Fierce rivalry in Thai provincial polls
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Fierce rivalry in Thai provincial polls

Pheu Thai picked to win most seats

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Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, also leader of the Pheu Thai Party, greets supporters during a campaign for the party's candidate for the chief of the Provincial Administrative Organisation in Nakhon Phanom on Sunday. PHEU THAI PARTY
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, also leader of the Pheu Thai Party, greets supporters during a campaign for the party's candidate for the chief of the Provincial Administrative Organisation in Nakhon Phanom on Sunday. PHEU THAI PARTY

Fierce competition is expected in the elections for Provincial Administration Organisation (PAO) presidents and members in 47 provinces on Feb 1, with candidates from the ruling Pheu Thai Party expected to win most seats, says a political analyst.

The parties -- Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai and People's Party (PP) -- are contesting the polls to fill positions left vacant by PAO presidents who have not completed their term. Several PAO presidents in various provinces resigned before their terms ended on Dec 19, 2024, which triggered the need for elections within 60 days. Elections for officials completing their terms must take place within 45 days.

Observers say the elections are a make-or-break opportunity for the three parties, as they see the polls as a way to build their support base for the general election in 2027.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said candidates from Pheu Thai are running for the PAO chairmanships in 16 provinces. Of them, two are party members while the rest are candidates affiliated with the party.

With former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the party's de facto leader, helping campaign for candidates in several provinces recently, Mr Stithorn said he believed these candidates would win easily in provinces which are Pheu Thai's political strongholds. "The ruling party controls state mechanisms. Thaksin's daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is prime minister so the candidates have all the advantages over their rivals.

"Politicians from local political clans who are running under Pheu Thai's banner are guaranteed success," Mr Stithorn said. "It is better for local political clans to run in the polls with the support of Thaksin than to compete against Pheu Thai," he said.

During recent campaigns in several provinces, Thaksin indicated local politicians are almost powerless to achieve anything substantial if they refuse to work with the central government. This means provinces will benefit if voters choose candidates affiliated with the government, Mr Stithorn said.

"Pheu Thai itself is also looking to make use of success in the PAO elections as a platform to win the next general election in 2027. The party hopes to leverage the network of local political clans to compete against PP in the national poll," he said.

"Pheu Thai's candidates are likely to win in almost every province, except in some provinces such as Nakhon Phanom and Si Sa Ket, where Pheu Thai's candidates are facing tough competition from candidates from the Bhumjaithai Party, a coalition government member," he said. "Pheu Thai may lose to Bhumjaithai in some provinces, but it is unlikely to be defeated by the PP," he said. Mr Stithorn added the PP, a reincarnation of the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP), is expected to field candidates in provinces where the MFP won in the 2023 election.

The PP also expected to win in PAO elections in small provinces such as Trat, and Samut Sakhon, while the PP also hopes to win in Samut Prakan, the support base of the Juangroongruangkit family.

Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, chairman of the Progressive Movement, which has links with the MFP and the PP, previously assisted PP's campaigns several provinces.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Paetongtarn on Sunday visited Nakhon Phanom to help campaign for Pheu Thai's candidate, Anuchit Hongsadee.

Pita Limjaroenrat, former leader of the now-dissolved Move Forward Party, is surrounded by supporters as he assists the opposition People's Party campaign ahead of next month's PAO chairman election in Chiang Mai. People's Party

Pita Limjaroenrat, former leader of the now-dissolved Move Forward Party, is surrounded by supporters as he assists the opposition People's Party campaign ahead of next month's PAO chairman election in Chiang Mai. People's Party

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