The political temperature is expected to rise next month as the Constitutional Court will rule on two high-profile cases that will decide the fate of the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) and Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.
"I believe the prospects of the MFP surviving the dissolution case are slim," former red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan said. "In the case brought against Mr Srettha, if he is removed from office, this may have a ripple effect on the [ruling] Pheu Thai Party."
Pheu Thai still has two PM candidates to replace Mr Srettha: party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra and core member Chaikasem Nitisiri, according to other observers.
Commenting on the case against him, Mr Srettha said on Thursday that he would focus on his work and that his morale remains high. He said he was confident coalition members would remain united. "A difference in opinion is normal. If problems arise, they will be sorted out."
Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charvirakul on Thursday downplayed speculation that he could replace Mr Srettha as prime minister if Mr Srettha loses his job as a result of the court's ruling.
"Every cabinet minister has given moral support to the prime minister. We hope he can get through tough times," said Mr Anutin, who is also the Bhumjaithai Party leader and a PM candidate in the last election.
The case against Mr Srettha began when a group of 40 caretaker senators lodged a petition in May, asking the Constitutional Court to remove him from office for allegedly violating the constitution by appointing Pichit Chuenban, an ex-convict and an ally of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, as Mr Srettha's PM's Office Minister in the latest cabinet reshuffle.
The senators argued that Pichit was unfit to assume a cabinet post because he had served jail time, along with two colleagues, for contempt of court in 2008 after they tried to bribe Supreme Court officials by handing them a paper bag containing 2 million baht.
Pichit represented Thaksin in a controversial land case at the time.
Pichit resigned from the PM's Office Minister post just before the court accepted the petition, which was seen as a bid to spare Mr Srettha from a legal wrangle. The court agreed to hear the case against Mr Srettha, but rejected the case against Pichit because he had already stepped down.
The court will rule on the case against Mr Srettha on Aug 14.
The case against the MFP was filed by the Election Commission (EC) in March, after the Constitutional Court ruled on Jan 31 that the MFP's efforts to change Section 112 of the Criminal Code reflected an intention to undermine Thailand's constitutional monarchy.
Based on the Jan 31 ruling, the EC argued the party violated Section 92 of the organic law on political parties, which gives the court the power to dissolve any party threatening the constitutional monarchy.
The poll agency asked the court to disband the party, ban its executives from standing in future elections and prohibit them from registering or serving as executives of a new party for 10 years. The Constitutional Court will rule on the dissolution case against the MFP on Aug 7.
MFP leader Chaithawat Tulathon earlier said that the party was ready to accept the outcome whether it was good or bad for the party.
The MFP has grown stronger, with its members better equipped and more prepared to work so the party will emerge victorious at the next general election, he said.
Meanwhile, all eyes will be on Thaksin after he completes his one-year jail sentence on Aug 22. It remains to be seen whether he will assume a position in Pheu Thai to help reverse its declining popularity.
Thaksin, 74, returned to Thailand on Aug 22, last year, after 15 years in self-exile. That same day, the Supreme Court ordered he be imprisoned for eight years over three cases.
However, Thaksin was sent from Bangkok Remand Prison that night to the Police General Hospital for health reasons.
His jail term was cut to one year by a royal pardon. After spending six months in the hospital, Thaksin was paroled and discharged in February.
