The ruling Palang Pracharath Party was defeated by the main opposition Pheu Thai Party in yesterday's by-election for Constituency 9 in Bangkok, with scholars saying the outcome has reflected a decline in the ruling party's popularity and that of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha.
According to an unofficial result of the poll as of 8pm yesterday, Surachart Thienthong of Pheu Thai came top with 28,015 votes, ahead of Move Forward Party's Karunpol Thiansuwan (19,290), Atavit Suwannapakdee of the Kla Party (18,505) and the PPRP's Saralrasmi Jenjaka (7,720).
Commenting on the unofficial result, Somchai Srisutthiyakorn, a former election commissioner and director of Rangsit University's centre for political research and development, said if the PPRP loses the by-election, it may have to reconsider whether to rely on the reputation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to woo voter support in the next general election.
"The PPRP's defeat is the result of its internal conflict and the image of Sira [Jenjaka]. The party must improve things to win back public recognition," Mr Somchai said.
Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, a lecturer at Chulalongkorn University's political science faculty, said the PPRP's defeat reflects a decline in Gen Prayut's popularity.
Lately, the prime minister appeared to have lacked decisiveness in tackling problems, Mr Chaiyan said, adding the PPRP's popularity will suffer if it still nominates Gen Prayut as a candidate for the same role at the next election.
Mr Chaiyan said the PPRP made a wrong decision in fielding Mr Sira's wife in the by-election."This was a slight to Bangkok residents."
The by-election was called after Mr Sira was disqualified by the Constitutional Court. It ruled him ineligible to contest the previous 2019 election due to a fraud conviction handed down by the Pathumwan District Court in 1995 along with an eight-month jail term.
His wife, Saralrasmi Jenjaka, put up by the PPRP to defend the seat formerly held by her husband, was seen as having a slim chance despite engaging PPRP leader and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon in the lead-up.
The by-election for Constituency 9, which covers Laksi district and parts of neighbouring Chatuchak district, was the first by-election in Bangkok, and the ninth during the tenure of the present government.
Of the total nine by-elections so far, candidates from government parties won seven, the now-dissolved opposition Future Forward Party secured one victory and the opposition Pheu Thai one victory (yesterday's result).
However, the Jan 16 by-elections in Songkhla and Chumphon saw candidates from the Democrat Party, part of the coalition government, beat candidates from the PPRP.
Analysts said that yesterday's election had little bearing on the government's stability, though the poll took place against a backdrop of the government struggling with an array of problems including the Covid-19 pandemic, the rising cost of living and internal rifts within the ruling party.
Other events in the political calendar, particularly the Bangkok governor election expected this year, will also serve to gauge the popularity of the government which completes its four-year term in March next year, analysts said. The Office of the Election Commission said 167,649 people were eligible to vote in the constituency, which has 280 polling units.
Speaking before the unofficial result was announced, Ms Saralsasmi said she was confident that she would win the poll, with support coming mostly from elderly voters.