Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon has, without doubt, been indispensable to the government.
In fact, he has been the tie that binds and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will come to appreciate his brother-in-arm's role in having kept the administration intact when the opposition sets the no-confidence debate rolling in May.
For a while, the government's survival was under threat from a deepening crack within the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP). The rift came to a head when Capt Thamanat Prompow, the former PPRP secretary-general, and 20 other MPs were booted out of the ruling party for stirring up trouble by demanding an overhaul of its executive board in what was billed as the party's biggest power grab bid yet.
This time, though, the sheer number of MPs shown the door has left the government standing on shaky ground. It will be walking a tightrope in the next censure debate, especially since the purged MPs have defected to the Setthakij Thai Party. They are expected to return with a vengeance.
However, three of the purged MPs are reportedly seeking to rejoin the PPRP while the remainder have yet to reach a consensus on whether to support the government in the censure motion expected in May.
Observers agreed Capt Thamanat, who led the purged MPs to Setthakij Thai, was expected to harbour a huge grudge against the PPRP for kicking him and the others out.
Last week, he insisted Setthakij Thai would be on the people's side and pledged to support the government if it had the public interest at heart.
However, his remarks sounded more like a veiled warning to the PPRP that he was ready to go after it for every single misstep.
It was reported Capt Thamanat never forgets a slight. He bore the full force of Gen Prayut's wrath following the censure debate in September last year after reportedly trying to gather support among some small parties to try and oust Gen Prayut by voting against him in the no-confidence motion.
In reply, Gen Prayut did not waste much time in firing Capt Thamanat as deputy agriculture minister.
Capt Thamanat, according to observers, instantly became a thorn in Gen Prayut's side. The MP expulsion came as the last straw for Capt Thamanat.
All the while, however, Gen Prawit refused to acknowledge the breakdown in ties between Gen Prayut and Capt Thamanat who at times had appeared to have won over the prime minister with his ability to "deliver".
Capt Thamanat was credited with the PPRP's early success in securing seats in by-elections in the South, edging out candidates fielded by the Democrat Party in their own backyard.
The observers said it would not have been in the least surprising if Gen Prawit was inclined to defend Capt Thamanat to the prime minister in the past or help his political career.
However, many might have thought that with Capt Thamanat and the other purged MPs out of the picture, Gen Prawit would give them a wide berth.
Gen Prawit has reiterated time and again that Setthakij Thai still backs the government and is an ally of the PPRP.
However, Gen Wit Devahastin na Ayudhya, the former chairman of the PPRP's strategic committee who was recently elected to lead Setthakij Thai, remained non-committal over whether the party would support the government.
Despite the not-so-amicable way they parted company, Gen Wit insisted he still holds Gen Prawit in high esteem.
"We have been on good terms for decades. He is like my brother. Setthakij Thai remains an ally which will continue to work with Gen Prawit," Gen Wit said.
Reading between the lines, the observers said Gen Wit may have been tempted to say that without Gen Prawit in the government, Setthakij Thai might choose to attack the government and turn against it in parliament.
That said, the observers also thought Gen Prayut cannot afford to cast aside Setthakij Thai if he wants the administration to keep its head above water to serve out its full term until March next year.
After all, one of the few channels of contact the government has with Setthakij Thai is through Gen Prawit.
PM post out of reach?
Paetongtarn Shinawatra's recent rise in the main opposition Pheu Thai Party has fuelled speculation that she is preparing to vie to become the next prime minister. But analysts believe her path to Government House is not strewn with roses.
While the 35-year-old daughter of fugitive ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra might easily win the hearts of Pheu Thai supporters as the Shinawatra family still resonates with voters in parts of the North and Northeast, she lacks political experience.
Moreover, being nominated for the post without it while having strong connections with Thaksin means she will be an easy target for critics who believe her only mission is to end his self-imposed exile.
Ms Paetongtarn appears to be aware of her limitations. When asked if she harbours prime ministerial ambitions in one media interview, she replied: "I want to gain more experience."
However, if she intends to follow in the footsteps of her father and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, who is also in exile, analysts say Pheu Thai will have to register a landslide victory in order to see Ms Paetongtarn elected as the next prime minister, which is an uphill struggle despite the constitutional changes.
Pundits fully agree the two-ballot system will benefit major political parties like Pheu Thai. But there is no guarantee the country will adopt it in the next poll even though the two election-related organic laws are being amended to reflect the charter revision.
The changes involve the use of two ballots -- one for the constituency system and the other for the party-list system -- and the new composition of the House which will see the number of constituency seats increase from 350 to 400 and the number of party-list seats reduced from 150 to 100.
Rumours are doing the rounds that a plot is afoot to have one of the two laws voted down to initiate a fresh amendment bid aimed at keeping the one-ballot system and the calculation method of party-list seats used in the 2019 general election.
If the single ballot stays in the next election, observers agree Pheu Thai's chance of winning overwhelming support is dimmed.
While the party did win the largest number of House seats in the previous poll, it did not qualify to receive any party-list seats and party heavyweights including its prime ministerial candidates, who were party-list candidates, did not make it into the House.
Not winning a party-list seat is considered a setback for any political party seeking to secure parliament's support for its prime ministerial candidate, according to observers.
And even if the two amended organic laws clear parliament and are enacted for the next election, Ms Paetongtarn still has another political hurdle to clear -- the military regime-appointed Senate, according to observers.
Under the charter, the 250-member Senate joins MPs in voting for the prime minister. Any charter amendment bills seeking to strip senators of this power have been shot down.
It is believed that Ms Paetongtarn, widely seen as Thaksin's political proxy, will not get a single vote from senators. Pheu Thai will have to secure support from 376 MPs when the election for a new prime minister is called.
But that is out of the question in the current climate and Pheu Thai is predicted to capture 200 seats from constituency and party-list systems due to the rise of the Move Forward Party (MFP).
According to observers, Pheu Thai's chief partner in the opposition bloc is gaining popularity and an ally that could become a thorn in its side when it comes to running in an election.
MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat is leading the race for the post of prime minister in an opinion survey by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida Poll) released last Sunday.
The poll showed 13.4% of respondents backed the MFP leader, compared with 12.5% given to Ms Paetongtarn. Mr Pita also outpolled Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha whose popularity plummeted to 12.7% from the 16.9% he received in December.