From putsch to politician

From putsch to politician

ABOUT POLITICS: Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha's prolonged term as prime minister may see him become what he had first sought to avoid v Attempts by Pheu Thai to lure young voters from the MFP are half-hearted and likely to fall short, observers say

Prayut: Has stuck around
Prayut: Has stuck around

Since becoming prime minister following the 2014 coup, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha's leadership has evolved quite distinctly, according to a political source.

The evolution has been pronounced and is characterised, fittingly, by the Thai sayings: "The higher one goes, the more chilling it gets" and "It's not easy to dismount a tiger after you've been riding on one."

Back in May 2014 when the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) headed by Gen Prayut seized power from the Pheu Thai Party-led administration, many anticipated the new occupants of the corridors of power would not stay for very long.

They thought the military-dominated government would get on with the business of breaking the political and constitutional deadlock that threatened to leave the country in a power vacuum and then transition the country back to civilian rule.

However, critics had warned the military or its influence would stick around for the long haul.

Gen Prayut, the army chief at the time of the coup, declared he was not running the country as a politician. The country was slowly morphing into an increasingly bureaucratic state as the regime believed state officials could do better and "cleaner" jobs in government than politicians and entrusted many incumbent and former civil servants to several key posts in the cabinet.

The politicians, in the meantime, were confined to the "freezer" and played no role in the administration.

Gen Prayut, according to the expert, was being seen as a non-politician prime minister who was firmly in charge of the national administration and that he was sinking his roots of power ever deeper.

At the same time, the expert pointed out that Gen Prayut had learned from the mistakes of previous coups by progressively phasing out some of the military men from active political posts and cabinet positions to ease pressure from an international community unhappy with the NCPO's grip on power.

Moving out the men in uniform, ironically, reinforced some critics' belief that Gen Prayut was planning to cling to power for a long time to come. The civilian replacements were accused of retaining a strong connection with the military.

As Gen Prayut gained experience as prime minister, he might have come to terms with the fact that the full function of a government cannot be achieved without politicians and that there was a limit to how long he could delay a general election, according to the expert.

At the same time, the distance the prime minister kept with politicians narrowed as the 2019 general election, the first since the 2014 coup, got closer.

Electioneering was second nature to former MPs, most of whom had up until 2019 were in the political wilderness.

Representative politics then came roaring back with the strongmen of the now-defunct NCPO finding alignment with the newly formed Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), which cobbled together breakaway factions mainly from Pheu Thai.

The PPRP was being branded a party cloaked in green fatigues although its founding leader was a civilian, Uttama Savanayana.

In the election, the PPRP captured 116 seats, both constituency and party-list, emerging second after Pheu Thai which had 136 constituency MPs and none from the list.

Despite coming second, the PPRP was able to form a government after Gen Prayut was elected prime minister in parliament.

The critics charged that the NCPO-appointed Senate, who co-elected the prime minister with the MPs, was another reminder that Gen Prayut was not planning to call it quits anytime soon.

The expert said more people were beginning to wonder when the two most powerful figures, Gen Prayut and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, would take the helm of the PPRP.

An early sign of that came when an internal revolt which subsequently led to Mr Uttama stepping down as PPRP leader, along with three others in the so-called Four Boys group.

Leadership of the ruling party was then handed to Gen Prawit who was the party chief strategist at the time in an uncontested race.

Gen Prayut was also now edging close to fully transforming into a politician, something he appeared to have dreaded doing early on in his tenure. He has been the subject of intense speculation that he would succeed Gen Prawit, with whom he has been bound by fraternal ties since their army days.

Gen Prayut heading the PPRP could give the ruling party a boost in reinventing its itself ahead of the next election which could be held sometime next year. The expert added Gen Prayut remains a pull factor for sizeable crowds of voters.

But he noted that Gen Prayut may have been galvanised into vying for the PPRP leadership out of vengeance.

PPRP secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow was accused of turning against Gen Prayut by plotting to unseat him as premier in the last censure debate.

Gen Prayut may now be seriously looking to clean the PPRP's decks by taking over the PPRP, ditching Capt Thamanat and overhauling the ruling party. In the process, he can adopt the party as his own and lead it into the election battle.

Applying the woo factor

The Pheu Thai Party has been causing quite a ruckus since its Oct 28 general assembly in Khon Kaen which saw Paethongtan Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of fugitive ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, named as its chief adviser on participation and innovation.

It is widely believed that Ms Paethongtan's appointment is to help the main opposition party connect with young voters and woo them away from its political ally, the Move Forward Party (MFP).

Paethongtan: Morale booster

At 35 and with a degree in political science from Chulalongkorn University, she is being touted as a potential prime ministerial candidate for the party.

However, several observers believe Ms Paethongtan's relatively young age alone is not enough to bring the party the landslide victory it needs to return to power at the next general election.

Despite being politically active through her use of social media to make political comments, Ms Paethongtan needs to bring something more to the table, according to the observers.

She and the party are in need of policy platforms that strike a chord with young people who apparently seek drastic changes, especially reforms of certain laws they deem undermining the rule of law, they say.

Stithorn Thananithichote, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, is one of those who feel Thaksin's youngest daughter needs more than just her young age to win support and has a lot to prove and show she truly understands what young voters want.

In his opinion, Pheu Thai is still behind its political ally, the MFP, when it comes to addressing youngsters' calls for change.

Even if it turns out later that Ms Paethongtan is unable to draw support from young voters, her party role will not totally be in vain. At the very least, her presence in the party has boosted the morale of Pheu Thai members after seeing defections of core figures in the past year.

Having his daughter serve as a chief adviser ahead of the next general election, expected next year, signals Thaksin's intention to actively engage and restore party supporters' confidence, according to observers.

With Ms Paethongtan at the forefront, Pheu Thai supporters who might have doubts about the party's ability to return to power are expected to stay put, and those who have strayed will come back, they say.

"The public's view about Ms Paethongtan doesn't really matter. Whether or not she has potential is irrelevant. Party supporters know better than that. Sending his beloved daughter shows (Thaksin has) strong determination and a will to fight," said Mr Stithorn.

Ms Paethongtan is not the only change Pheu Thai has made following the party's leadership change in which Nan MP Cholnan Srikaew took over from Sompong Amornvivat.

The party has announced support for amendments to Sections 112, more commonly known as the lese majeste law, and 116, which pertains to sedition, of the Criminal Code. The move has caused quite a stir.

The announcement is seen as an about-turn considering the party's stance several years ago when then party leader Yongyuth Wichaidit insisted that amending the lese majeste law was not on the party's agenda.

In a statement endorsed by Chaikasem Nitisiri, the party's chief strategist and prime ministerial candidate in the previous election, the party announced it would ask parliament to discuss any amendments to the two sections if and when draft laws on rectifying the lese majeste and sedition laws are proposed.

According to the main opposition party, the sections were being enforced in a way that undermined the rule of law and harmed public trust in the justice system.

The party's statement even includes hashtag #mobOct312021, apparently referring to the Oct 31 anti-government protest at Ratchaprasong intersection headed by the youth-led Ratsadon group which called for the abolition of the lese majeste law.

It is believed that the party's public support for amendments is a facade meant to impress young voters.

However, some political observers are sceptical that Pheu Thai can attract and lure young voters away from the MFP which has advocated a much tougher stance on the two sections of the Criminal Code.

Given Thaksin's latest remark on the lese majeste law that it is "never a problem", Pheu Thai is expected to soften its stance on the issue and continue to alienate those seeking drastic changes.

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