Fierce competition is expected in the elections of Provincial Administration Organisation (PAO) presidents in 47 provinces on Feb 1 between three major parties, observers say.
The parties -- Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai and People's Party (PP) -- are contesting polls to fill positions left vacant by PAO presidents who have not completed their term.
Several PAO presidents in various provinces resigned before their terms ended on Dec 19, 2024, requiring elections to be held within 60 days. Elections for officials completing their terms must take place within 45 days.
After the 2014 military-led coup, PAO elections were held for the first time on Dec 20, 2020, under the 2017 constitution and local election laws, which set the term end date on Dec 19, 2024.
The Bangkok Post talked to observers to get insights on how fierce the upcoming PAO chiefs elections will be and what strategies candidates and their parties will use to win.
The observers say the elections are seen as a make-or-break opportunity for the three parties, as they see the polls as a way to build their support base for the general election in 2027.
In some provinces, the competition takes the form of a direct showdown between Pheu Thai and the PP, such as in the Chiang Mai PAO election.
Bhumjaithai is actively backing candidates in several provinces, even though the party has officially announced it is not fielding anyone under its banner. Meanwhile, some key figures have been openly cheering for specific candidates, signalling their behind-the-scenes involvement.
Support from local people
Former election commissioner Somchai Srisutthiyakorn told the Bangkok Post that winning the PAO chief election requires grassroot networks and effective mobilisation efforts to increase turnout.
Most local politicians belong to influential "big families" that maintain close and long-standing ties with their communities. This makes it challenging for the PP, which lacks such local networks, to gain a foothold in these elections.
While the PP may secure votes in urban areas, securing voters in rural areas remains a hurdle, he said.
Mr Somchai said major parties view local elections as a stepping stone to national politics. Winning local seats allows them to tap into local networks to connect at national levels, reducing the effort required for the 2027 general elections.
"When national politics intersects with local politics and vice versa, it creates a mutually beneficial relationship," he said.
Somchai: Road to national politics
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said local election victories are crucial for national parties aiming to dominate future general elections.
He cited the case of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP).
In 2019, when the PPRP led the government, the party assigned its then secretary-general, Capt Thamanat Prompow, to oversee PAO chief elections in 50 provinces that year. The party earned the backing of major local political families and won PAO seats in 50 provinces.
However, the party split in 2023, with one faction forming the United Thai Nation Party, led by former prime minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, reducing the PPRP's local support base.
Similarly, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the de-facto leader of Pheu Thai, has adopted the same strategy as PPRP in the past, with Capt Thamanat again playing the role of connecting with local influential families.
This mirrors Bhumjaithai's approach of engaging these families to strengthen its base for national politics. The strategy has proven effective, as seen in recent PAO elections, where the incumbent PAO chief resigned early to gain an electoral advantage.
On the other hand, the PP has yet to achieve success in any province. Its reliance on a campaign for change and a new political approach has sparked interest in Bangkok and adjacent provinces or the South, where opposition to Pheu Thai is strong.
Most PP supporters are also middle-class individuals. So, it struggles to penetrate rural strongholds dominated by traditional political networks, Mr Stithorn said.
Stithorn: PP lackingrural support base
Influential families vital
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University's Faculty of Political Science and Law, said major parties are prioritising local elections to build alliances with influential families in various provinces.
Pheu Thai's goal of securing at least 200 MP seats hinges on two factors: Thaksin's influence and the PAO elections.
Mr Olarn said Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai share similar bases rooted in local "big families". Since Thaksin's return to the political scene, he has actively encouraged these families to shift their allegiance from Bhumjaithai to Pheu Thai.
As a result, the local election field has largely become a contest between these two parties. In contrast, the PP's presence in local elections serves only as a "rating check" rather than a viable race.
Regarding the strengths and weaknesses of Pheu Thai in this contest, Mr Olarn said Thaksin himself represents both.
He is both the party's greatest asset and its obstacle, a crucial factor that prevents Pheu Thai from achieving its goal of dominating the electoral landscape as it desires.
A case in point is the PAO election in Chon Buri, a stronghold of the Kunplome family led by Sontaya Kunplome. Despite being urged by Pheu Thai to run under the party's banner, Mr Sontaya declined and instead chose to run under the "We Love Chonburi" group.
Mr Sontaya understands Thaksin is considered a "bitter pill" for Chon Buri voters.
Running under the Pheu Thai name would increase the risk of defeat, as the majority of Chon Buri residents remain aligned with the yellow shirt faction, which opposes Thaksin.
While some groups may support the orange shirts (the PP), it is rare to find people there who are pro-Thaksin red shirts, except in Pattaya.
People from the Northeast retain their admiration for Thaksin, but they are only a small proportion of this eastern province's voters.
Olarn: Thaksin stillhas major role
Slim chance for PP
Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, said local election victories tend to be evenly split between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, leaving little room for the PP.
"The PP's candidates have struggled to create any 'wow' factor. Moreover, the rules governing local elections differ significantly from national ones," he said.
Local elections lack constituency-based voting, and for a candidate to win, he or she only needs to secure more votes over their rival.
Additionally, there is no early voting, and the restrictive voter eligibility rules effectively mean the polls aren't accessible to locals. So, there are only 50% of eligible people to vote, compared to the 70–80% seen in national elections, Mr Yutthaporn said.
Also, most winners of PAO chief elections tend to be familiar faces or previous champions, accounting for nearly 90% of victors, he said.
This makes it difficult for new candidates to emerge, as voters prefer to elect individuals they know and can address their daily issues.
These elections are not about choosing a prime ministerial candidate or a party capable of forming a government, as in national elections, he added.
Yutthaporn: Toughtime for new names