The ruling Pheu Thai Party is going out of its way to try and shore up its waning popularity in time for the next general election a little more than three years away. But will it succeed?
Some observers are already speculating on the rapid but quiet inroads the second-ranked coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, is making.
Bhumjaithai is well-positioned to rival Pheu Thai in terms of size and dominance ahead of the next polls, which paints a scenario of the ruling party being relegated to the third-biggest party and Bhumjaithai, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, replacing it as the second biggest.
The next poll could pit the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), last year's election winner and head of the liberal democracy camp, against Bhumjaithai, which is emerging as the leader of the conservative bloc, a position Pheu Thai is perceived to hold.
This possibility is undoubtedly feared by Pheu Thai as it struggles to re-establish itself and grow, according to an analyst.
However, the way Pheu Thai is going about it in light of its plummeting poll figures may prove not enough to overtake its rivals, the analyst said.
The party has been trying to reconnect with powerful figures in local politics in provinces where it retains substantial influence over voters. In other words, Pheu Thai comes across as banking on "big wins" in the constituency system at the next polls.
At stake are 400 constituency seats and 100 party-list seats.
The analyst said Pheu Thai would need to capture at least 200 constituency seats and 50 list ones to achieve an outright majority in parliament.
But what stands between Pheu Thai and more than doubling last year's election figures are the MFP's meteoric rise in opinion polls, Bhumjaithai's augmented political acumen and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's "fast track" treatment by the justice system.
At the end of June, Pheu Thai's popularity had continued to slide while that of the MFP and its chief adviser, Pita Limjaroenrat soared, according to a quarterly poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida).
Nida poll's forecast on top-scoring parties in last year's general election turned out to be prophetic.
The MFP's solid gains in the opinion poll have come despite the government's best efforts to get the economy back on track.
The results showed only 12% of voters supported Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a sharp drop from 17% in the previous survey. Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin's youngest daughter, also saw her popularity dip from 6% to 4.8%.
Mr Pita, meanwhile, maintained his lead over all other prime ministerial candidates, with a 45% approval rating, a slight increase from 42% in the last quarterly poll.
The analyst attributed Pheu Thai's ratings drop to a shortage of high-profile policies to jolt the economy back from months of stagnation.
The much-touted flagship digital wallet scheme is more than a year late and, despite moving close to the recipient registration stage, has been the subject of ridicule for restricting what people can spend their windfall on.
The analyst said the longer Pheu Thai takes to pull off its urgent economic stimulus programmes, the more voters will yearn for a change, and they are placing their hopes with the MFP.
The MFP is reaping the benefits chiefly because it has not been in government before and, therefore, has no issues to speak of, which can drag its name through the mud, according to the analyst.
At the same time, the fact that Thaksin did not spend a single night in prison after his return last year from self-imposed exile to face justice over the Ratchadaphisek land deal has rubbed voters up the wrong way.
A political commentator said Thaksin should have served the one-year jail sentence to show respect and gratitude for the royal pardon. The failure to do so was interpreted by some as an affront to the kindness afforded to him. Critics said Thaksin is becoming more of a liability than an asset for Pheu Thai.
Bhumjaithai, meanwhile, has found itself accused of conducting a covert campaign that resulted in many of its supporters being elected to the Senate. The election was required by law to be free from political interference.
The intra and inter-professional group Senate polls fought at district, provincial and ultimately national levels produced a startling result in the eyes of pundits after so-called "blue-affiliated" winners were linked to Bhumjaithai.
The party has denied manipulating the election. However, the analyst said the Upper House poll was a clear illustration of the blue element's extraordinary prowess in mustering enough lobbying power to get its supporters elected.
The analyst said Bhumjaithai looks set to go from strength to strength in the build-up to the next general election. It is thought the party could well be on its way to winning yellow-shirt backing to lead the conservative bloc into that election. If that is the case, Pheu Thai, now being showcased as a leading neo-conservative party, will be given a run for its money, according to the analyst.
Likely down, but not out
While most political watchers are being noncommittal about next week's court ruling to decide the fate of the Move Forward Party (MFP), one analyst is certain its days are numbered.
Sirikanya: Well positioned to lead
The Constitutional Court is scheduled to hand down its ruling on Wednesday in response to a petition submitted in March by the Election Commission (EC) over the party's poll pledge to revise Section 112 of the Criminal Code, known as the lese majeste law.
The poll agency asked the court to disband the MFP for violating Section 92 of the organic law on political parties, which gives the court the power to dissolve any party threatening the constitutional monarchy.
The EC also asked the court to ban party executives from standing in future elections and prohibit them from serving as executives of a political party for ten years.
The dissolution case follows a separate ruling by the Constitutional Court on Jan 31 that said the MFP's efforts to amend the lese majeste law reflected an intention to undermine the constitutional monarchy and ordered the MFP to cease all attempts to rewrite Section 112.
In their Jan 31 ruling, the judges also pointed to past actions of former party leader Pita Limjaroenrat as well as those conducted by the MFP in general, including its bid for bail to be granted to suspects in lese majeste cases.
In its defence, the MFP argued that the EC did not follow regulations when it proceeded to propose the party's dissolution. To strengthen its case, it submitted a statement by law expert Suraphol Nitikraipote.
Mr Suraphol argued that campaigning for amendments to the lese majeste law or appearing at rallies to protest against the law are lawful exercises of free expression in accordance with democratic principles. MPs guaranteeing bail for lese majeste suspects is an action by individual MPs for which the party should not be held accountable.
However, Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, has predicted a grim outcome for the MFP, saying that from whichever angle one looks at the case, whether on the basis of facts and from the point of view of the law, he cannot see how the party can escape dissolution.
"But unlike when its predecessor the Future Forward Party (FFP) was dissolved in 2020, there will be no 'cobras' this time around," Mr Thanaporn said.
"Cobra" is a term referring to MPs who typically vote against their party. This was believed to have been common during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration led by the Palang Pracharath Party, which held a razor-thin majority and required help from the cobras when a show of hands was needed to ensure the passage of key pieces of legislation.
According to Mr Thanaporn, the Pheu Thai-led government has a solid majority in the House and does not require defectors or MFP MPs to switch sides.
"Moreover, political parties that fed the cobras must have learned by now that they weren't worth the investment because these MPs were incapable of winning elections on their own," he said, implying that the election success of these politicians was purely due to the MFP's popularity.
The MFP MPs themselves, upon seeing what happened to defectors, are more likely to join a new party, its fallback option, than move to any coalition party if the party were to be disbanded, said Mr Thanaporn. If a party is disbanded, its MPs have 60 days in which to join a new party or lose their MP status.
He is convinced all MFP MPs will move to a party that has been set up to accommodate them in case of a dissolution. It's predicted this new outfit will be even stronger in the next poll, he added.
According to Mr Thanaporn, although the MFP chief adviser and former leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, will be banned from politics in the event of a dissolution, his absence will have no impact on the party.
The MFP proved itself able to not only survive but also thrive without Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, the two key figures of the now defunct-FFP who have formed the Progressive Movement after being barred from politics, he said.
"After being dissolved [the new party] will fare much more strongly. The Future Forward Party had 80 MPs, and after it was reincarnated as the MFP, it won 151 seats. The party will continue to broaden its support base and capture more seats in the next polls," he said.
According to Mr Thanaporn, the MFP appears to have found itself third-generation leaders such as deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul, Veerayut Karnchuchart and Dechrat Sukkamnerd. These individuals possess deep economic acumen and are well positioned to lead the party to victory in the next election.