It has been said that major political parties cannot escape being directed, but not by their respective registered leaders. Terms have been coined to describe the controlling agent, be they chaperone, string-puller, puppet master, or simply the power behind the throne.
A source said Thai politics has long been intertwined with "de facto leaders" of parties, who experience a hard time relinquishing power and stepping aside. In the past, the source said many political parties found themselves looking to "towering figures" known to wield considerable influence over their decision-making and policy formulation.
Fast-forward to today and some of the country's parties may well be in the same situation, the source added. Glaring cases in point are the ruling Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai parties.
Between them, they have almost half of the total MPs in the House of Representatives. The source said the string-pulling politics has come to characterise "manipulative democracy" which is long entrenched in the country.
Come Aug 22, Pheu Thai will have cause for celebration with paroled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra officially completing his prison term for convictions in several cases he returned to face last year.
His critics have had a field day accusing the state machinery of bending the law to enable Thaksin to dodge spending time in jail. Instead, he was sent to the Police General Hospital, where he was said to have stayed for treatment for severe illnesses for the initial duration of his prison sentence. After that, he was granted parole.
Thaksin is held in high esteem by Pheu Thai, led by his youngest daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. It is an open secret that the former premier has travelled up and down the country despite being on parole in an apparent mission to shore up support for Pheu Thai.
The source said Aug 22 could possibly give a new lease of life to Thaksin, who will be free to engage in active politics.
It is thought he might be offered the role of Pheu Thai's top adviser, which could give him significant influence over the formulation and execution of party policies with little resistance from Ms Paetongtarn. This is where lines dividing leadership and blood relationships are prone to being blurred.
The source said Thaksin has always been the main figure in Pheu Thai, the history of which goes back to his founding of the now-dissolved Thai Rak Thai Party.
He was linked to a move to have his brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, installed as prime minister and credited with laying plans to mobilise red-shirt supporters who swept Pheu Thai to power. The victory saw Thaksin's younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, become prime minister.
Thaksin could have been hoping to repeat this success with Ms Paetongtarn, who was at one point flirting with the possibility of replacing Srettha Thavisin as premier while he waited on the Constitutional Court's ruling made on Wednesday to remove him for appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister in the last reshuffle.
Ms Paetongtarn, is after all, one of two remaining Pheu Thai prime ministerial candidates. The other is Chaikasem Nitisiri who is viewed as a far less suitable option given his ailing health.
The source said Thaksin is now able to go and pursue his political endeavours with far fewer restrictions than before.
All eyes are now looking to see what Pheu Thai will do with Thaksin advising on the sidelines to stave off the growing threat from Bhumjaithai, which is said to have the backing of 150 out of 200 senators.
Although Bhumjaithai is led by Anutin Charnvirakul, like Pheu Thai, the third-largest party has a "guiding hand" of its own to speak of. Newin Chidchob, the co-founder of Bhumjaithai, had declared he had washed his hands of politics and left the party in the care of Mr Anutin. He declared he was devoting his time and energy to building up Buriram United, of which he is the chairman, into a football powerhouse.
The source, however, said that Mr Newin may have faded into the background, but it cannot be presumed that he has severed ties with Bhumjaithai.
The source said Mr Newin, a seasoned politician from a well-known political family, comes across as being hawkish and is also judged by opponents as having a dubious past.
His record in the political arena ranges from an election fraud scandal in the 1990s in which two supporters in Buri Ram were convicted of vote-buying to helping engineer the rise of the Democrat Party in 2009 with its leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, elected in parliament as prime minister.
After being slapped by the Constitutional Court with a political ban, along with 110 former Thai Rak Thai Party members, Mr Newin turned his attention to sport.
All the while, he is known to disseminate advice necessary for steering Bhumjaithai safely through treacherous political waters and not making the party vulnerable to a sustained attack from opponents.
The source also said that unlike Thaksin, Mr Newin has managed to stay in the shadows and taken a back seat, freeing Mr Anutin up to lead the party.
Thaksin is much more visible, often stealing the limelight from his own daughter. Mr Anutin, on the other hand, comes across as being "himself" in running Bhumjaithai.
Rising from the ashes
Unfazed by the dissolution order, 143 MPs of the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP) have quickly regrouped and set their sights on winning big in the next general election in 2027.
Thaksin: A 'free' man after Aug 22
They took over the Thin Kakao Chaovilai Party when the MFP was ordered dissolved by the Constitutional Court on Aug 7 for undermining the constitutional monarchy over the party's bid to revise Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lese majeste law.
Thin Kakao Chaovilai was renamed "Prachachon" [People] and launched on Aug 9, with 37-year-old Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut as its leader.
According to him, the People's Party's (PP) goal is to secure enough House seats in the next polls to form a single-party government capable of driving significant changes.
According to observers, the PP's first test will be the by-election in Constituency 1 of Phitsanulok province. The seat was left vacant by former MP Padipat Suntiphada who was stripped of his parliamentary status as a result of the MFP dissolution.
Mr Padipat won in last year's general election on the MFP's ticket and was also chosen as the first Deputy House Speaker.
He joined the Fair Party after being expelled from the MFP, which was seen as a move to allow him to keep the deputy House Speaker role and free up the MFP leader to become the opposition leader.
An opposition party is barred from having one of its members serve as House Speaker or a deputy Speaker.
In the upcoming by-election in Phitsanulok, tentatively scheduled for Sept 15, the PP has decided to field Natthachanon Chanaburanasak. It is thought that only one government party will field a candidate, keeping with tradition that coalition parties do not compete against each other in by-elections.
The PP is going all out in its preparations for the by-election, with former MPF executives, including Pita Limjaroenrat, who has a political ban, expected to turn out in force to assist in the campaign.
Observers have little doubt that the PP will win, but they are not sure about the party's chances of clinching victory in the election of provincial administration organisation (PAO) chairs.
In recent PAO contests in Ayutthaya, Chai Nat and Phayao, all the winners were known to have affiliations with three government parties -- Bhumjaithai, the United Thai Nation Party and Pheu Thai. Candidates affiliated with the disbanded MFP stood as independents.
Several analysts believe that when it comes to local elections, the PP's popularity might not necessarily translate into wins for its candidates. Long-established political families, known as "Ban Yai", usually hold sway in local politics.
However, some observers suggest that because the PAO elections were not expected until early next year, the resignation of PAO chairs in these provinces to force early elections caught the opposition party off guard.
In its defence, the then MFP argued that the party did not officially contest the local elections and the key party figures were not actively involved in the election campaigns. A claim that the party cannot compete with the influence of political families might be unfair.
According to Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration, the next PAO election in Ratchaburi on Sept 1 may give a clearer picture.
The PP has fielded Chairat Sakisarapong as its candidate in Ratchaburi and vows to bring better changes to the province. According to the PP leader, it is time for people to demonstrate that there is no place for patronage in politics.
Apart from Ratchaburi, the PP is expected to officially contest PAO elections in four other provinces -- Chiang Mai, Udon Thani, Trat and Lamphun. "The outcome of the elections in Ratchaburi and in Phitsanulok, where the PP leader will help in the campaign, will better reflect the party's popularity," said Mr Phichai.
The PP has not given up on its bid to amend Section 112 when asked at the party's launch, saying the Constitutional Court does not prohibit amending the law as long as it is revised through the legislative process in parliament.
"From now on, we have to tread carefully. We have to study the Constitutional Court's ruling as well as legalities [regarding amending Section 112 to avoid being dissolved again]," Mr Natthaphong was quoted as saying.
