BEJING: China took action on two fronts to gain control of the spiralling coronavirus outbreak gripping the country: reporting a dramatic increase in cases and ousting top officials who failed to check the disease's expansion.
The moves came within hours of each other on Thursday. First, health authorities revealed that cases in Hubei province, where the disease first emerged, had surged by 45% to almost 50,000 after they included a new group of patients. That raised the global tally to almost 60,000, dashing hopes that the epidemic might be easing.
The country's National Health Commission said on Thursday the death toll reached 1,367 as of the end of Wednesday, up 254 from the previous day. Across mainland China, there were 15,152 new confirmed infections on Wednesday, bringing the total number to 59,805.
Then, authorities announced the replacement of the two most senior Communist Party officials in Hubei and its hard-hit capital, Wuhan. Shanghai mayor Ying Yong — a former top judge who once served under President Xi Jinping — was named to replace embattled provincial boss, Jiang Chaoliang.
The shakeup represented the biggest political fallout yet from an outbreak that has in a little over two months shaken confidence in China's leaders and caused countries from the US to Japan to restrict or block visits by its citizens. The decision on the heels of the expanded case tally was reminiscent of a boardroom reset, in which bad numbers are disclosed first to give the new team a clean slate.
"First of all, they are trying to clean up the backlog of untested people who haven't been confirmed," said Ether Yin, partner at Beijing-based consulting firm Trivium China. "It's politically important for them to get the number right before the new party boss comes in so that all the new confirmed cases happened under Jiang Chaoliang's watch. The new party secretary needs a new starting line."
The surprise revision came amid mounting speculation that China was undercounting cases of the new coronavirus strain, as countries around the world struggle to contain a disease that appears to spread when patients show only mild symptoms. Daily declines in new cases in Hubei earlier this week helped push US equity markets to record highs on Wednesday.
US equity futures followed most Asian stock markets lower on Thursday as investors digested the sudden changes at the epicentre of the outbreak. The moves came hours after Mr Xi urged a meeting of the Politburo's supreme Standing Committee to follow through on epidemic-control efforts, which he said had achieved "positive" results.
'All-out' efforts
Mr Xi has ordered "all-out" efforts to contain the disease and forcibly quarantined more than 40 million people in Hubei, while the party appointed a task force led by Premier Li Keqiang to coordinate the nationwide response.
In recent days, the central government sent two senior officials to help lead the response in Hubei, and removed two top members of the provincial health commission from their posts.
Pressure has increased on the party after a nationwide outpouring of grief and fury over the death of Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang, who was accused by local police of spreading rumours after sounding one of the first warnings about the outbreak of the disease now known as COVID-19. Indications that news of Li's death from the disease was also censored by Chinese authorities prompted further outrage on social media.
The reshuffle raises the stakes for Mr Xi as he takes greater personal responsibility for the response. Mr Ying was appointed mayor of Shanghai in January 2017 after a career spent mostly in the financial centre and neighbouring Zhejiang province, including stints under the future president.
Mr Jiang, a former governor of Jilin province who's held posts at several banks, has led Hubei's provincial party committee since October 2016. He had previously led the People's Bank of China's Shenzhen and Guangzhou branches during the Asian financial crisis.
Local officials often bear the brunt when crises threaten the ruling party. China fired more than 100 officials, including the health minister and the mayor of Beijing, after allegations that local governments suppressed information about a similar outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or Sars, in 2003.
"This is a critical juncture of the campaign, so you also want to show resolve - that the central government is winning the war, and is even willing to change the leadership to get that done," said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations and director of Seton Hall University's Center for Global Health Studies. "This is a demonstration of resolve - and the fact that they're willing to take heed of public opinion."
Counting method
The change in counting method will renew concern over the effectiveness the tests currently used to identify stricken patients globally, and raise questions over the true scale of the outbreak that has killed more than 1,300 people, all but two on mainland China.
The traditional nucleic acid test identifies the virus in a patient's body through its specific genetic sequence, but reports of a severe lack of test kits and the unreliability of test results have circulated since the start of the crisis. In Wuhan, people with symptoms like fever and coughing wait for hours in line to get tested. Those who test negative are usually turned away from the hospital.
The issue has cropped up outside China, as well. On Wednesday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that test kits shipped to labs around the world last week have proved faulty.
The spike in number will likely intensify public anger against the government's handling of the crisis. In an update to its treatment guidelines on Feb 5, China's National Health Commission added the category of "clinically diagnosed cases" in recognition of a shortage of nucleic acid tests. Hubei didn't include that category in its count until Thursday, a week later.
Mr Yin, the Trivium partner, said the revision could actually help counter scepticism about China's official data on the outbreak. "If the government is willing to see numbers jump by over 10,000 overnight, I would say that actually shows the government is not hiding the numbers this time," Mr Yin said.
In other updates:
Japan to take steps
Japan will take emergency steps worth 15.3 billion yen ($140 million) against the spread of the virus, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said.
The amount includes 10.3 billion yen from reserve funds in the state budget, Mr Abe said, adding that the cabinet will approve its use on Friday.
Cruise ship virus cases jump
Japan will allow some elderly passengers off the quarantined Diamond Princess and into government-designated lodging, as the number of new coronavirus cases on the vessel jumped to 218.
Australia extends entry ban
Australia will extend its ban on people from mainland China for an extra week, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.
The original 14-day ban was due to expire on Saturday. Australia's National Security Committee will review the need for the ban on a week-by-week basis, said Mr Morrison.
The ban has meant more than 100,000 Chinese students have been unable to start university classes in Australia this term, according to the Australian Broadcasting Corp.
Travel slowdown spreads
The outbreak is causing travel demand across Asia-Pacific to slump, according to ForwardKeys, a travel analytic company.
Airline bookings across the region were 10.5% lower for March and April 2020 compared with last year. That drop excludes trips to and from China and Hong Kong.
Outbound travel from Japanese and South Korean markets were the worst hit, with bookings to worldwide destinations down 17% for the next two months, compared with the same period in 2019.
Outbound bookings from China to other parts of the world for March and April were almost half what they were for the same period last year.
Best China bond rally
Some of the world's major bond funds are rekindling their love for Chinese government debt, as an unexpected rally in recent weeks took the 10-year yield to the lowest level since late 2016.
The asset management arms of The Pictet Group, UBS Group AG and BNP Paribas SA, added China's government and policy bank bonds on bets that the fatal outbreak of the coronavirus will take a toll on the country's already-slowing economy. Its sovereign notes rallied the most in five years last week, as the impact of the disease raised hopes for more aggressive central bank easing.