The harsh reality has reared its ugly head for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha who may find his hopes for a third term as prime minister go up in smoke.
New seismic developments in politics do not bode well for Gen Prayut. But nothing could be as threatening to a third term than the much-feared disintegration of the "Three Por General" brotherhood -- binding together Gen Prayut, Deputy Prime Minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, who is also leader of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), and Interior Minister Anupong Paojinda -- which has held governments together for eight years.
Gen Prayut may remain resolute and stay the course to renew his premiership after the next election. However, an impression has been created of Gen Prayut working to carve his own niche and doing things on his own terms, even at the expense of "Three Por General" solidarity and stewardship which thrust him into the prime minister's post after the 2019 election, according to a political observer.
Gen Prayut has said it loud and clear that United Thai Nation (UTN) is the party he will be charting his political future with. By doing so, he has turned his back on the PPRP, which nominated him for prime minister and eventually secured him the premiership last time out.
Not that he has manufactured affection or attachment to the PPRP over the years. Rather, he has been rebuked even within the party's ranks for being aloof and treating it as a mere stepping stone for securing power.
The heavy speculation of the Three Por General clique falling apart has never gone away. In fact, it is reverberating even harder in the build-up to the next election after Interior Minister Gen Anupong Paojinda declared he wants out of politics and Gen Prawit suddenly took a rare interest in engaging in a long conversation with reporters.
Gen Anupong has insisted he will not be in the government after the next election, even if the coalition parties offered him a cabinet post. He cites old age as a reason for wanting to quit.
However, the observer read between the lines and agreed it would be pointless for Gen Anupong to keep any political ambition going when Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit, the two he has stuck with through thick and thin, were being driven by different political agendas.
Gen Prayut is the presumptive prime ministerial candidate of the UTN, which has denied it is a PPRP offshoot. His disassociation from the PPRP has freed Gen Prawit up for nomination as the ruling party's prime ministerial candidate.
This brewing rivalry between the two generals would place Gen Anupong in an awkward position, according to the observer.
Many political scientists concurred that Gen Prayut and Gen Prawit were the two halves that complemented each other's success in government.
Gen Prayut is well-positioned to lead the government with an unblemished track record while Gen Prawit is adept at working behind the scenes to mobilise the might and means needed to pre-empt and mitigate disruptions to the administration.
The experts fear a separation or estrangement would be a recipe for disaster for both of them and the parties they are leading into the election battle.
But increasingly, Gen Prawit is becoming more and more confident stepping out from backstage, so to speak. And he has been doing more speaking as well, according to the observer.
Gen Prawit may have realised he must stop playing second fiddle. One of the first rules of gaining visibility as a leader is to be conversational with reporters, a task he has largely avoided as deputy prime minister.
Gen Prawit's typical replies to reporters' questions were: "No clue", "Who told you that?" or "Ask whoever told you that."
The deputy prime minister recently engaged in what may have been one of his longest talks with newshounds. He took the time to express his confidence and reassure reporters that the PPRP would remain firmly in power after the next polls.
He anticipates the PPRP receiving enough support to give it a say in forming the next government, and notes its MPs are united and keen on helping the people.
"After the last [election], we had more than 100 MPs two months after forming the party ... I have been with the party for as long as four years, how can we fail?" he said.
Despite preferring military life to a political one, he is most likely to stay in politics for the long haul as he wants to turn the PPRP into a political institution.
"Everyone in the PPRP is onboard and rallies behind this idea," he said. "As long as there are people who support me, I'll continue in politics."
The observer said the most pressing question was whether Gen Prawit, assuming he accepts the PPRP's prime ministerial nomination, will step aside and let Gen Prayut become prime minister if the UTN wins far fewer MP seats than the PPRP in the next poll. That would test the strength of their fraternal ties, according to the observer.
Picking an election winner
Political analysts already have their party picks as to who will win the next election, and a grand affair at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center last Monday won't change their view.
Prawit: Needs to talk with journos
However, some are keen to find out how many MPs the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party, also known as Ruam Thai or Ruam Thai Sang Chart, will attract after Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha formally applied for party membership and it was announced he would definitely be the party's prime ministerial candidate.
Gen Prayut's appearance at the "Ruam Jai, Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party" event on Jan 9 is in contrast to the atmosphere in 2019 when Gen Prayut, at that time head of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), decided to enter politics.
When he announced his decision at the time to stand as a candidate for prime minister under the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) banner, he did not join the party and kept his distance thereafter.
But at the UTN event, the live broadcast showed not only a grand reception for the party's VIP, but also Gen Prayut's willingness to engage with the party, according to political observers.
He told the packed gathering that it was the first time he ever had a political allegiance. Gen Prayut also wore the party's blue T-shirt and white jacket, bearing its tri-colour logo as he appeared on stage.
Minus the fanfare, political analysts pointed out that it is the "same old Prayut", but his investment in the party is raising the political stakes for the UTN.
Stithorn Thananithichote, a political researcher at King Prajadhipok's Institute, anticipates more MPs will join the party, but notes that these defectors will be eyeing the party-list system.
Gen Prayut has his own fan base and the UTN can expect to win a respectable number of party-list seats from Gen Prayut's supporters, many of whom have pledged unwavering support and vowed to cast ballots for the party he picks.
Now that Gen Prayut is on board, the UTN is predicted to capture at least 20 party-list seats. That translates into some 7 million votes, based on a calculation that about 350,000 votes are needed to win a party-list seat under the two-ballot system where 100 is used in the calculation.
As for constituency seats, the UTN is expected to grab about 40, and with some 60 seats in its pocket, the party can proceed to nominate Gen Prayut for a vote in parliament and form a coalition government.
According to Mr Stithorn, one of the UTN's political allies will be the Democrat Party which is predicted to win about 40 seats in total -- 30 from the constituency system and ten from the party list.
The PPRP and Bhumjaithai will get most of their seats from constituency candidates and about five party-list seats each. The remaining 60 of the 100 party-list seats will be shared by Pheu Thai, the Move Forward Party and a few others. The current political situation does not bode well for the PPRP with some observers saying the ruling party will end up with fewer seats than the UTN. Several of its MPs have already moved to Bumjaithai and more are expected to follow Gen Prayut to the UTN.
But in Mr Stithorn's opinion, there is no need for PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon to fret about this. This will relieve him of the burden of keeping election candidates with a slim chance of winning.
"He also has an advantage in that he can join a Pheu Thai-led camp or Gen Prayut's. Gen Prawit has the Senate's support [if he vies for the prime minister job]," the analyst said, adding Gen Pawit is badly needed by Pheu Thai, especially if the latter can't achieve the landslide win it is aiming for.
Experts have already predicted a divided Senate when it comes to choosing a prime ministerial candidate.
Mr Stithorn sees a slim chance of the Bhumjaithai Party crossing the floor and joining Pheu Thai to form the next government.
Although Bhumjaithai is likely to grow from a medium-sized to a large party with 100-plus seats at the next contest, it will not be a match for Pheu Thai, which is widely speculated to finish on top with more than 200 seats. Bhumjaithai will not have much bargaining power if it sides with Pheu Thai.
After fighting fiercely in the election campaign and along the way harbouring some hard feelings, the present coalition parties plus the UTN will likely bury any hatchet and reunite after the polls close, according to political observers.