Piyabutr Saengkanokkul doesn't pull any punches when it comes to criticising the government over the way it handles state affairs.
Piyabutr: Vocal government critic
However, when it was his closest allies -- the Move Forward Party (MFP) and its leader Pita Limjaroenrat -- whom the French-educated secretary-general of the Progressive Movement (PM) fired a salvo at, political watchers tried to make sense of the unfolding political drama.
Mr Piyabutr, one of the government's vocal critics, recently gave the MFP a good talking to, and not behind closed doors.
Instead, he took to Facebook, where he wrote at length as though venting pent-up frustrations at the MFP, the party reincarnated from the Future Forward Party (FFP), which Mr Piyabutr and the Progressive Movement chairman, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, co-founded.
An observer said that, in a manner of speaking, the MFP is the "flesh and blood" of Future Forward and the Progressive Movement.
In the Facebook post, Mr Piyabutr offered his opinion, which he labelled as analysis, as he lectured the MFP on how it can stay relevant and true to its support base, which is mostly young, middle-class and liberal-thinking voters.
He opened his article with a question: "What to do with the MFP's popularity going static?" It is one of a series of Facebook articles he is reportedly preparing to write, which is believed to be devoted to critiquing the way the MFP is being run.
The former Thammasat University law expert referred to recent opinion surveys, which he said placed the MFP's popularity rating at around 13-15% and Mr Pita's rating at one or two percentage points behind that of the party.
Mr Piyabutr said both ratings have remained the same for almost a year.
He added that some in politics have predicted the MFP's and Mr Pita's popularity were unlikely to go up in the run-up to the next poll on May 7 unless there was a sudden, fever-pitch surge in voter excitement for the party like the FFP experienced with the "Thanathorn phenomenon" prior to the 2019 general election.
The FFP raked in 81 House seats, with credit for the resounding success owed principally to Mr Thanathorn being billed as a fresh choice for the mostly young voters.
The FFP took the social media world by storm, which, according to observers, was an astute political calculation that hit the nail on the head. The FFP's dominance of social media platforms and channels allowed the party to have direct and unrestricted access to its support bases around the clock.
It was a new campaign strategy that left party voters mesmerised by its promises of groundbreaking changes to herald bona fide social, economic and political equality, the observers said.
However, the FFP was later dissolved by the Constitutional Court over an illegal loan extended to it by Mr Thanathorn, who was the party leader. Mr Thanathorn, Mr Piyabutr and Pannika Wanich, as well as other FFP executives, were banned from politics.
The three later formed the Progressive Movement while the FFP resurrected itself as the MFP, with Mr Pita elected as its first leader.
The Progressive Movement and the MFP have retained close ties, although the Progressive co-leaders have kept clear of the MFP's internal affairs. The MFP has established its own executive board that steers its policy direction, although Mr Piyabutr's words of guidance may not have completely fallen on deaf ears among some MFP members, said observers.
Mr Piyabutr, meanwhile, made it clear on Facebook that if the MFP was to come close to its 2019 election result in the next poll, it must bump its popularity rating up above 20%.
He said the reintroduced dual-ballot election system will make it harder and less precise to assess list MP numbers than the previous method of calculating list MPs in proportion to constituency MPs that a party captured.
However, a source said the fact that Mr Piyabutr resorts to disseminating his "advice" to the MFP via Facebook rather than taking issues up privately with the party or Mr Pita may be an indication of how distant he has become from the MFP.
The source hinted at the possibility of Mr Piyabutr having fallen out with the MFP or even being rejected by the party on account of his hardline stance on some MFP campaign policies, which party members find difficult to go along with.
This rigidness, if adopted, could be what works against the MFP in forming the next government with other parties.
But to Mr Piyabutr, preserving the political stance trumpeted by the FFP, which he has reason to hope has been inherited by the MFP, is about staying true to the principles which earned the FFP its 81 House seats in the previous poll. Discarding them would incur the risk of seeing the support base crumble in the next one.
Fancy seeing you here, Prayut
With the post of prime minister at stake, not to mention how the pair have drifted apart, political rivalry between Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon will spice up the upcoming general election.
Prawit: Seen as upstaging the UTN
Media outlets will be keeping an eye on events in Chumphon today, where Gen Prayut, the UTN's prospective prime ministerial candidate, will lead a party pre-election campaign.
In fact, they are watching to see if Gen Prawit, flag-bearer and potential prime ministerial candidate of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP), shows up in the southern province ahead of Gen Prayut's visit.
The PPRP leader's appearance is drawing interest as their parties are said to be engaged in a battle with each other to recruit MPs to contest national polls.
Gen Prawit -- not once, not twice, but three times -- has turned up ahead of the prime minister's scheduled visits to several constituencies. Observers see this as Gen Prawit attempting to upstage the UTN.
The first time was on Jan 17 when the PPRP leader went to Ratchaburi province, two days before Gen Prayut's visit there to inspect progress in community-based and cultural tourism projects in Muang district.
Gen Prawit reportedly travelled there in his capacity as leader of the ruling party -- not as a cabinet minister -- to convince some party MPs to abandon any plans they might have of defecting to the UTN. According to media reports, he took a leave of absence from a cabinet meeting that day.
The PPRP leader, who met some PPRP and Democrat MPs representing Ratchaburi, was quoted as assuring them that his support for them remained unchanged and asking if they were still with him.
On Jan 20, Gen Prawit visited water development projects in Nakhon Sawan in his capacity as deputy prime minister. Gen Prayut himself is scheduled to conduct official tours in Nakhon Sawan and Phichit on Monday.
Gen Prawit's trip came amid speculation that two PPRP MPs in the province were considering joining Gen Prayut in the UTN. Earlier, the PPRP lost its Nakhon Sawan veteran Veerakorn Khamprakob to the Bhumjaithai Party.
Last Sunday, the PPRP leader was spotted in Yaowarat on an unannounced visit during Chinese New Year celebrations. Bangkok's Chinatown was known to be Gen Prayut's campaign stop during the Lunar New Year.
However, Gen Prawit's unannounced visits did not bother Gen Prayut, who told reporters: "There is no problem if we go there on the same day. Stop presenting news like this. It is not useful."
Gen Prawit, on the other hand, could hardly hide his irritation. When asked if there were any chance he would stop by Chumphon today or possibly on Jan 26, he said: "No means no. Come on! You've been pestering me with the question all day."
Early this month, after announcing his decision to join the UTN, Gen Prayut insisted that he and Gen Prawit were not political foes, regardless of their affiliation to different parties.
However, some observers reckon that the election could create some bad blood between the pair. Competing to recruit MPs is only the beginning of what is predicted to be a drawn-out process to expand the party bases ahead of the next poll.
"[The] PPRP and UTN have overlapping support bases, and one party's gain means a loss for the other, and the PPRP is unlikely to let its MPs switch to the UTN without a fight," said Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration.
The ruling party will be looking at ways to make Gen Prawit look appealing to voters since the PPRP leader is trailing behind other potential prime ministerial candidates in popularity surveys.
Gen Prawit's visit to Yaowarat, where he was seen mingling with the crowds, could be the PPRP working on Gen Prawit's image as an approachable and kind man. The party will have to position itself in a way that Gen Prayut and the UTN will be unable to, according to observers. That includes opening up the possibility of working with any party, including Pheu Thai.
According to observers, the competition between the PPRP and the UTN will be extremely intense when it comes to lobbying junta-appointed senators for their support in the prime minister selection.
The senators were hand-picked by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) headed by Gen Prayut, while Gen Prawit was believed to have considerable influence over the NCPO.
It is believed the senators will be split in their support for both men.