Coronavirus: Hong Kong's actual Covid count could be up to 200,000 daily, HKU expert says while arguing risks from reopening border with mainland China are small.
Up to 200,000 people a day could be infected with Covid-19 in Hong Kong, according to a health expert who said the risks from a resumption of quarantine-free travel with mainland China were manageable compared with the massive city caseload.
Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), on Monday cited ongoing tests carried out by the institution after the city's chief secretary earlier said land borders could be reopened as early as January 8 with the mainland lifting most pandemic curbs.
Jin said HKU had been testing 10,000 residents in the city a day, estimating that about 150,000 to 200,000 Hongkongers caught Covid-19 every day - a number outstripping any potential imported infections from the mainland.
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"After such a long time, Covid-19 has become endemic. When dealing with imported cases from the mainland, Hong Kong has a certain level of buffer. It is not a given that mainland travellers will cause a surge in cases," he said.
"The number of infections will not increase to a large extent … There will be risks but a low-level one that Hong Kong can afford."
Jin said it would be beneficial to the mainland and Hong Kong if travellers between the two places were required to show negative PCR test results, as this would help intercept imported infections.
He added that mainland arrivals should have three vaccine doses before visiting and that authorities should observe the situation for a week or more after the border reopened before further easing rules.
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Hong Kong on Sunday reported 23,361 Covid-19 infections, 326 of which were imported, as well as 62 related deaths. The city's total tally stood at 2,648,994 cases and 11,869 fatalities.
Chief Secretary Eric Chan Kwok-ki on the same day said the government would set a quota on the number of travellers commuting between Hong Kong and the mainland in the initial stage and increase the capacity of sea, land and air transport to fulfil demand.
Allen Shi Lop-tak, president of the Chinese Manufacturers' Association of Hong Kong, on Monday said in the initial stage of border reopening, priority should be given to people with urgent needs, followed by the business sector with a quota of some 5,000 to 6,000 for the industry at first.
"Business operators have not returned to the mainland for a long time. Many of them wish to head back before Lunar New Year to check on factories, issue double pay and hold meetings with employees," he said.
Shi added that the quota could be increased to 20,000 and in stages to 50,000 or 100,000, but he agreed it should be conducted in a gradual manner.
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The news came as authorities last Friday announced that only infected care home residents with fewer than three vaccine doses would be sent to government-run holding centres.
Residents with serious symptoms can also be sent to the centres regardless of their vaccination status with the approval of medical staff.
Grace Li Fai, an executive council member of the Elderly Services Association of Hong Kong, agreed with the government's decision, saying it was appropriate.
"Cases from care homes are different from that of in March. Many of them have mild symptoms because the vaccination rate has increased from around 20% in March to more than 80% now," she said, referring to the deadly peak of the city's fifth Covid wave last year.
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She added that government support such as antiviral drugs and telecommunication should be given to smaller-scale care homes more efficiently as they lacked inhouse nurses to carry out medical assessments.
But Li warned care homes were facing a serious manpower shortage as many staff were infected, urging authorities to provide more subsidies for operations.
"Currently, not only the elderly are infected but also vaccinated staff. This has created a huge pressure on care homes in terms of manpower," she said.
Li added while a number of staff from care homes had left to work for isolation centres, the remaining ones still had to handle a large amount of administrative work such as reporting to authorities and obtaining antiviral drugs when residents became infected.