about politics and economics also came at a time when opposition to the government was building up with the breaking onto the scene of what is viewed as a resurrection of the red-shirt movement led by Jatuporn Prompan, chair of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.
But Thaksin's "communication" sessions coincided with the country's nightmarish experience with Covid-19, its worst national health catastrophe.
The sources said these various incidents may superficially come across as having occurred in isolation. However, foreign-based Thaksin, although looking from the outside, might have seen they were interconnected and lunged at the opportunity to capitalise on some heavy political gains that could transpire in the months ahead.
The youth-led Ratsadon protests, which officially took off as a mass movement at Sanam Luang in August last year, failed to expand as critics lambasted them for having gone too far with their core demand for monarchy reform.
The protest co-leaders have been charged with lese majeste and one by one they filed into detention cells in Bangkok Remand Prison after having been indicted by prosecutors.
Although most have been allowed out on bail following several futile attempts to secure release, the sources felt the protests without their leadership for months failed to enthuse their supporters and the leaders now face the real risk of being put back in detention if they renew the demonstrations.
The Criminal Court has imposed strict bail conditions; if the co-leaders speak ill of the monarchy or engage in violent protests, their freedom will be cut short.
As the youth-led protests were weakening, a new crop of anti-government elements came to the fore early last month with Mr Jatuporn, who had been absent from the rally scene for years, at the helm.
Several Jatuporn-led rallies were underway over the course of several days before the third deadly outbreak of Covid-19 halted them. The rallies promised to be inclusive and, as some observers have put it, more mature than the youth-led protests. The rallies' goal, seeking to oust the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration on the accusation of mishandling the country's affairs, was also understood to be more realistic and practical to achieve.
The sources said the Jatuporn-led rallies might come across as an attempt to re-invent the anti-government protests by plugging loopholes that existed in the youth-led movement, by switching the focus from monarchy reform to Gen Prayut's ouster, and keeping the momentum of the street protests going.
The youth or Jatuporn-led protests, although lying dormant for the time being, are waiting to spring back to action at the first sign of the third wave of the Covid-19 onslaught ebbing.
The protests will bear down hard on the government which, according to opponents, has gone from hero for overcoming the first two outbreaks to zero for apparently underestimating the extent of the current outbreak which has claimed hundreds of lives.
The government's lifeline hinges significantly on its speediness in containing the outbreak and rolling out vaccines. The crux of criticism has moved from preparing enough field hospital beds for those suffering mild and little symptoms, to the bottleneck in distributing jabs.
The sources said the political odds do not appear promising for the government. The opposition parties and the critics will demand it takes responsibility for the Covid-19 casualties after the outbreak is brought under control.
The pressure from all sides, including the businesses that have been bruised and battered by the pandemic for more than a year and the dwindling workforce, is likely to leave the government in a very tight spot, possibly prompting a call for a snap election before the end of the year.
In the meantime, the Pheu Thai Party is believed to be busy handing out community assistance to its constituents while Thaksin was appealing to people across age brackets by continuing to give lectures on how the Covid-19 could be handled better. Any positive impression people have of him is certain to rub off on Pheu Thai, the party supporters have come to associate Thaksin with, which would also bode well for the main opposition party in the next election.
The coast is clear for Pheu Thai to be reorganised and prepped for a potentially looming election by the party faithful who did not see eye to eye with Khunying Sudarat, the party's former chief strategist, and who were roped in for the task after she parted ways with the party.
Sutin: 'New loan not urgent'
Bracing for a budget brawl
When parliament convenes later this month to examine the annual budget bill for fiscal 2022, the government should brace itself for a tumultuous session, according to political observers.
The first reading of the budget plan, initially scheduled to take place from May 31 to June 2, comes as the government struggles to contain the latest wave of Covid-19 infections.
According to political observers, the planned debate is expected to be driven by the cabinet's recent approval of a draft executive decree on fresh borrowing of 700 billion baht to revitalise the pandemic-hit economy.
Under the decree, about 30 billion baht will be earmarked for the procurement of medical supplies, vaccines, research and the renovation of hospitals.
The bigger chunk will be used to revive the coronavirus-battered economy as well as fund schemes to help people and entrepreneurs affected by the third wave and those who still haven't found their feet after the first two outbreaks.
The government has yet to formally address the fresh borrowing issue and it is expected to do so when the loan decree is published in the Royal Gazette. After all, the cabinet meeting on the planned borrowing this week was supposed to be secret.
In April last year, the cabinet approved the 1-trillion-baht royal decree on borrowing to alleviate economic and social blows brought by the first wave.
It is reported that some 16.5 billion is left of the initial borrowing and is inadequate to salvage people's livelihoods and put the economy back on track as the current, third outbreak is far more severe than the two previous rounds.
Moreover, the 2022 fiscal budget will take at least three months to clear parliament before it kicks in in October which marks the start of the new fiscal year.
However, critics are worried about the debt the country is accumulating.
With the new loan, public debt at the end of September is estimated at 9.38 trillion baht, or 58.6% of GDP which is close to the fiscal sustainability framework ceiling of 60%.
Chief opposition whip Sutin Klungsang is concerned that the 700-billion-baht borrowing will push the country beyond what it can handle and that the public debt-to-GDP ratio of 58.6% could cause a financial panic.
Mr Sutin, deputy leader of the main opposition Pheu Thai Party, doubts that the Covid-10 pandemic will go away anytime soon and this will not be the last time the government will be forced to seek more loans to fund economic and social rehabilitation schemes.
In his view, more borrowing is also likely next year, given that the collection of tax revenue is falling short of the target.
In the first half of the fiscal year 2021 (October 2020-March 2021), the Revenue Department collected tax revenue worth 735 billion baht, 9.4% below target and 8.7% lower than in the same period in the previous fiscal year.
In the fiscal year 2020 ending last September, the department collected total tax revenues of 1.83 trillion baht, falling short of its target by 13.4%.
Mr Sutin argues that the 700-billion-baht decree is not as urgent as the government wants it to appear. The 1-trillion-baht decree on borrowing approved in April last year turned out to be not so urgent either, he points out.
"The loan isn't used up, so it means the 1-trillion-baht decree wasn't really urgent," he was quoted as saying.
The opposition MP suggests that the government split the 700-billion-baht loan into one executive decree authorised by the cabinet and six loan bills to be scrutinised by parliament.
The six bills should be put up for review by parliament for greater transparency and the vetting process should be completed in three months in time for the 2022 fiscal year, the Pheu Thai MP said.
According to political observers, the borrowing is deemed necessary to respond to the pandemic and cover losses for businesses that have either closed or been forced to scale back operations as a result of Covid-19 control measures.
However, it is the government's job to explain properly to the public, given the enormity of public debt, what the borrowing scheme will bring and whether the risks associated with it are too much for the administration to bear.