For some time, Pheu Thai had been so excited about the prospect of scoring a landslide victory in the next election that it might not have contemplated what could go wrong.
Pirapan: May lead party backing PM
Looking around parliament, the main opposition party exuded confidence in the notion that no other party was attracting voters like it was, according to observers.
Its archrival, the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), has been left fragmented by infighting which saw many stalwarts exit the party. While the government is fumbling over how to repair an economy in tatters, Pheu Thai every now and again leans over and offers its two cents on what could have been done to mitigate the energy crisis and surging consumer prices, which compound the economic plight of people reeling from two years of Covid-19.
Critics have charged that it is easier to verbalise a way out than to implement it. However, floating what sounds like a solution can ignite a glimmer of hope for people desperate to get out of hardship. This may drive some swing voters and the undecided to opt for Pheu Thai, believing it has the ability to pull them from the quagmire.
The observers said Pheu Thai may have figured no other party, including the PPRP, was a bigger magnet as they offered nothing new in terms of how to fix the troubled economy or present hope.
But hope alone cannot catapult Pheu Thai to a resounding victory in the next polls. The charter amendment earlier this year, which reverted the election method to dual voting ballots, was counted on by the party to give it an electoral boost since it involves fixing the vote calculation which works in its favour.
The system of dual ballots, one for electing an MP and the other for a party, calls for the 100 party-list MP seats at stake to be divided up among winning parties. It was initially settled by Pheu Thai, the PPRP and the Democrat Party that 100 would be used to calculate the seats.
That immediately raised the ire of small parties which demanded that 500 be adopted instead, strongly arguing that 100 would be akin to locking them out of parliament.
It was determined that parties would need around 70,000 votes to win a list seat under the model where 500 was used to divide voter turnout. However, if it were 100, a party would have to capture at least 350,000 votes, which would be an impossible feat for most small parties with limited resources.
The House committee scrutinising amendments to the organic law on the election of MPs held the calculation method in its hands. Small parties, the minority voices in deciding the method, finally had their big break when the scrutinised version of the amendment bill was put to a vote in the third and final reading on July 6.
A total of 354 MPs voted for 500 to calculate party-list seats while 160 voted for 100. Most of the 354 votes were from coalition parties -- Palang Pracharath, Bhumjaithai, the Democrats and six small partners.
The flip, a euphoric moment for small parties, was deeply disappointing for Pheu Thai.
Some analysts predicted small parties can squeeze their way into the list MP tally and make Pheu Thai's landslide victory much harder to achieve.
A landslide win is defined as winning at least 250 seats out of 500 up for grabs in both the constituency and list systems.
Pheu Thai had set its sights on winning at least 200 constituency seats. To reach its goal, it must also reap at least half the 100 list seats. But with list seats now easier to win, more parties, not necessarily members of the opposition bloc, may grab them.
An observer added that a plan, reportedly being mulled over by Pheu Thai, to establish a smaller off-shoot to capture list seats might prove insidiously dangerous. If Pheu Thai was caught doing so much as exerting even a tiny influence over the smaller party, it would break the law and face dissolution.
In the meantime, two small parties may be up and running to support the PPRP in the next poll. The Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party was founded by Seksakol Atthawong, a former aide to the prime minister, to back Prayut Chan-o-cha's return as premier if he wishes to do so.
Ruam Thai Sang Chart gained public attention early last year, after claims surfaced that it was set up as an alternative to the PPRP, should the ruling party encounter legal trouble. The party will meet early next month amid speculation that former Democrat Pirapan Salirathavibhaga will be named party leader.
The Palang Thai Chaichana Party will also meet next month to elect executives, with Gen Wit Devahastin na Ayudhya, former leader of the Setthakij Thai Party, expected to be chosen to head it.
What to do with Anupong?
The censure debate has passed but has left a tricky task for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as he tries to steer the government forward and complete its four-year term ending in March next year.
Anupong: 'No reason to be fearful'
Interior Minister, Gen Anupong Paojinda, his brother-in-arms who has been in the post for almost eight years, has rubbed a faction in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) up the wrong way, prompting it to seek his ouster.
Gen Anupong received the largest number of no-confidence votes among the 10 cabinet ministers grilled by the opposition along with Gen Prayut in last week's no-confidence debate.
Of the 212 no-confidence votes he got last Saturday, six were cast by PPRP MPs for Samut Prakan under the Pak Nam Group and a list-MP who saw it as the price Gen Anupong must pay for ignoring the needs of Samut Prakan people.
The interior minister stands accused of being unresponsiveness to their requests for development budgets. "We are always conscious of what we do," said Torsak Asvahame, one of the six MPs.
The group's stance comes amid rumours circulating ahead of the no-confidence debate that some PPRP members were lobbying for a changing of the guard at the Interior Ministry.
The ministry oversees provincial authorities and holds power over local administrative organisations, so controlling the ministry is widely believed to give election candidates an advantage.
With a general election less than a year away, the PPRP members prefer someone more approachable like their leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon to take over as interior minister so that they have a better chance of tapping into the ministry's vast resources in the run-up to the next polls.
It is widely believed there will be growing pressure on Gen Prayut to address the interior portfolio in the weeks to come. Before the censure vote, the premier insisted a cabinet shake-up was not on the cards. After the debate, he also ruled out a reshuffle for now.
Gen Prayut has resisted calls for a cabinet reshuffle since the ouster of Capt Thamanat Prompow and Narumon Pinyosinwat as deputy agriculture minister and deputy labour minister in September last year.
His government has managed to pass crucial legislation drafts including the first reading of the budget bill for the 2023 fiscal year and it is interesting to see how the prime minister will handle the issue.
According to observers, a cabinet reshuffle is the prime minister's sole power and Gen Prayut has done a good job of managing a political balancing act following the removal of Capt Thamanat.
His decision will depend on how he assesses the political situation and how he foresees his political future.
With the main opposition Pheu Thai Party pulling out all the stops to win a landslide victory at the next election, the call for change at the Interior Ministry may get some consideration.
However, some observers find it improbable that Gen Prayut will bow to the demand to replace Gen Anupong.
Although Gen Anupong is not as popular a politician as Gen Prawit, he is believed to have gained clout in the ministry and used its mechanisms to the advantage of the PPRP in the 2019 poll. Moreover, having served as interior minister for almost eight straight years since 2014, Gen Anupong must have gained a lot of trust and confidence from Gen Prayut.
Gen Anupong himself is unfazed by the prospect of losing the interior portfolio and feels no obligation to meet the six MPs to straighten the matter out with them.
"If there should be a cabinet shake-up, it is up to the prime minister to decide. There's no reason to fear. No matter what changes may be in store, the fellowship between the three 'Por' generals will never break," Gen Anupong was quoted as saying.
The three 'Por' generals refer to Gen Anupong, Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit who have held the main cabinet posts since the 2014 coup.
However, if a cabinet reshuffle is to take place, there is a possibility that the Pak Nam faction will be awarded a cabinet seat, given the two vacant seats left by Capt Thamanat and Ms Narumon, according to political observers.
Gen Prawit just gave the faction a glimmer of hope when he assured Samut Prakan residents on a visit early this week there would be a cabinet minister from Samut Prakan in a future reshuffle.