The power balance between the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties is anything but equal right now, as the former believes it is inching ever closer to reaching its goal of leading the next government without other parties, according to sources close to the matter.
Several political observers believe that the MFP needs Pheu Thai more than Pheu Thai needs the MFP, as the MFP has made it clear it won't do business with what it called the "pro-dictatorship" parties, specifically the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the newly formed United Thai Nation (UTN) Party.
While the MFP has only publicly ruled out working with the UTN and PPRP, which are led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, respectively, the party's rhetoric does not exactly sit well with other parties in the present coalition -- namely Bhumjaithai, Chartthaipattana and the Democrats.
If the MFP's key figures believe Bhumjaithai, Chartthaipattana, and the Democrats cannot be its coalition partner due to their past association with the 2014 coup-makers, then the party will find its options very limited, with Pheu Thai, Seri Ruam Thai, and Thai Sang Thai left in the mix.
Traditionally, the party which secures the largest number of votes in an election gets to choose which parties it works with. As such, the observers noted, in the next election, Pheu Thai seems to have a higher chance of picking its coalition partners than the MFP.
The party has consistently revised its MP tally targets up from 250 initially to 270 and now 310. The party is obviously confident it can realise what critics have disparaged as its overly-ambitious goal of pulling in more than half of the House seats which are up for grabs in the next election.
As the main opposition party, Pheu Thai has a reason to feel confident. A number of political veterans and scions of established political dynasties have defected to the party ahead of the polls, due to take place in May.
Among them were the Chon Buri-based Kunplome faction led by Sonthaya Kunplome and the Sam Mitr faction led by Somsak Thepsutin. Both factions left the PPRP to join Pheu Thai.
Mr Somsak, a former justice minister who has an established political foothold in Sukhothai, said he needed to be with the bloc which will form the next government, adding he has no interest in ending up on the opposition benches after the next election.
With the two factions under its banner, Pheu Thai stands to gain 20 additional constituency MPs on top of its projected House seat tally.
The party also received a morale boost from the results of Nida Poll's first post-House dissolution survey, which showed Pheu Thai has a vast lead, at 49.75%, over the MFP, UTN and other parties to form the next government.
However, a different survey conducted by security authorities, which analysed information gathered by undercover officers on the ground, predicted Pheu Thai would only get around 180 MP seats at best.
Despite the security poll painting a less encouraging outlook for Pheu Thai, the party continues to dominate the spotlight, with a recent news report from Tokyo saying fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra will return to the country most probably this year to serve his time in jail.
Thaksin is without a doubt the most respected figure among Pheu Thai members and supporters. Also founder of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai Party, which is the predecessor of the Pheu Thai, he has been convicted in a number of criminal cases.
Critics note he has made similar "homecoming" announcements in the past, but they never panned out. While the rumours could be nothing but a puff of hot air, they may prompt swing voters to take notice, thus bolstering Pheu Thai's poll standing, they said.
The party itself has shown no interest in forging an alliance with other parties within the "pro-democracy" camp, declaring there is no such thing as "brothers and sisters" when it comes to political parties competing in an election.
The MFP, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, who is the party's sole prime ministerial candidate, could also take a battering in the next poll.
Its predecessor, the Future Forward Party (FFP) managed to secure 81 House seats in the previous 2019 poll, thanks in large part to Pheu Thai's ally, the Thai Raksa Chart (TRC) Party, being dissolved by the Constitutional Court for nominating Princess Ubolratana, the elder sister of His Majesty the King, as its prime ministerial candidate.
The TRC was widely seen as Pheu Thai's answer to the MFP, a more modern version of the old party which would attract younger voters. So when it was dissolved, voters who had intended to cast their ballots for the TRC switched to the FFP, which had built its image on being a liberal democratic outfit, appealing to first-time voters.
But for the next poll, Pheu Thai is out to reclaim young voters on its own, in a bid to secure a landslide win. The main opposition party is giving one of its most senior roles, as head of the Pheu Thai Family, to Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin's youngest daughter, who is exploiting the tools at Pheu Thai's disposal to connect with young voters and win them over.
Lacking a knockout punch?
In the build-up to this week of MP candidacy registration, several opinion polls were carried out to give insight into the likely outcome of the general election while political parties worked out their seat targets and paths to victory.
Paetongtarn: Widening lead
Pheu Thai, which set a goal of winning the general election by a landslide, held a comfortable lead over its political rivals, with several recent polls showing the party was widening its lead.
The party, whose election campaign is spearheaded by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, had the support of 46.16% of respondents interviewed by Suan Dusit Poll. In a separate survey conducted by Nida Poll, the party dominated, with almost 50% of respondents saying they would vote for Pheu Thai in both the constituency and party-list systems.
Buoyed by large poll leads, the party revised its MP target to 270 and then to 310, with 50 coming from the party-list system. However, most political analysts take Pheu Thai's overall MP targets with a grain of salt.
Despite expectations of a Pheu Thai victory in the May 14 general election, they argue there is no indication the party has packed enough punch to grab 310 seats even if it can secure 50 party-list seats, which is half of the 100 seats available.
Pheu Thai did not win a single party-list seat in the 2019 general election due to the single ballot system. However, the upcoming poll will revert to the two-ballot system, which favours large parties like the Pheu Thai.
According to veteran analyst Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, Pheu Thai will capture between 200-220 seats from the constituency system at its best. Combined with 50 party-list seats, Pheu Thai may be able to capture 270 seats at most.
The larger share is based on the prediction that the party will retake House seats in several central provinces it lost to the Move Forward Party (MFP) in the previous election. Pheu Thai is poised to make a clean sweep in some of these provinces, including Samut Prakan.
While the poll winner is clear, the first runner-up in the May 14 polls is too close to call, according to Mr Phichai, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration.
It could be the MFP led by Pita Limjaroenrat or the Bhumjaithai Party headed by Anutin Charnvirakul. The two parties would have combined House seats of 200, according to the analyst.
The MFP is predicted to win 17-20 party-list seats and 15 seats in Bangkok, while most of the Bhumjaithai's share will come from the constituency system. Bhumjaithai is expected to win no more than five party-list seats at best.
This leaves the remaining 130 seats to be divided among three major parties -- the Democrat Party, the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the United Thai Nation Party (UTN).
If the Democrats can retain their supporters, the party could grab 30-40 seats. However, based on the party's approval rating, which has dropped to 6%, the Democrat Party's share will be no more than six list seats.
Former Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva's absence from the contest will likely make voters who backed the party in the 2019 polls due to his political stance turn their back on the party. Without Mr Abhisit, this group of supporters, known as liberals, will desert the party and switch to the MFP, which is campaigning on a progressive platform.
According to Mr Phichai, the Democrats will also win fewer seats in the southern region, although the number should not fall below 15. The party should expect to retain seats in Prachuap Khiri Khan, a stronghold of party secretary-general Chalermchai Sri-on and in Rayong, a bastion of deputy leader Sathit Pitutecha.
The Democrats may make a political comeback in Bangkok, snatching one or two seats in the capital which is widely seen as a battleground between Pheu Thai and the MFP.
The PPRP, led by Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and the UTN backed by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, will battle for fifth spot, with the latter likely to win fewer than 25 seats -- the minimum number required for a party to be eligible to nominate a prime minister.
Due to Gen Prayut's popularity which outranks the party's candidates, the UTN is predicted to get at least 12 list seats and between 10-15 constituency seats.
The PPRP has been consistently behind in opinion polls, and its popularity has slipped to less than 3%, so the number of party-list seats the party is predicted to win will be around three at best. However, the party has strong constituency candidates whose organised support will compensate for this.
As for smaller parties, the Thai Sang Thai Party led by Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan is likely to grab three seats from the party-list system and possibly one or two seats from constituency candidates.
The Seri Ruam Thai Party headed by Pol Gen Sereepisuth Temeeyaves will likely get three seats at most from the party-list system, while the Chartpattanakla Party risks walking away with just one list MP, Suwat Liptapanlop, the party chairman who occupies the No.1 slot on the list of candidates in the list system. The party leader, Korn Chatikavanij, has been relegated to second place on the list candidacy.