The June 26 Senate poll and the June 30 Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman election in Pathum Thani have left the country's two largest parties wary of a lurking threat from the third-ranked Bhumjaithai Party.
Bhumjaithai, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, who is also deputy prime minister and interior minister, has stunned observers by outfoxing both Pheu Thai and the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) in the Senate election and possibly Pheu Thai in the PAO race.
The polls proved to be a wake-up call for Pheu Thai and the MFP, which, until the end of last month, were thought to have the best chances of leading a coalition government after the next general election less than four years from now.
However, the two elections shattered this thought after a close look was taken at how both contests panned out.
A source said it would not be wide of the mark to say that the election to select 200 senators from among 20 professional groups had bewildered most observers and many politicians.
In the final and national round of voting in the Senate poll, more than 120 winners were reportedly linked to the "blue" party, a reference to Bhumjaithai. Around 20 others were thought to be aligned with the MFP and about an equal number with Pheu Thai.
The rest fell into "the others" category, according to a description given by some media outlets.
The source said that although senators are required by law to be independent of a political group or party, a grey area exists where they might have had a prior working relationship or had politicians as family friends or business partners. Some senator-elects might even be followers of a party's ideology.
The Election Commission (EC) has been bombarded with complaints that range from unqualified candidates having been allowed to register for the election, candidates signing up for the wrong professional groups, to illegal lobbying of members within and across professional groups, allegedly orchestrated by people allied to political parties.
The source said lobbying had taken place even before the EC officially declared the start of the Senate poll. The lobbying had manifested itself in the form of a movement leader giving the names of those among its members who were planning to run as candidates. This was so it could mobilise enough supporters to register their candidacy. The supporters would then give their votes to these candidates during the intra and inter-group vote at the district, provincial and national levels.
Despite the carefully executed plan, the poll result proved disappointing for some parties, which were set on seeing like-minded candidates make the cut and go on to occupy seats in the upper chamber to "assist" them in their push for the passage of key pieces of legislation.
The legal wrangling pushed the EC to delay its announcement of the official Senate poll result initially expected on July 2.
The commission was on the receiving end of heated complaints from former poll watchers, serial petitioners and Senate candidates. A number of them argued in favour of the Senate poll being nullified and everything reverting back to square one, while others insisted any senators-elect who had violated the election law should be dealt with individually.
Regardless of how the poll mess pans out, there is no escaping the fact that the "blue" party may have eased itself into the Senate and is now a force to be reckoned with, said the source.
The biggest surprise, however, was that the blue party had managed to wield considerable lobbying power right under the noses of the large parties.
If the blue party has its way in the Senate, the MFP is predicted to be in for a rough ride trying to push the passage of controversial bills, including one seeking a blanket amnesty for offenders and inmates charged with breaking Section 112 of the Criminal Code or the lese majeste law.
It may also lend credence to a theory that without the full exploitation of social media to spread its message and gather support, the main opposition party loses much of its potency.
It is thought any Senate lobbying will hinge mainly on conventional patronage support, which relies heavily on person-to-person relationships rather than random, propagandistic effects achieved via social media communication, according to the source.
Meanwhile, barely a week after the Senate election, the PAO chairman poll in Pathum Thani gave Pheu Thai a jolt despite the ruling party emerging as victors.
Some observers viewed Pheu Thai's triumph as dismal as the party narrowly defeated its rival, Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit Toopkrajang from the Khon Rak Pathum (Love Pathum) group, by less than 2,000 votes.
"In political terms, winning by a hair's breadth essentially amounts to a defeat," one observer said of Charn Phuangphet, Pheu Thai's candidate.
Mr Charn was also suspended upon taking office as PAO chairman on account of a prior indictment in the Criminal Court in a graft case.
The June 30 local election was indeed tight, as predicted by opinion polls. The observer said Mr Charn, with the resources and manpower made available to him by the ruling party, as well as endorsement from former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, should have been well ahead of Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit.
Pathum Thani used to be a Pheu Thai stronghold until last year's general election, in which the MFP almost clinched a clean sweep in the province.
However, it was reported Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit has cultivated strong ties with Bhumjaithai which is keen to spread its wings in lower Central Plains constituencies.
Bhumjaithai's strategy is to secure Pathum Thani and work its way up the Chao Phraya River to win seats in neighbouring Ayutthaya, which shares a border with Ang Thong, currently represented in parliament by Paradorn Prissanananthakul from Bhumjaithai.
Could it be the end is nigh?
The political career of Pol Capt Chalerm Ubumrung, a stalwart of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, appears to be nearing its end following his son Wan's resignation from the party, according to observers.
Chalerm: Pheu Thai future in doubt
A disgruntled Mr Wan tendered his resignation with the Election Commission (EC) early this week after he was summonsed to explain himself to party executives and leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra on July 9 about his appearance at the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman election in Pathum Thani on June 30.
The former Bangkok MP went to see Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit Toopkrajang, a close friend of the family, after the polls had closed. Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit later learned he had lost the election to Pheu Thai's candidate, Charn Phuangphet.
"I can't stay on now that the party executives are no longer happy with me," Mr Wan was quoted as saying. He went on to say that he was counting on the party to expel his father, who is a Pheu Thai list MP, so Pol Capt Chalerm can defect.
Several observers believe it is only a matter of time before Pol Capt Chalerm parts ways with the party. This is not the first time the Ubumrung family has felt discontent with Pheu Thai.
In November last year, Pol Capt Chalerm declared he had turned his back on Thaksin Shinawatra, widely perceived as a powerful figure within the ruling party, for good. He even challenged Thaksin to formally kick him out of Pheu Thai if he thought he should be disowned.
Pol Capt Chalerm was reportedly angered after learning from a news report that Thaksin did not want Pol Capt Chalerm and Mr Wan to have cabinet portfolios because they were "troublesome".
Weeks later, Ms Paetongtarn paid them a visit in what was seen as an attempt to clear the air, and it was widely speculated that the Ubumrung family and the party leadership had reconciled.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said the Ubumrungs' association with Pheu Thai is effectively over, with no chance of the family and the party reuniting.
"If the head of the Ubumrung family can't do what the head of the Thienthong family did, his future with the Pheu Thai Party looks bleak. It appears the Ubumrungs' time in the party is coming to an end," said Mr Thanaporn.
The analyst was referring to veteran politician Sanoh Thienthong, who managed to reunite with Pheu Thai despite having had a strained relationship with Thaksin.
Mr Sanoh left Thai Rak Thai, which was founded by Thaksin, in 2005 and became a sworn enemy of the former premier. He joined the anti-Thaksin rally led by the now-defunct People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) and told the crowd about Thaksin's alleged corruption.
However, ahead of the 2011 general election, Mr Sanoh's political family returned to Thaksin's fold and won the election under Pheu Thai's banner.
The faction was also awarded a number of cabinet seats in the Yingluck Shinawatra administration.
According to the analyst, Ms Paetongtarn needs to take action when dealing with party old-timers who no longer contribute to the party in her bid to transform Pheu Thai.
These individuals must step aside. Otherwise, younger politicians will not have the opportunity to rise through the ranks, preventing the party from evolving and effectively competing with the main opposition Move Forward Party.
If Pheu Thai makes no effort to reinvent itself, it may struggle to compete even with the third-biggest party, Bhumjaithai, which is thought to have become a formidable force, judging from the result of the recent Senate election in which more than half of the senators are reported to be aligned to the party.
The coalition party has been widely criticised for interfering in the Senate election process, something it has vehemently denied.
On the Ubumrungs' political future, Mr Thanaporn doubts that the father and son will defect to Bhumjaithai considering the bitter history between Pol Capt Chalerm and Newin Chidchob, the de facto leader of the coalition partner.
He recalled the time when Mr Newin was turned away by Pol Capt Chalerm's Muan Chon Party when Mr Newin was caught in the middle of a political storm in the 1990s.
Mr Newin, leader of the then powerful Group of 16 -- mostly up-and-coming young politicians -- was implicated in the Bangkok Bank of Commerce scandal. The Chart Thai Party led by the late Banharn Silpa-archa did not want to field him, while Muan Chon declined to take him.
Mr Newin ended up with the Solidarity Party before he joined Thai Rak Thai.
"Those who think Pol Capt Chalerm will defect to Bhumjaithai should ask Mr Newin whether he has let go of the past," said Mr Thanaporn.