The glory days of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) may be behind it as it has lost friends and attracted foes, according to political sources.
When it was founded ahead of the 2019 general election, critics had a field day calling it names. Among them was a description of a loosely cobbled-together vehicle prone to disintegration, which was built to cement Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's hold on power and secure his return as prime minister.
Two camps were behind the party -- the Sam Mitr (Three Allies) and the faction controlled by Capt Thamanat Prompow, who fell from grace after Gen Prayut fired him as a deputy agriculture minister for trying to stage a mutiny against him in last year's censure debate.
The Sam Mitr group was co-founded by Somsak Thepsuthin, Suriya Jungrungreangkit and also reportedly by Somkid Jatusripitak, a former deputy prime minister and former finance minister. However, Mr Somkid had flatly denied being the third pillar of the group.
From that alliance an offshoot called See Gumarn (Four Boys) was born, which counted some key political luminaries among its ranks such as former finance minister Uttama Savanayana, former energy minister Sontirat Sontijirawong, former higher education, science and innovations minister Suvit Maesincee and former prime minister's office minister, Kobsak Pootrakul.
These See Gumarn stalwarts occupied the positions of power in the PPRP with Mr Uttama serving as party leader and Mr Sontirat as secretary-general. The other two also landed ministerial posts during the faction's heyday.
The movers and shakers of Sam Mitr, which was closely aligned to See Gumarn, were also allocated cabinet portfolios -- Mr Somsak as justice minister and Mr Suriya as industry minister.
Lurking in the background were two dozen members of the Thamanat faction, who had little influence in running the party which, prior to the government's formation, manoeuvred to muster the support of medium-sized and micro-parties to form a coalition with a razor-thin majority in parliament.
Soon, by-election triumphs and MP defections added to the coalition's tally, enabling the government to solidify itself in the House of Representatives.
Observers said discontent in the ruling party began brewing after See Gumarn was viewed as having had a grip on power within the PPRP for far too long.
There were calls for a changing of the guard. Pressure piled on Mr Uttama to convene a party assembly for a ballot to select new executives. Mr Uttama quickly realised the meeting would seal his and the other See Gumarn members' fate in the PPRP.
Mr Uttama and Mr Sontirat subsequently resigned rather than be ousted from their party. They also quit the cabinet in 2020 due to the internal conflict within the ruling party.
Mr Somkid, who was deputy prime minister at the time, also stepped down from the government. He was looked up to by the group as its mentor.
With the removal of See Gumarn, the internal power pendulum swung to the Thamanat faction which now dominated the executive board and rallied party members behind Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon as the new party leader and Capt Thamanat as secretary-general. Capt Thamanat came across as Gen Prawit's trusted lieutenant and his right-hand man.
Before long, displeasure within the PPRP grew against Gen Prayut and Interior Minister Gen Anupong Paojinda. Even though the two generals had maintained firm fraternal ties harking back to their days as young soldiers with Gen Prawit, party members were less than happy that Gen Prayut and Gen Anupong seemed aloof and not too keen on "taking care" of them.
This was reported to be the trigger that saw tensions between some PPRP politicians and Gen Prayut reach boiling point. The Thamanat faction was accused of teaming up with a few micro-parties to engineer Gen Prayut's overthrow by handing him a vote of no-confidence in the censure debate in early September last year.
Gen Prayut managed to survive with the second-lowest number of confidence votes. It was reported that heavy lobbying had to be conducted to prevent Gen Prayut being defeated in the vote. Capt Thamanat paid the price for the foiled mutiny. He was sacked as deputy agriculture minister.
The biggest upheaval within the PPRP came on Jan 22 when it announced it had booted out the entire Thamanat faction, including Capt Thamanat.
Paiboon Nititawan said the executive board decided on Jan 19 to expel Capt Thamanat and 20 MPs under his control after he demanded changes.
However, some observers believe strings were pulled to have the board expel the faction. The "rebels" would not have wanted to resign because they would lose the chance of remaining as MPs whereas expulsion would allow them to find a new party within 30 days and retain their MP status.
Now that the group has formally applied to join the Setthakij Thai Party (Thai Economic Party), it might try to exact revenge by turning on Gen Prayut and the government. If they decide to do so, the government will have at least 21 votes less to pass legislation. In the event of a censure debate, which is what the opposition is looking to file in the coming days, the government will be standing on very shaky ground, according to the observers.
The writing's on the wall
The defeat in the Jan 30 by-election in Bangkok is a sign that the political fortunes of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha are waning, according to observers.
Prayut: Couldn't sway voters
It was the PPRP's third election loss in a row. The party failed to capture two House seats in Chumphon's Constituency 1 and Songkhla's Constituency 6 in by-elections held on Jan 16. Its coalition partner, the Democrat Party, successfully fended off challenges there.
In Bangkok's Constituency 9, the PPRP failed to hold the seat and lost to Pheu Thai candidate Surachart Thienthong who raked in 29,416 votes.
While observers did not expect a victory for the ruling party, the outcome was shocking.
The PPRP fielded Saralrasmi Jenjaka to defend the seat previously held by her husband, Sira, who was stripped of his MP status by the Constitutional Court. According to the court, Sira was ineligible to run in the 2019 election due to a 1995 fraud conviction.
Ms Saralrasmi managed to capture around 7,900 votes in the constituency which covers Laksi district and parts of Chatuchak district. The PPRP lost by 27,000 votes -- a sharp turnaround when compared with the result of the 2019 general election in which Sira received more than 33,000 votes.
Political observers see the result as really bad news for the PPRP and the prime minister who was used by the party in the latter stage of the election campaign to woo voters.
The defeat, they say, indicates that Gen Prayut's popularity was not enough to pull the PPRP through, or the premier himself is suffering a decline in popularity, or both.
Some observers even consider the outcome as a defeat for the pro-Prayut camp, pointing to combined votes by the opposition Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties.
Move Forward's Karunpol Thiansuwan came second in the poll with 20,316 while Atavit Suwannapakdee of the Kla Party finished third with 20,047 votes. Ms Saralrasmi came in a distant fourth with 7,906 votes.
Known as the anti-Prayut camp, Pheu Thai and the MFP had almost 50,000 votes between them while the pro-Prayut bloc garnered around 34,000. The latter comprises the PPRP, the Kla Party and the Thai Pakdee Party as they had pledged support for Gen Prayut.
The Pheu Thai Party was also quick to cash in on the victory. Its leader, Dr Cholnan Srikaew, said the result indicates how disappointed voters were by the Prayut administration's policies and urged the premier to dissolve the House.
Some observers also made an observation about "disappearing" voters in the Jan 30 by-election, with the turnout being about 53%, compared with 75% in the 2019 poll.
They took these "missing" voters as a snub to the PPRP for fielding Ms Saralrasmi whom they saw as nothing more than a proxy for her husband and for the party's internal bickering over the past several months.
According to the observers, although the contest was held in one constituency, voter sentiment cannot be ignored by the PPRP and Gen Prayut will need to help steady the ship to retain its supporters.
The government has about one year left in office, not to mention the Bangkok governor election likely to take place in a few months, and it cannot let its popularity slide further.
Veteran politician Thaworn Senneam, who announced support for the Thai Pakdee Party, agrees that the result indicates the waning popularity of Gen Prayut and voters' disapproval of the PPRP's factionalism and infighting.
According to the former Democrat MP, there are 11 factions in the ruling party with Gen Prayut believed to command the support of 38 MPs, the largest group in the party.
The second-largest was said to be the one led by former party secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow, who wrote: "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" on social media after Pheu Thai won the by-election. The group was recently expelled from the party. It was reported Capt Thamanat was covertly telling Gen Prayut he was ready to openly fight the prime minister.
Considering how factionalised the PPRP is, Mr Thaworn believes the PPRP is as good as a broken party.