Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has finally made up his mind to join the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.
However, for a long while, the lingering uncertainty stemming from his indecision to declare his allegiance to any particular party ahead of next year's election may have done the Bhumjaithai Party a spectacular favour.
Gen Prayut has consistently indicated he would remain in politics despite calls from critics for him to step aside at the next polls tentatively scheduled for May 7.
He was heard telling constituents during one of his provincial tours recently that he would not wash his hands of politics as long as he has the support of the people.
His affirmation was made on the back of a growing fear among Gen Prayut's supporters that he might step back as a result of the Constitutional Court's ruling at the end of September that he had a maximum of two more years as prime minister.
That led to the theory of Gen Prayut returning as premier on condition that he is nominated by a party and wins the support of parliament, and spends half of the four-year term as head of government and then lets someone else from a coalition party take his place for the remainder of the term.
The theory had swirled and captured the imagination of several political watchers who thought there might be credence to it.
A political expert said the theory had been perpetuated by the indecision by Gen Prayut to spell out what party he had planned to align with as its prime ministerial candidate in the next polls.
The ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), on whose ticket Gen Prayut was nominated for prime minister after the 2019 election, had apparently been kept in the dark all this time. All the party could do was speculate and wish Gen Prayut would be more forthcoming about his political future. But the uncertainty about Gen Prayut joining the UTN diminished this week when Gen Prayut was reported to be looking to chair the UTN's "super board".
The party, also known as the Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party, is now seen as the one likely to nominate Gen Prayut as prime minister at the next election.
Gen Prayut will most likely assume the chairman's role of the super board, which will be made up of the party leader, deputy leaders and party secretary-general. The final decision on crucial matters will rest with the super board, according to a source.
The structure will effectively place Gen Prayut as shadow party leader or head of the UTN "family".
The prime minister's indecision had taken its toll on some MPs in the ruling party, who were pondering whether to stick with the PPRP or move elsewhere ahead of the next polls.
The deadline for switching parties is fast approaching. Unless the Election Commission postpones the May 7 election, MPs looking to jump ship must do so before Feb 7, assuming the term of the present House of Representatives runs its course. Election candidates must have joined their party at least 90 days before polling day.
In case of a House dissolution, the deadline for MPs to defect to another party is at least 30 days before election day.
For several MPs in the PPRP, having Gen Prayut as the party's prime ministerial candidate again could guarantee solid support from some sections of voters. But being kept in suspense by Gen Prayut as to what party he would opt for had simply gone on far too long for them.
Some could not wait around any longer and bolted to Bhumjaithai, a hot political property believed to have a shot at emerging as one of the three biggest parties after the next polls.
Close to 40 MPs have reportedly moved to Bhumjaithai and it is the PPRP that has bled most heavily from the defections.
It was reported 14 MPs from the ruling party switched to Bhumjaithai even at the expense of losing their MP status.
The source reckoned Gen Prayut would have made a difference had he stated outright whether he would pledge his allegiance to either the PPRP or the UTN earlier.
It might be possible that some MPs who want to exit the PPRP might have reconsidered defecting to the UTN, had Gen Prayut decided to stay as the party's prime ministerial candidate.
At this point, the UTN is thought to be the PPRP's closest ally. But if Gen Prayut had persisted with his indecision, more defectors from the PPRP could well have knocked on Bhumjaithai's door.
Bhumjaithai leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, has topped a recent Super Poll as the most favoured candidate for prime minister.
Some 50%, believed Mr Anutin would be able to help solve bread-and-butter issues affecting people's lives, while Gen Prayut came fourth in the poll with 17%, a sharp drop in his popularity.
A last throw of the dice?
After giving his political rivals as well as allies a head start in preparing for the next polls, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has made his move.
Pirapan: The PM's new secretary-general
The appointment of Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, leader of the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, as the prime minister's secretary-general, came amid speculation Gen Prayut would join the party and be nominated as its prime ministerial candidate.
The speculation ended yesterday when Gen Prayut confirmed he was.
Key figures in the UTN, also known as Ruam Thai Sang Chart, have pledged party support, but Gen Prayut had previously been elusive when it comes to discussing his political future.
Shortly before joining the UTN, Gen Prayut had said he was still mulling whether to join the party. Rumours circulated that he had applied for membership, according to observers.
There is a theory as to why Gen Prayut had not made a clear-cut decision, which is he was not fully confident about being elected PM under the UTN's banner and was trying to stay in power as long as possible.
For a while, Gen Prayut was the only potential prime ministerial candidate whose popularity was not tied to a political party. In the latest opinion survey by Nida Poll on the popularity of politicians and political parties, more than 10% of respondents rooted for him.
Gen Prayut's declaration of his allegiance to the UTN may have gauged his confidence in the party serving as a platform for him to carry on as prime minister. He had that confidence when the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) nominated him for PM in 2019, said Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida).
With the House of Representatives concluding its term in March, Gen Prayut knew he could not remain coy for long, according to Mr Phichai.
However, following Mr Pirapan's appointment and Gen Prayut's induction into the UTN, it is believed that from this moment on Gen Prayut and UTN moves will be in sync.
The post of prime minister's secretary-general is dubbed by some critics as being akin to a "No.2" prime minister who is speculated to work with important politicians from various parties.
It was left vacant by the resignation of Dissathat Hotrakit, who had served in the post since July 2019. Mr Dissathat has been named a prime minister's adviser.
Given Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam's recent remark that previous prime ministers had made such appointments from among their party's ranks, Mr Pirapan's appointment is widely seen as Gen Prayut moving towards the next chapter of his political career.
Following PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon's remark that Gen Prayut is no longer with the party, none of its MPs have announced they will follow Gen Prayut to a new party.
Key figures such as Justice Minister Somsak Thepsutin, Deputy Finance Minister Santi Promphat and DES Minister Chaiwut Thanakhamanusorn have stayed put, and the PPRP still commands about 80 MPs.
Even Labour Minister Suchart Chomklin, who declared his loyalty to Gen Prayut has been quiet lately. After stepping down as executive and director of the ruling party, Mr Suchart has made no further moves, with rumour spreading that he may switch to Bhumjaithai.
According to observers, if Gen Prayut is unable to persuade Mr Suchart to join him in moving to the UTN, he has no chance of attracting others. To date, the Bhumjaithai Party has done a far better job of luring MPs from political families, known in Thai as "Ban Yai" [Big House], into its fold.
Without Mr Suchart's group, the chances of the UTN winning constituency seats are in doubt, and the number of list seats the party can capture depends solely on Gen Prayut's popularity, according to observers.
Based on the Nida Poll findings, the UTN is likely to win about ten party-list seats, which is not enough to nominate a prime ministerial candidate to the House for a vote, assuming the party captures a few constituency MPs. The law requires a party to win 25 seats or more at the polls to nominate a prime minister.
Ahead of the elections, the UTN has to recruit as many MPs as possible and roll out policy platforms that speak to the voters to win the required seats. Persuading other parties to vote for Gen Prayut, who can only serve another two years as prime minister, is also a tricky task, according to observers.