Kinship model puzzles

Kinship model puzzles

ABOUT POLITICS: Pheu Thai's 'family' concept to achieve its election landslide dream has left some observers scratching their heads | A beleaguered PPRP is looking to revive its flagging fortunes and whip up support through a national roadshow

Paetongtarn: A matriarchal figure?
Paetongtarn: A matriarchal figure?

Much fanfare surrounded a visit two weeks ago by the Pheu Thai Party which staged a "family tour" to Si Sa Ket, one of its strongest bastions in the Northeast.

The so-called Pheu Thai "family" of MPs and top executives were swamped by hordes of supporters dressed in red to greet them at the airport in neighbouring Ubon Ratchathani.

However, some critics were struggling to wrap their heads around the main opposition party's "family" concept to rally the electoral support necessary to realise its ambitious goal to win the next election by a landslide.

The concept itself would ring hollow without one person acting as head of the family.

The red-clad crowds at Ubon Ratchathani airport could not contain their excitement at the sight of Paetongtarn Shinawatra stepping off the plane.

She was the main focus of the trip with Pheu Thai's top executives -- including party leader Dr Cholnan Srikaew -- in tow.

Ms Paetongtarn is the latest Shinawatra clan member thrust into the political spotlight. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, and aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, both served as prime ministers and were subsequently toppled in military coups. Both also fled the country after being convicted of charges connected to their tenures as premiers.

Ms Paetongtarn, who heads Pheu Thai's Inclusion and Innovation Adviser Committee and is informally dubbed as the matriarch of the party "family" could be the third Shinawatra (not counting Somchai Wongsawat, husband of Thaksin's other sister, Yaowapa) to become premier if Pheu Thai swept the next polls. This is provided that Ms Paetongtarn agrees to drop her name in the hat as a prime ministerial contender.

One political observer was wondering what "family" was being referred to -- the party or the Shinawatras.

The observer noted that it was ingenious to employ a family concept to rebuild support for the party and send out the message of inclusiveness as it was apparently a tactical move to get the red shirts, who were zealous Pheu Thai supporters mostly living in the provinces, back on board.

The red shirts were credited with pushing Pheu Thai past the finishing line in the 2019 general election, beating the ruling Palang Pracharath Party touted as the hottest political property at the time.

But despite Pheu Thai garnering 136 MPs, the PPRP with 116 eventually consolidated other parties, obtained a parliamentary majority and set up a government.

Pheu Thai is now determined to repeat the election success in the next polls although winning for winning's sake is not enough. The party insists it must win decisively by capturing at least 250 of the 500 seats up for grabs.

To retain the red-shirt support base, the party needs a magnet and who better to pull in the crowds than Nattawut Saikuar, a co-leader of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) which spearheads the red-shirt movement.

Pheu Thai has named Mr Nattawut director of the Pheu Thai Family. In addition to strengthening red-shirt support, Mr Nattawut may also come in handy in bridging a gap between Pheu Thai and a younger generation of voters, a vast pool of whom identify closely with the fellow opposition, Move Forward Party (MFP).

For a while, Mr Nattawut headed anti-government protests alongside the youth-led Ratsadorn street rallies in Bangkok last year. He forged the "pro-democracy" alliance with the mostly young protesters although his and the youth-led protest groups did not completely blend in.

Still, according to the observer, Mr Nattawut came across as more hands-on and approachable to the young politically-conscious crowds than Ms Paetongtarn, who has been noted for her absence in sustained political activism even when the National Council for Peace and Order toppled the Pheu Thai-led administration in 2014.

But the observer has predicted an uphill battle ahead for Pheu Thai even with Ms Paetongtarn and Mr Nattawut at the forefront.

For starters, the target of 250 seats means garnering an additional 120 MPs in the next polls. Even if the party is helped by party-list seats, it would still need many MPs from outside its traditional strongholds.

Pheu Thai might also have to compete with the MFP for young voters, although the party is thought to have far less appeal.

The observer said Mr Nattawut's latest role in Pheu Thai could sow the seeds for an internal rift. His role in the party would only grow as the next election nears and some Pheu Thai executives might feel overlooked, upstaged and marginalised.

Ruling party has work cut out

Opinion polls did quite a good job in the May 22 gubernatorial election, predicting independent candidate Chadchart Sittipunt to easily win the Bangkok race.

Prawit: Seeks to boost morale

So there was a good reason for some observers to think the latest survey by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) should have the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and its supporters concerned.

In the phone survey conducted from June 20-23 among 2,500 voters, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was the top choice for prime minister.

Ms Paetongtarn, the leader of the Pheu Thai Family project, had the support of 25.2% of respondents, followed by Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat with 13.2%. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha trailed behind with just 11.6%, while 18.6% of respondents said they did not find anyone suitable.

In the same poll, the main opposition Pheu Thai Party was named the most favoured party among poll participants garnering 36% of support with its ally the MFP coming second with 18%.

The ruling PPRP, which pledged unwavering support for Gen Prayut if he wished to seek another term as prime minister, came third with just 7%.

Some observers attributed the soaring popularity of Ms Paetongtarn and Pheu Thai to a campaign that was launched with the clear goal of achieving a landslide victory in the next election.

The main opposition party stepped this campaign up a notch recently by appointing former red-shirt leader Nattawut Saikuar as director of the Pheu Thai Family project.

Meanwhile, the ruling PPRP has been in disarray due to disunity that saw dozens of MPs jump ship with the biggest defection led by former party secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow.

PPRP preparations for the next poll have also taken a knock by its losses in by-elections in Chumphon, Songkhla and Bangkok and its poor performance in the May 22 Bangkok city council elections.

An absence of political initiatives gave rise to rumours that some key figures had lost the heart to fight under the party's banner and were waiting for the right moment to leave.

Aware that this talk could affect morale among party members, PPRP leader Prawit Wongsuwon reportedly sprang into action to motivate them.

Gen Prawit was said to have divided the country into several zones and assigned key party figures to each of them.

The central region was split into two sub-zones -- the eastern and western -- to be supervised by Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin, Digital Economy and Society Minister Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn, Prime Minister's Office Minister Anucha Nakasai, and Education Minister Trinuch Thienthong.

The northeastern region was split into a lower part and upper part to be supervised by former chief government whip Wirach Ratanasate, former 2nd Army commander Gen Thanya Kiatisarn, Industry Minister Suriya Juengrungruangkit and former national police chief Chakthip Chaijinda.

In the northern region, Gen Prawit has entrusted the work to Deputy Finance Minister Santi Promphat and chief government whip Nirote Sunthornlekha.

The southern part was allocated to Justice Minister and the party's strategic committee chief, Somsak Thepsutin, who has lately developed a close working relationship with party MPs in the South.

As for Bangkok, Gen Prawit was said to have approached former Bangkok governor Aswin Kwanmuang and former PPRP member Sakoltee Phattiyaku for the task. While the pair have yet to officially join the party, Gen Prawit would supervise the party's work in the capital with help from Narumon Pinyosinwat, head of the party's policy committee.

What should be expected after this is a PPRP roadshow to draw public support in the provinces and 10 major events are reportedly being planned with Gen Prawit expected to attend all of them.

The roadshow is scheduled to kick off on July 10 in Chon Buri and is expected to draw at least 10,000 people. According to observers, if it turns out to be a success, it should give the party -- now seen as an election underdog -- a lift and help turn its fortunes around.

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