The best-case scenario for the Chinese market next year could be 7 million arrivals as more tourists from the mainland flock to Malaysia and Singapore thanks to reciprocal visa-free policies, which Thailand still hasn't obtained from China.
After granting a visa exemption for Malaysian arrivals, Beijing is reportedly planning to offer a 30-day visa exemption for Singapore early next year, increasing from the current 15-day exemption offered to Singaporeans.
Sisdivachr Cheewarattanaporn, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (Atta), said with a shared culture, Chinese-speaking communities and more confidence in safety compared with Thailand, more Chinese are choosing Singapore for their holidays.
He said even though Thailand maintains a significant market share of China's overall outbound travellers, the situation next year will remain challenging as Thailand competes with domestic tourism in China and other countries that have mutual visa agreements with China, a factor that will likely strengthen airlines' seat capacity.
As of Nov 15, 1.4 million Chinese travelled to Malaysia this year, which recently announced a visa exemption for Chinese from Dec 1.
Singapore received 1.12 million Chinese travellers in the first 10 months.
For Thailand, the number of Chinese arrivals tallied 3.1 million as of Dec 3, a far cry from around 10 million in 2019.
"In China, some people still have high spending power in key cities and secondary cities, but young adults have been severely affected by unemployment. The challenge is how to attract those who can still afford to pay," said Mr Sisdivachr.
He said Thailand stands a chance to increase the Chinese market to 7 million next year, up from an estimate of less than 4 million for this year.
Atta together with the Tourism Authority of Thailand held their first China roadshow this year in Shanghai and Chengdu from Dec 11-15.
Adith Chairattananon, honorary secretary-general of Atta, said if Thailand aims to increase inbound tourism to 35 million next year, China should be the top priority to fulfil that target.
Mr Adith said other markets such as Europe, the Middle East, Japan and South Korea might not be able to increase capacity compared with China, which still has room to grow.
He said Thailand should look to increase Chinese visitors from secondary cities, targeting those who haven't been here before, travelling with tour groups via chartered flights in order to assure safety to some extent.
Potential targets include Anhui, Tianjin, Shandong and Guangzhou.
Edison Chen, vice-president of destination marketing and strategy alliances at Trip.com, said tourism revenue from outbound Chinese travellers on its platform has recovered to 80% of the 2019 level, driven by independent tourists, which rebounded quicker than tour groups.
The trend also indicates the majority of tourists on business trips extend their stays after taking care of business, according to the platform.
