JAKARTA - Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto is poised to be the country’s next leader on his third try for the presidency.
Prabowo, 72, claimed victory with a seemingly insurmountable lead in unofficial tallies of Wednesday’s vote after a campaign in which he had the presumed backing of his one-time election rival, incumbent President Joko Widodo, and the hugely popular president’s son as his running mate.
“This victory should be the victory for all Indonesians,” Prabowo said on Wednesday night, when he had close to 60% of the votes according to four pollsters, based on about half of all ballots counted in a sample of polling stations nationwide.
His rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo had 22.4% and 17.6% respectively, the independent pollster Kompas said.
“Quick counts” by reputable pollsters have proven to be accurate in previous elections. An official result is not expected until several weeks after the vote.
The contest pitted popular former governors Ganjar and Anies against the pre-election frontrunner Prabowo, a former special forces commander feared in the 1990s as a top lieutenant of Indonesia’s late strongman ruler Suharto.
The world’s biggest single-day election featured nearly 259,000 candidates vying for 20,600 posts across the archipelago of 17,000 islands, but the focus has been firmly on the race to replace President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo at the helm of the world’s third-largest democracy.
Jokowi was tacitly backing and betting on his former rival as a continuity candidate to preserve his legacy, including a role for his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as Prabowo’s running mate.
To win outright, a candidate needs more than 50% of the votes cast and 20% of the ballot in half of the country’s provinces. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held in June.
Remarkable transformation
Dismissed from the military amid speculation of rights abuses while serving as a special forces commander, exiled in Jordan, and once banned from the United States, Prabowo has undergone a remarkable image transformation since being appointed defence minister in 2019.
In recent years, he has cultivated a persona that is more charismatic statesman than the fiery, pious nationalist he earlier portrayed, analysts say.
During the campaign, his chubby-cheeked AI-generated cartoon avatar made Korean-style finger hearts and cradled his beloved cat, Bobby, to the delight of Gen Z voters.
From an elite Indonesian family and once the son-in-law of late strongman president Suharto, Prabowo has long been accused of involvement in the kidnapping of student activists in 1998 and human rights abuses in Papua and East Timor.
The allegations are unproven, and Prabowo has always denied any responsibility.
Unable to run after serving the maximum two terms, Jokowi appeared to signal his support for once bitter enemy Prabowo, whom he defeated in the 2014 and 2019 elections.
With his 36-year-old son as a possible vice-president, Jokowi may be seeking to retain some influence in government, analysts say.
By appointing Prabowo to his cabinet, Jokowi provided him with a level of validation and visibility he had previously lacked, earning him red carpet treatment as defence minister on trips from Paris to Beijing, and the end of his de facto US travel ban in 2020 when he visited the Pentagon.
His 9 million Instagram followers get to see snaps from his day job, interspersed with offerings of his cats, artistic black and white portraits, and vintage family photographs.
Many young Indonesians have become endeared to Prabowo, particularly his awkward dance moves in public that have gone viral on TikTok, helping him to tap a key demographic.
More than half of Indonesian voters are under 40, with limited knowledge of the darker narratives of his hardline military past and his ascent under Suharto’s autocratic rule.
In a recent television interview, Prabowo, known for his legendary temper, came across as humorous and avuncular.
Referring to his time as a soldier, Prabowo said: “Maybe the perception of me was that I was tough, scary. I am not scary now, right?”
- Analysis: 'The Jokowi Effect'